There is little more fun in March Madness than a Cinderella. A team that comes out of nowhere and upends a favorite, surprising the nation and bringing fans along for their magical night.
The chase for a national championship on the women’s side is still primarily a competition between the top four seeds, who play at their home courts in the first and second rounds. Double-digit seeds reaching the Sweet 16 are still a rarity. Forget about a long run. A No. 1 seed has won 32 of the 42 championships, and no team seeded lower than No. 4 has won it all.
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With that in mind, there are higher-seeded Cinderellas that live deep into the night, and there are lower-seeded ones that might live for but one 24-hour period.
Here’s a look at who you should pencil deep into the bracket, and who’s good for a first weekend upset.
Spokane 1 region: No. 6 Florida State
Florida State (23-8) might be the safest Sweet 16 Cinderella bet of the bunch. Head coach Brooke Wyckoff didn’t schedule a tough non-conference schedule, with a win over Illinois and a two-point loss to Tennessee highlighting the pack. The Seminoles went 3-6 in Quad 1 games that largely included the top of the ACC competition.
They have Ta’Niya Latson (24.9 ppg, 45.1 FG%), the leading scorer in DI and a fringe National Player of the Year contender who can light up the scoreboard. The junior guard scored 40 on Virginia Tech and scored at least 30 in seven games.
The real reason to like FSU is their bracket. The Seminoles face George Mason, the A-10 bid-stealers, in the first round and could meet up with No. 3 LSU in the second. LSU head coach Kim Mulkey said again on Sunday night that Flau’jae Johnson and Aneesah Morrow, both nursing injuries, will be good to go for the tournament. But if they’re not good to go, it’s an open lane for FSU to take advantage of the Tigers missing two of their three leading scorers.
Spokane 4 region: No. 6 Iowa
No. 6 Iowa is giving Cinderella energy in its first season post-Caitlin Clark Era. Senior Lucy Olsen, a transfer from Villanova, found her groove about a month ago and the team built up around her. The Hawkeyes upset USC and nearly took down UCLA, showing they have the roster construction to compete with the nation’s best.
Head coach Jan Jensen said at the Big Ten tournament that their hopes in the Big Dance would, as always, come down to the bracket. There’s a path to make the second weekend with a few early upset watches in the bottom group of Spokane 4. First, they’ll have to overcome a wannabe Cinderella in No. 11 Murray State. The Racers live up to their name, leading DI in scoring offense (87.8 ppg) and top 10 in possessions per 40. They protect the ball while forcing steals on the other end.
After back-to-back runs to the national title game, how far will the Iowa Hawkeyes go this year? (Keith Gillett/IconSportswire)
Spokane 5 region: No. 5 Tennessee
Tennessee, which has never missed an NCAA tournament in the game’s history, looks different under first-year head coach Kim Caldwell. The Lady Vols run a hockey substitution system that subs in a full five (the starters are “first five”) about every two minutes. They maximize the number of possessions, taking 3-pointers at a high clip and forcing turnovers.
Though the record is so-so, the complete picture shows they’re in nearly every game. With the exception of a 24-point regular season loss to Kentucky last month, Tennessee didn’t lose by more than eight. The roster can climb back into games quickly and exhaust opponents with their speed.
If they get through to the Sweet 16, the Lady Vols might like their chances against Texas. They only lost by four to the Longhorns in January.
Spokane 1 region: No. 10 Harvard
The Ivy League continues to build depth among its programs, placing a record three in the tournament this season. Harvard is the Ivy of them all, with senior guard Harmoni Turner (22.5 ppg) leading the way. Turner scored a season-high 44 points to lead the Crimson over five-time consecutive champion Princeton in the Ivy League tournament semifinals. They defeated Columbia for their first tournament title.
Harvard surfaced on the scene the first week following its overtime victory over Indiana, which earned a No. 9 seed. The Crimson defense keeps opponents to 53.5 ppg (fourth in DI), and they limit turnovers while maximizing steals. They could cause No. 7 Michigan State problems offensively and move into the next round, where a matchup of Turner and NC State’s guards would be a fun watch.
Spokane 4 region: No. 12 Fairfield
Fairfield, a mid-major power, is making its second consecutive appearance after losing to Indiana as a No. 13 seed a year ago. Leading scorers Meghan Anderson and Kaety L’Amoreaux, as well as head coach Carly Thibault-DuDonis, can use that experience in a meeting with No. 5 Kansas State.
The Stags’ defense is tough (78.9 points per 100 possessions ranks eighth), and offensively, they’re highly efficient from inside the arc (56.5 FG%, fourth). Kansas State said center Ayoka Lee, who led them to an 18-1 record when in the lineup, is healthy for the tournament. The fifth-year senior has played five minutes since Jan. 19.
The Spokane 4 is a fun one for potential Cinderella selections.
No. 12 FGCU is a March favorite with a roster full of shooters (their positions are literally listed as such) and could find itself in a high-scoring affair with No. 3 Oklahoma. And No. 10 South Dakota State is an experienced tournament group with a top-20 rebounding rate. The Jackrabbits, led by all-Summit League first-teamers Brooklyn Meyer and Paige Meyer, face No. 7 Oklahoma State in the first round.
Birmingham 2 region: No. 13 Norfolk State
The Spartans (30-4) are making their third appearance with a record-best seed line. Their defense is also top-10, which could give a stumbling Maryland program problems. The Terps slid into hosting duties as a No. 4 seed, but are a shell of their earlier selves with injuries to Bri McDaniel and point guard Shyanne Sellers. Head coach Brenda Frese said at the Big Ten tournament it’s clear Sellers, a projected WNBA Draft selection, is doing what she can and is not 100%.
There will be a familiar name in the Spartans lineup. Diamond Johnson paces the offense, averaging 19 points, 3.9 assists and 3.7 steals per game. Johnson is in her second season with the Spartans after playing 19 games as a freshman with Rutgers and two seasons with NC State.
Birmingham 3 region: No. 12 South Florida
The Bulls, under 25-year head coach Jose Fernandez, are mid-major powers. They are solid at shooting 3s and as good at preventing them from opponents, a potential issue for No. 5 Tennessee’s run-and-gun style that consists of early 3s in the shot clock. The two are evenly matched on the boards and could find themselves in a close game late.
The Lady Vols have dropped too many of those close games and ended the season losing three of four. They’ve had two weeks off to recuperate and regroup. This one comes down to if you like and believe in Caldwell’s system as it exists for this current roster, or you don’t. And if Tennessee isn’t knocking down 3s, it could be South Florida’s to lose.
