The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament – arguably one of the best four-day stretches on the entire sports calendar every year – has come and gone. 

With so much happening in such a short time, OutKick is here to break down the biggest storylines from the first two rounds of March Madness.

Let’s not waste any more time.

What Happened To The NCAA Tournament Bracket-Busters?

If there’s one thing that makes the NCAA Tournament great, it’s that seemingly any team can beat any other on any given day. In fact, since 2018, there has been at least one 4-seed or higher to lose in the first round. 

We even had the first-ever 16-seed beat a 1-seed in 2018 (UMBC over Virginia) and then it happened again in 2023 (Fairleigh Dickinson over Purdue). 

Heading into 2025, at least one top-four seed had lost in the First Round in 15 of the past 16 NCAA Tournaments (2017 was the only exception). Last year, two of them lost (No. 3 Kentucky and No. 4 Auburn). In addition, a 15-seed had beaten a 2-seed in three of the past four years. 

Not this year, though. Not even close. In fact, 14 of the 16 teams seeded 1-4 won their First-Round game by at least 10 points. The only two that didn’t – Texas A&M and Alabama – both won by nine. Nine of the 16 teams won by at least 20. 

The highest seeds to advance to the Round of 32 were a pair of 12 seeds, Colorado State and McNeese State. CSU was favored over No. 5 Memphis, so that wasn’t even technically an upset. 

Drake, an 11-seed, defeated sixth-seeded Missouri. And that’s it. Sure, there were a couple of 10 seeds over 7s (Arkansas beat Kansas and New Mexico beat Marquette), but those aren’t major upsets. 

Of the three first-round “upsets,” none were all that shocking. In fact, I predicted two of them. 

The biggest upset of the tournament came in the Round of 32, when No. 10 Arkansas shocked No. 2 St. John’s, ending Rick Pitino’s bid for a Final Four return. 

Even still, Arkansas is coached by John Calipari, who is no stranger to deep NCAA Tournament runs. I’m not sure a team coached by Calipari can really be called a “Cinderella” squad. 

And the Razorbacks are the only team in the Sweet 16 seeded higher than six. In other words, hopefully you picked a lot of chalk in your NCAA Tournament bracket pool, like Jay Williams, who got publicly roasted for doing so. 

Selection Committee Has Some Explaining To Do 

You might think that with very few upsets the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee did a good job picking and seeding teams. But that’s not the case. 

First, as mentioned above, Colorado State being favored over Memphis in the Rams’ 12-5 “upset” win was an egregious miscarriage of justice. A double-digit seed should never be favored over a top-six seed. Ever. 

That happened because the committee got TWO things wrong (with one matchup): CSU was under-seeded AND Memphis was over-seeded. 

However, neither of those are the biggest mistakes the committee made. Having both Gonzaga and UConn as 8-seeds was terrible. Gonzaga, a team that ranked in the top 10 in NET (the NCAA’s main rating statistic, by the way), having to play Houston in the Round of 32 was completely unfair – to both teams. 

It also robbed college basketball fans of a very good Gonzaga team advancing further. The Zags showed how good they were when they pummeled Georgia in the First Round, and they nearly upset Houston in the Round of 32. 

The same is true of UConn, although to a lesser degree. Still, having the two-time defending NCAA Tournament champion as an 8-seed is indefensible. The Huskies would have beaten No. 1 Florida if not for a late-game collapse. 

Then, you look at teams that got higher seeds, like Memphis and Missouri, and wonder how that happened. 

It’s never going to be perfect when you’re trying to rank 68 teams for the NCAA Tournament, but the goal is to have the 16 best teams left after the first weekend. Sure, upsets happen. However, the way the 2025 NCAA Tournament was seeded, it was impossible for all the best teams to advance. And that’s a problem. 

Top-Heavy Tournament Has A Great Chance To Make History 

Only once in the history of the NCAA Tournament have all four 1-seeds advanced to the Final Four (2008). This year’s version is set up for a repeat. 

I’ve written and said many times that this year’s 1-seeds are clearly the four best teams in the NCAA Tournament. While that might seem obvious, it’s not usually the case. Generally, there is little separation (from a ratings’ perspective) between the top 8–12 teams. 

This year, however, Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn were head-and-shoulders above everyone else. The betting odds indicated that, too – all four 1-seeds were odds-on favorites to reach the Final Four, which is almost never the case. 

Florida and Houston faced ridiculously tough competition in the Round of 32, as mentioned above, but both survived. Duke had no problems getting to the Sweet 16, and Auburn won by double-digits in the Round of 32. 

It’s certainly not a guarantee that all of them will reach the NCAA Tournament semifinals, but I definitely wouldn’t bet against it.