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Round 1 of the NFL Draft has come and gone, with the Titans opening Thursday’s festivities in Green Bay by selecting quarterback Cam Ward and the Chiefs closing things out by taking offensive tackle Josh Simmons. In between those two picks, 30 more prospects were selected, including the Giants trading back into the first round for Jaxson Dart and the hometown Packers delighting the crowd by selecting a receiver (Matthew Golden) in the first round for the first time since 2002.
One prospect who did not hear his name called on Thursday is Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders, who at one point seemed to be close to a lock to go in the top 10 picks but is still looking for a team heading into Day 2 of the NFL Draft. He features prominently in the NFL Draft betting markets available at two major sportsbooks on Friday morning, with the Browns a -170 favorite at FanDuel and a -250 favorite at DraftKings to be the team to select Sanders. In addition, Sanders is the +100 favorite to be the No. 33 overall pick at FanDuel, while DraftKings has a predraft special still listed that the Raiders will be the team to draft both Shedeur Sanders and his brother Shilo Sanders at +3000.
Sanders isn’t the only player highlighted at the two sportsbooks, as both have markets for the team to draft Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe and Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo. The Browns are also the favorite at both books to draft Milroe (+195 at FanDuel, +200 at DraftKings) despite the expectation that they will end up with Sanders, highlighting that the market is convinced the Browns will use one of their two early second-round picks (No. 33 and No. 36) on a quarterback. The market for Skattebo is less honed in on one team with less certainty on the range he could be picked, but the Patriots are favored at both books for the running back (+550 at FanDuel, +600 at DraftKings).
We’re going to go through every NFL Draft prop at both DraftKings and FanDuel and determine the best value play in every market, including the players to go Nos. 33 and 34, the head-to-head prospect matchups available and the position of first pick for the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Rams, who both traded out of the first round on Thursday.
DraftKings NFL Draft prop picks
Best bets:
- Matchup: Luther Burden over Trey Amos (-165)
- Matchup: Nic Scourton over TraVeyon Henderson (+120)
Team to draft Shedeur Sanders: Rams +1200
The expectation is that Sanders ends up on the Browns, but I would definitely not lay -350 on them at DraftKings even if a much better number wasn’t available at FanDuel. I’ll also point out that the Las Vegas Review-Journal is reporting that “multiple league sources indicated on Thursday that they thought the Browns will use [the No. 33 and 36] picks to fill other needs.” That opens the door to back another team, and I like the idea of taking a longer shot considering what’s possible. Even the Steelers could trade a 2026 Round 2 pick to get into position for Sanders if they really wanted him, and it’s also possible they land a receiver-needy team offers a deal for George Pickens that includes a second-round pick. But I’m going to back the Rams, who are now picking at No. 46 and could develop Sanders behind Matthew Stafford for a year or two. I also don’t mind sprinkling on the Dolphins (+4000) or Cardinals (+10000), two teams ESPN’s Adam Schefter mentioned as wild cards for Sanders in early April.
Team to draft Jalen Milroe: Browns +200
I’m backing the favorite here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Browns took Milroe over Sanders early in Round 2 despite the reporting they’d focus on other positions, though it seems more likely he’d be the target at the top of Round 3. The Saints were reportedly impressed by Milroe in private workouts so I think they have to be in play as well, but at +350 there isn’t a big enough gap in the odds to overcome the Browns having two earlier picks.
Team to draft Cam Skattebo: Dolphins +5000
Skattebo may not even be selected until Day 3 considering the depth at the running back position, and that puts basically every team in play as everyone is just looking to add to roster depth with talented players at that point. So the smart play here is to avoid any of the favorites (most considered to be RB-needy teams) and instead sprinkle on a longshot hoping to get lucky. The Dolphins have prioritized the RB position in the middle rounds the last few years and just lost Raheem Mostert this offseason, so I think making them tied for the second longest odds behind the Falcons doesn’t make much sense.
Draft matchup: Nic Scourton +120 over TreVeyon Henderson (best bet)
Henderson is probably the top available back left on most boards, while Scourton saw expected first-round pick Mike Green fall to Day 2 along with fringe first rounders like Donovan Ezeiruaku and JT Tuimoloau, among others. But edge should be a much more targeted position early on Day 2 than running back, where there will be a lot of good options available throughout Friday. If the odds were -110 on each side I’d lean toward Henderson, but I can’t back him at -155 and instead like the value on Scourton.
Draft matchup: Luther Burden -165 over Trey Amos (best bet)
The presence of Will Johnson on the best available list is huge here, as Burden is the clear best receiver available and someone I think has a great chance of going in the first three picks. The Browns could use both corner and receiver help after passing on Travis Hunter, but taking Burden first and then a corner makes more sense considering the available talent if they are looking at both positions. The Texans have widely been expected to go offensive line first but passed on the chance to draft Josh Simmons or Josh Conerly when they traded down, and they have a big need at receiver as well. The Titans could pull the classic “pair our rookie QB with an impact rookie WR” move some teams try after taking a quarterback in Round 1.
Position of Texans first pick: Wide receiver +150
This had better odds during the draft when the Texans got as high as -500 to take an offensive lineman first prior to trading their first-round pick away, but even though that position is at a more reasonable -155 now, I think you’re locked in to Aireontae Ersery being the pick after Simmons and Conerly were selected late on Thursday, and it makes more sense to just play him to be the 34th pick at FanDuel if you want to go that route. Even if the Texans pass on Burden, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are better options at receiver than anyone else that remains past Ersery at offensive line. I did have this as a best bet when it was +300 early on Friday, but the odds shifted enough that it’s just a lean at this point. This would be a best bet but it was taken off the board right before publication, so keep an eye on the market to see if it reopens.
Position of Rams first pick: Linebacker +950
We probably need Carson Schwesinger to make it to No. 46 for this to happen, but it’s also possible the Rams have a higher grade than consensus on someone like Danny Stutsman to fill a clear position of need. I also don’t mind playing offensive lineman or DL/edge on these teams in ranges where the player pool is up in the air considering how many of each you need to compete in the NFL game to game, and of the two DL/edge is a much better value at +750.
Position of Mr. Irrelevant: Safety +1200
The Chiefs currently have the last pick in the draft, and they’ve taken a safety on Day 3 in five of the last eight drafts, including twice with their last pick. Sometimes those players get developed into corners, as was the case with L’Jarius Sneed and Nazeeh Johnson, and sometimes they turn into starters at the safety position, like 2024 fourth-rounder Jaden Hicks. Safety is a position where the team still needs depth even after signing veteran Mike Edwards in April, and I expect the Chiefs will be hunting for the right developmental safety on Day 3 once again, so let’s take a shot on that player being Mr. Irrelevant at these odds.
Pass on the one-way Raiders to draft Shedeur and Shilo Sanders prop.
FanDuel NFL Draft prop picks
Best bets:
- Matchup: Dylan Sampson over Cam Skattebo (-154)
- Team to draft Cam Skattebo: Titans (+2500)
No. 33 overall pick: Luther Burden +1900
I’m not going with Sanders at even odds to be the pick here, and the odds aren’t good enough on the next few players (TraVeyeon Henderson, Mason Taylor, Jalen Milroe, Mike Green, Aireontae Ersery) to back any of them. I like playing Burden here, who is a first-round talent that fills an area of need for the Browns after they passed on Travis Hunter. I was looking at Nic Scourton at +2900 after they showed interest in him in the predraft process, but with him dropping to +1700, I’d prefer rolling with Burden. This conflicts with our Texans pick in the DraftKings section, but just going by the odds on the board I think he’s the best value here as well.
No. 34 overall pick: Luther Burden +650
If the Browns don’t take Burden, I think the Texans will, although the market shifted heavily toward Jayden Higgins being the favorite here before the market came off the board around noon ET, so it’s possible someone knows something. Either player would be a great complement for Nico Collins and when healthy Tank Dell, and the team will have plenty of time to build out the offensive line over the rest of Day 2 with four more picks after this one. With that being the case, why reach for your biggest need when you have the opportunity to fill your second biggest need with a much better prospect? I loved Burden as a best bet here but it’s just a lean with the Higgins development. If the market becomes available once again, don’t rule out TraVeyon Henderson here either.
Team to draft Shedeur Sanders: Steelers +1100
We backed the Rams in the DraftKings section with odds the same for them, the Jets and the Steelers, but at FanDuel the Rams are +950 and the Jets +1000, which is enough separation from the Steelers for me to back them to find a way to get into the second round to address their biggest need. Pairing their third-rounder (No. 83) with a 2026 second-round pick would normally be enough to get to No. 45, while pairing their fourth-rounder (No. 123) with the future second would be enough to get to No. 56. The 45th pick would notably put them one spot ahead of the Rams.
Team to draft Jalen Milroe: Browns +195
We’re sticking with the favorite here at about the same odds as we have at DraftKings, as the Saints don’t provide any additional value to what we saw at the other book to make us pivot.
Team to draft Cam Skattebo: Titans +2500 (best bet)
This is definitely one that’s more worth attacking at DraftKings, as the longest odds there are +6000 versus only +3400 at FanDuel, while the team we took earlier sees their odds cut in half with the Dolphins only at +2500. At that number I’d rather back Tennessee, who was only +2000 over at DraftKings. The Titans have two picks in the fourth round and two more in the fifth round, and most importantly they had Skattebo in for a predraft visit. If he is available as expected heading into Day 3, this is going to be a nice lottery ticket to hold.
Draft matchup: Dylan Sampson -154 over Cam Skattebo (best bet)
We’ve talked about how I expect Skattebo is going to be available on Day 3 due to the great depth at running back in this class. One such player who should be locked into Day 2 is Sampson, who has a solid chance of going in Round 2. This is my favorite of any draft matchup available on the board at either side.
Draft matchup: Tyler Shough +108 over Jalen Milroe (best bet)
This feels like a coin flip to me with both players rated as Round 2-3 prospects, so I like getting plus odds to back either quarterback. Milroe probably has more potential to be a starting quarterback, which would explain why the odds are where they are, but teams who don’t need a QB1 may prefer the higher floor of Shough and pick him to develop as the long-term QB2 for their offense.
Draft matchup: Quinshon Judkins +800 over TraVeyon Henderson
This isn’t one I’d play, but it’s the only side I’d play if I wanted action on it with Henderson at -3000. I fully expect him to be selected ahead of Judkins, but the implied odds of backing a -3000 play are nearly 97% and there just can’t be that much certainty on anything at this point of the draft.
Position of Texans first pick: Running back +1300
We weren’t even getting plus odds on receiver before FanDuel took this market off the board, so I think we have to look in a different direction if it reopens. Tight end was a solid value play at +1700 with Mason Taylor still on the board and Elijah Arroyo spending a top-30 visit with the Texans, but I’m going to go with running back at the odds available prior to the market getting taken down considering they had some buzz as a potential late first-round team looking to upgrade its rushing attack. TraVeyon Henderson is a solid value at No. 34 while the Texans also spent time with Kaleb Johnson and Quinshon Judkins during the draft process among other running backs.
Position of Rams first pick: Defensive line/edge rusher +1000
We’re getting better odds here than we did at DraftKings (+750) and even better than the odds FanDuel has at linebacker, so this is the only way to look for a value play even with all the hits the Rams have had at the position already over the last few drafts. The Rams did reportedly have Shemar Turner in for a predraft visit and his range is around where the Rams are now picking in Round 2.
Position of Mr. Irrelevant: Safety +1200
Running this play back from our DraftKings section for the same reasons, with the Chiefs still having possession of the pick. However, it’s worth noting they did pick up an extra Day 3 pick in their swap with the Eagles, so maybe that’ll be the one used on the safety position they tend to target late in drafts.
