We are fresh off the NCAA Tournament bracket release, which means true college hoops-heads have already been knee-deep in their research for days. Anyone who treats tourney time like Christmas in March likely has a system they rely on. Maybe they look for teams with seniors in the backcourt when picking upsets. Maybe the eye test is their Bible. Some no doubt have their own models and analytics that reveal truths only to them.
If you’re looking for an edge of your own, or if you have one but could always use more info, we have a quick cheat sheet for you. After looking at years of tournament data, some helpful statistical trends revealed themselves. Whether or not you use them to help make your picks is up to you, but more data has never been a bad thing when trying to tame March Madness. So here are seven things to know so you’re happier with your bracket.
Remember, chalk is your friend
Upsets are the lifeblood of March Madness, and picking the right one can certainly vault a bracket into poll position in a pool. But don’t let the shine from one bright call blind you to the numbers. The statistical reality is that higher seeds — a.k.a. “chalky” picks — are the smart bet. Going back to 2014, higher-seeded teams are 458-201 (69.5 percent) over the first four rounds. Breaking it down by round, it looks like this:
Higher-seed record by round since 2014
RoundRecordWin %
That includes the 8 vs. 9 matchups in the first round, the fairly common 4 vs. 5 matchups in the second round, and the 1 vs. 2 matchups that happen in the Elite Eight. Those games, while technically upsets, are usually between two evenly matched teams. Even with those near-50-50 contests included, the higher seeds are statistically the safer choice overall.
That is especially true for the top three seeds in each region. Since 1985, teams seeded 1-3 are collectively 1,165-434 (72.8 percent). Of the 39 tournament champions, 34 were a top-three seed.
Top-three seeds in the NCAA Tournament since 1985
SeedRecordChampions
So don’t overthink it. Math tells us the smart move is to generally go chalk, and be judicious with our upset picks.
When it comes to upsets, there’s a sweet spot
For the sake of time and impact, let’s ignore results that are upsets only in the numerical sense and focus on the ones that boost or bust brackets. It’s nice to be correct about a 9 over an 8 or a 10 over a 7, but if two teams are within four seeds of one another, history tells us it’s a lot closer to a coin flip. Worse, a lot more people in your pool are likely to predict that same “upset.”
We want the momentum-shifters, where the winning team is at least five seeds worse than their opponent. Those are the precious calls that win or lose pools, and there are only a handful of correct ones to be had every year.
According to the NCAA, since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, the average number of those upsets (the winning team being at least five seeds worse) is about eight per year. There have never been more than 14, and there have never been fewer than three. The frequency of those upsets is trending up. Over the past 25 tournaments, only one featured fewer than seven, and there have been at least 10 in nine of the past 13 tournaments (last year had nine). There were 13-plus twice in the last four years (13 in 2022 and 14 in 2021).
Using this info, calibrate the number of big swings in your bracket to your level of risk tolerance. If you like to play things conservatively, shoot for six on the low end and 10 on the high end. If you’re a risk taker, set your floor at eight and go as high as 12 or 13. If you have 14 or more in your bracket, you’ve got too many. That would mean we’d be at the outer edge of statistical probability at best or, at worst, betting on something that’s never happened before. If you have five or fewer, that’s not enough. Less than five has only happened one time in 39 years.
Frontload your upset picks
Keeping in mind we are targeting the big upsets, history says more than half of them happen in the first round. That should be obvious, given the number of games, but it’s worth remembering as you fill out your bracket. Whatever your total number of upset calls is, at least half of them should be made by the time you move to Round 2. Your best bet is a No. 11 seed toppling a No. 6, which occurs roughly 40 percent of the time. A 12-seed pulls out a win at pretty close to the same rate (around 35 percent of the time), and then the odds fall off a cliff. No. 13 seeds get an upset over a No. 4 seed in only around 20 percent of matchups, and 14 seeds are successful less than 15 percent of the time. It’s generally sound advice to stay away from picking a 15- or 16-seed unless you know something the rest of the world doesn’t.
Unload the rest of your upset picks in the second round, maybe saving one for a Cinderella in the Sweet 16 if you like. Speaking of the second round …
Round 2 is for headhunting
The second round is, statistically, where you can take a big swing at a favorite, especially a 2-seed. A No. 2 seed has lost in the second round 46 times in the 64-team era, which means we’re averaging just over one upset per year in which a 7- or 10-seed topples a 2.
The next best bet is an 11 taking down a 3, or an 8 or 9 taking down a 1. Both of those happen once every other year on average, and neither happened last tournament. (No. 11 NC State won in the second round, but No. 3 Kentucky lost in the first round.)
In the 15 years prior, however, No. 3 seeds only had a 14-12 record against No. 11 seeds and actually had a losing record (3-5) against them over the five most recent tournaments until Illinois and Creighton pulled things even in 2024.
When it comes to calling a second-round upset of a No. 1 seed, pick a matchup where they are playing an 8, not a 9. No. 8 seeds have beaten the top team 15 times compared to just six upsets for 9-seeds. Over the last six tournaments, 9-seeds are 1-12 when facing a 1, while 8-seeds are 3-6.
So you know how many upsets to call and when to call them, but how do you pick which matchups to target?
Trust the Big Ten in the first round, beware the SEC
The two conferences are expected to have more than 20 bids between them, and though the SEC has been the talk of the sport this season, history says the Big Ten will have more teams in the second round.
Conference stats get tricky thanks to another round of realignment, but there are still some helpful historical trends. Big Ten teams (not counting the new Pac-12 refugees) are great bets in the Round of 64. Since 2008, the conference is 76-28 and 26-3 when seeded 1-3. Even teams seeded 9 or above have a winning record, going 17-10 over that stretch. When first-round favorites, Big Ten teams (again, pre-expansion) have won more than 75 percent of the time in the last 15 years, and underdogs still managed to win at a nearly 60 percent clip — by far the best success rate of any major conference.
Compare that to the SEC, which is 51-31 in the first round over that same period and is extremely top-heavy when it comes to success.
SEC teams seeded 1 to 3 went 19-2 in the first round, while teams seeded fourth or worse went 33-29 (53 percent win rate). When seeded ninth or higher, SEC teams lost their first game roughly 70 percent of the time since 2008.
Use KenPom and the spread in the first round
This is not an endorsement of KenPom, nor is it an examination of how useful a tool it is to rank schedule strength. We don’t care about that. We care about KenPom having been around long enough that it provides a reliable historical data point to help us pick our upsets.
For example, since 2008, when the higher-seeded team does not have the higher KenPom ranking in their first-round matchup, they are upset more than half the time. If their first-round opponent has a higher KenPom ranking and is from a power conference, that number jumps to more than 60 percent. However, if such an opponent is from a non-power conference, the upset rate drops below 30 percent if the higher seed is a power conference team.
Spreads are similarly reliable as a starting point for first-round games. When higher-seeded teams are the spread underdog, they’re upset in slightly more than half of their games. When the higher seed is favored by 0.5-3 points, the upset rate is almost identical. Once the spread jumps to 3.5-6 points, however, higher-seeded teams are only upset around 35 percent of the time. Things become more sure from that point on, with teams favored by 6.5-12 winning 75 percent of the time and those favored by 12.5 or more posting a win rate above 90 percent.
Observe the 3-minute rule
This last one is less about using data for your picks and more about preserving your sanity while watching the games. College hoops is fairly crazy by nature and doubly so during tournament time. Anything can happen in a single game, and almost everything does happen for a portion of them. When a surprise underdog is threatening to bust your bracket, or a team you picked to pull an upset is rolling early, for your quality of life, always remember: It’s not real until there are three minutes left in the game.
Great teams come out flat all the time. Shooters go cold, presses and 2-3 zones fluster offenses, and adrenaline can shift just about any stat to a team’s favor for a time. It’s not unusual for underdogs to have big leads early or coming out of halftime. They can still lead comfortably with 10 or even five minutes to go. But shooters warm back up, talent and training overtake adrenaline, and the legs fueling presses and zones get tired.
The three-minute mark isn’t scientific, but it’s a reliable demarcation line between flashes in the pan and legitimate upset campaigns. By that point, the favorite will have launched their comeback attack, and it will be clear if the underdog is running out of gas and/or luck, or staying with them step for step. Under three minutes is where foul counts and free throw percentages become critical, coaching moves the needle and raw talent can expose defensive overperformance. If the favorite has come back from 15 down and now leads by five, or even if they trail by a couple of points, you can see the writing on the wall. Similarly, if the underdog still holds a double-digit lead, they aren’t going to buckle. If it’s been neck and neck and remains so, the final three minutes should be a blast.
So feel your feelings when an upset is on the table. Swear, stomp, cheer and gloat. Just wait until the three-minute mark to do it (at least). Otherwise, you’ll be exhausted by Round 2.
(Photo: John Fisher / Getty Images)
