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The 2025 Kentucky Derby will be held on Saturday at Churchill Downs and the 20-horse 2025 Kentucky Derby field is set. The Kentucky Derby 2025 will mark the 151st Run for the Roses and the return to action for legendary trainer Bob Baffert, a six-time Kentucky Derby winner who was banned for three years after Medina Spirit failed a drug test and had his 2021 title stripped. He’ll have two chances at a seventh winner with Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Citizen Bull (20-1) and Wood Memorial winner Rodriguez (12-1).

Meanwhile, Journalism is the 3-1 favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds following three graded-stakes victories, including a Santa Anita Derby win. The large field with a wide-range of running styles can often make the first leg of the Triple Crown feel like a crapshoot, but understanding the connections, pedigree and recent results can give you an advantage. SportsLine’s horse racing experts are breaking down the Kentucky Derby 2025 from all angles.

Handicapper Jody Demling has hit 11 Derby-Oaks doubles in the last 16 years. He’s also nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and predicted the winner of the Preakness 10 of the last 20 years. Anyone who has followed him on those picks on betting sites like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge. You can see Demling’s full projected leaderboard at SportsLine.

Here are three Kentucky Derby longshots to target, according to Demling:

Burnham Square (12-1)

The leading points earner on the Kentucky Derby trail has reliably put himself in contention throughout his career, with three wins, a second and a third in six career starts. He’s a closer with a flare for the dramatic, winning the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) by a nose after coming from last in a seven-horse field at Keeneland. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. races out of Churchill Downs and he’s coming off a Kentucky Derby win last year with Mystik Dan, so he should help get him into a position to make a charge down the stretch.

“The son of Liam’s Map won the Holy Bull Stakes earlier in the prep season but was fourth in the Fountain of Youth,” Demling told SportsLine. “He got one more shot and was impressive in winning the Blue Grass Stakes. He’s a colt that is still improving.” You can bet Burnham Square now at TwinSpires and get up to $400 in bonus bets.

Luxor Cafe (15-1)

American Pharoah has a case as the greatest American thoroughbred in history as the only horse to win the United States grand slam. This is one of his sons and he was shipped to Japan shortly after he was foaled in 2022, where he qualified for the Kentucky Derby with an impressive win at the Fukuryu Stakes earlier this year. Only three Triple Crown winners have sired offspring that went on to win the Kentucky Derby, but Luxor Cafe’s half-brother Publisher is also in the field.

“(Luxor Cafe’s) resume looks better after the UAE Derby because he crushed the winner (Admire Daytona) previously. He shipped into Churchill late but still looks good and could be a surprise,” Demling said.

Grande (20-1)

Considering his connections and his pedigree, this horse is clearly flying under the radar entering the 151st Run for the Roses. Jockey John Velazquez is a three-time Derby winner, trainer Todd Pletcher has won the first leg of the Triple Crown twice and sire Curlin was third in 2007 before going on to win the Preakness Stakes later that year. He’s only made three starts in his career but looked competitive in his stakes debut despite not getting a clean trip.

“He’ll run well and should like the distance. He was second in the Wood Memorial and raced wide the entire time,” Demling said. Velazquez wasn’t in the mount for the Wood Memorial but does have experience on Grande after guiding him to wins in his first two career starts. 1/ST BET will give you up to $250 in bonus bets for the Kentucky Derby, so you could give Grande a whirl.

How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Demling is also high on a colossal double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside” and has revealed his pick to win the 151st Run for the Roses. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard and betting tickets, over at SportsLine.

SportsLine also has Kentucky Derby 2025 picks from long-time horse racing journalist Gene Menez, who gave out last year’s winner Mystik Dan (18-1) as a live longshot. You can also find 2025 Kentucky Derby bets from Michelle Yu, a racing analyst who has already hit winners in multiple prep races this year.

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