2025 Kentucky Derby predictions, odds, date, horses, post positions: Surprising picks from horse racing expert

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It has been a decade since a jockey had back-to-back wins in the Kentucky Derby, a feat that Brian Hernandez Jr. can pull off when the 2025 Kentucky Derby goes to post on Saturday at Churchill Downs. He rode Mystik Dan to victory a year ago and will be aboard Burnham Square on Saturday. Mystik Dan was a 20-1 longshot, while Burnham Square is 12-1 in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds. Just three 2025 Kentucky Derby horses are bigger favorites than the Blue Grass Stakes winner, who has prevailed in three of his last four starts.

Burnham Square will exit from the 9-post, while just inside him is Journalism, who has won his last four starts and is 3-1 among the 2025 Kentucky Derby contenders. With the Kentucky Derby annually featuring the largest field in North American racing, you’ll want to see what Santa Anita-based racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, considering the success she’s had handicapping this race.

In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, she gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.

She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young’s win in the $20 million Saudi Cup, Journalism’s win in the San Felipe Stakes and Sandman’s win in the Arkansas Derby this year. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.

Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Yu is completely fading Sandman, even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top favorites. At 6-1, just two horses have shorter Kentucky Derby odds, but Sandman’s resume doesn’t quite stack up to those two. Journalism (3-1) has won four of five career starts, while Sovereignty (5-1) has won or finished runner-up in four of five career starts. Meanwhile, Sandman has won fewer than half of his eight career races and finished in the top two in just four of those eight starts.

Sandman’s top Equibase Speed Figure of 104 leaves lots to be desired. Four 2025 Kentucky Derby horses have higher speed figures, while another three match him. Plus, the colt’s sire, Tapit, greatly disappointed in his Kentucky Derby start, finishing ninth in 2004 despite, just like Sandman, being the third-favorite. Sandman’s trainer, Mark Casse, is 0-for-10 in his Kentucky Derby career, and Yu sees him moving to 0-for-11 after Saturday. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another curveball: Yu is high on Grande, even though he is a 20-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Grande has just three starts to his name, but he has shown progression in each of those races.

Grande recorded a maiden victory at Gulfstream Park in January and followed that up by winning a 1 1/8-mile claiming race by 2 1/2 lengths. He secured a second-place finish in the Wood Memorial in April in his first graded-stakes race. In addition, Grande is trained by the legendary Todd Pletcher, who has two Kentucky Derby winners on his resume. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks

Moreover, Yu is high on a double-digit longshot who has been getting over the Churchill Downs surface “perfectly” this week. She is including this horse in her 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She’s sharing which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2025 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out.