For just the second time in modern NCAA Tournament history, the Final Four features all No. 1 seeds. The convergence of Auburn, Duke, Florida and Houston in San Antonio marks a fitting finale to one of the chalkiest postseasons in recent memory.
As predictable as the 2025 edition of March Madness has been, the collective strength of the semifinals in South Texas should make this one of the more difficult Final Fours to project.
All four No. 1 seeds bring different qualities to the Alamodome. Comparing the attributes that make each run, Saturday’s Final Four contests could shake out as follows:
Auburn vs. Florida
Clatter as the 2024–25 season unfolded that the SEC could match or best the Big East’s 1985 record of three representatives in the Final Four did not come through. Still, having half of the semifinal field rates as impressive.
A sign of just how much conference bloat has changed college basketball: When Georgetown and St. John’s met as No. 1 seeds in the Final Four 40 years ago, it was their fourth matchup of the campaign.
Nearly two months after their lone meeting, Florida looks to replicate its 90–81 win at Auburn. Another outstanding 3-point shooting effort from Walter Clayton Jr., who went 4-of-8 the last time out vs. the Tigers, is essential.
Clayton’s range has been the catalyst of the Gators’ Final Four run in general, beginning with his five triples in the regular-season finale vs. Ole Miss. Since then, Clayton has hit 13 combined over three games in the SEC Tournament and 14 in the Gators’ four NCAA Tournament contests.
Beyond the sheer volume Clayton has delivered from deep, his presence in the clutch has been unmatched in this postseason. Facing an Auburn defense that gives up only six made 3-pointers per game, Clayton’s hot streak is an X-factor.
So, too, is the health of Tigers All-America big man Johni Broome. The injury Broome sustained late in his 25-point, 14-rebound masterclass to beat Michigan State in the Elite Eight looked much worse than it turned out.
Broome said Thursday he is ready to go vs. Florida. Auburn played without the big man for a pair of SEC games in January and won both, but the Tigers become a much more perimeter-oriented team offensively without Broome.
If he’s not at 100 percent, Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh could be poised to exploit the paint and free up Clayton as the game progresses.
Winner: Florida claims another high-scoring shootout.
Duke vs. Houston
Saturday’s second semifinal offers some remarkable contrasts. Houston coach Kelvin Sampson is one of the game’s elder statesmen, a longtime fixture in college basketball who reached his first Final Four in 2002 — a year before Duke coach Jon Scheyer debuted as a high school standout for Glenbrook North High School.
The theme of old school vs. new also manifests in Sampson’s Houston team playing a methodical style predicated on suffocating defense to set the tone, while Scheyer’s Blue Devils get up and down the court to the tune of 83.7 points per game.
Now, depicting the comparative talent levels between the teams as another contrast would be flat-out wrong — even if some have made that comparison in the lead-up to the Final Four. Houston has a variety of former top-100 recruits, including star veteran LJ Cryer.
None of the Cougars came to college with the level of prep stardom that Cooper Flagg had before arriving at Duke, however. Flagg is arguably the most high-profile freshman since Duke predecessor Zion Williamson and is two wins away from potentially matching Anthony Davis as a first-year national champion and national player of the year.
Along with the hype coming in — which Flagg has met, if not exceeded, in an 18.9-point, 7.5-rebound, 4.2-assist campaign — Flagg also gives Duke its most difficult quality to overcome: its size.
The 6-foot-9 Flagg can go inside but functions at times like a combo guard. That on its own creates headaches for opponents defensively and is unlike anything Houston’s nation-leading 58.3-points-per-game defense has faced.
But as the nation’s longest team in all of college basketball this year, per KenPom.com, Duke creates as many defensive mismatches as offensive. With 6-foot-7 fellow freshman phenom Kon Knueppel on the wing and 7-foot-2 Khaman Maluach down low, Duke has held opponents to 62.6 points per game.
Houston’s uniquely adept defense forces even the most prolific offenses into a rock fight behind Joseph Tugler, Mylik Wilson and Emanuel Sharp. But can the Cougars find the offense to outscore Duke, even in a low-scoring game?
Cryer might need to summon an individual performance akin to Caleb Love’s for Arizona against Duke in the Sweet 16.
Winner: Duke gets just enough offense to escape Houston’s defensive clamps.
