The 2025 NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament is here. The 68-team bracket was officially released on Sunday evening, and over the next 72+ hours, anywhere from 60–100 million brackets will be filled out ahead of the First Round tipping off on Thursday afternoon.
But who should you pick to win it all? Well, it’s complicated. While March Madness is known for its last-second buzzer-beaters, upsets, and unlikely Cinderella runs, more often than not the tournament champion still ends up being a powerhouse.
In fact, since 1999, 18 of the tournament’s 25 champions have been a No. 1 seed—one of the top-four teams in the country. On top of this, since 2002, all but two Madness champs have been a top 20 team in both adjusted offensive rating and adjusted defensive rating according to KenPom.
What’s KenPom? I’m glad you asked. Let’s dive in.
College basketball’s KenPom rankings were created in 2002 by Ken Pomeroy, a former meteorologist turned instructor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Utah.
Pomeroy uses his own website (KenPom.com) to publish statistics that measure adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, tempo, luck and strength of schedule—which are ultimately calculated into KenPom ratings.
Originally created as a personal venture, Pomeroy’s stats have turned into a college hoops phenomenon. The rankings and numbers are not only widely recognized by sports media and news outlets, but are also used by teams across the country who hope to gain a competitive advantage.
Below is a look at the nation’s top 20 according to KenPom, as well as the top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive rating—which can generally be used to help narrow down a champion.
KenPom’s rankings are based on net rating, or “adjusted efficiency margin,” which measures how many points a team would outscore an average opponent.
Here’s the Top 20 heading into the 2024 NCAA tournament:
Rank
Team
Net Rating
1.
Duke Blue Devils (31–3)
+38.15
2.
Florida Gators (30–4)
+36.16
3.
Houston Cougars (30–4)
+35.44
4.
Auburn Tigers (28–5)
+35.05
5.
Tennessee Volunteers (27–7)
+31.15
6.
Alabama Crimson Tide (25–8)
+29.93
7.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (25–8)
+28.05
8.
Michigan State Spartans (27–6)
+27.57
9.
Gonzaga Bulldogs (25–8)
+27.29
10.
Iowa State Cyclones (24–9)
+26.99
11.
St. John’s Red Storm (30–4)
+26.38
12.
Maryland Terrapins (25–8)
+26.35
13.
Wisconsin Badgers (26–9)
+25.98
14.
Arizona Wildcats (22–12)
+25.73
15.
Missouri Tigers (22–11)
+24.42
16.
Kentucky Wildcats (22–11)
+24.26
17.
Texas A&M Aggies (22–10)
+24.08
18.
Clemson Tigers (22–7)
+23.93
19.
Purdue Boilermakers (22–11)
+23.84
20.
Illinois Fighting Illini (21–12)
+23.56
Moving onto offensive rating, this statistic measures how many points a team scores per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent.
Here is KenPom’s Top 20 in offensive rating:
Rank
Team
Rating
1.
Florida Gators (30–4)
128.6
2.
Auburn Tigers (28–5)
128.4
3.
Duke Blue Devils (31–3)
128.0
4.
Alabama Crimson Tide (25–8)
126.5
5.
Missouri Tigers (22–11)
125.3
6.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (25–8)
125.3
7.
Purdue Boilermakers (22–11)
124.2
8.
Kentucky Wildcats (22–11)
123.8
9.
Gonzaga Bulldogs (25–8)
123.6
10.
Houston Cougars (30–4)
123.2
11.
BYU Cougars (24–9)
123.0
12.
Arizona Wildcats (22–12)
122.5
13.
Wisconsin Badgers (26–9)
122.0
14.
Connecticut Huskies (23–10)
121.9
15.
Illinois Fighting Illini (21–12)
121.6
16.
Baylor Bears (19–14)
120.8
17.
Utah State Aggies (26–7)
120.7
18.
Tennessee Volunteers (27–7)
120.3
19.
Iowa Hawkeyes (17–16)
119.6
20.
Iowa State Cyclones (24–9)
119.4
And finally, we have defensive rating—which calculates how many points a team allows per 100 possessions—again adjusted for opponent.
Here’s KenPom’s Top 20:
Rank
Team
Rating
1.
St. John’s Red Storm (30–4)
87.5
2.
Houston Cougars (30–4)
87.8
3.
Tennessee Volunteers (27–7)
89.1
4.
Duke Blue Devils (31–3)
89.8
5.
Michigan State Spartans (27–6)
90.6
6.
Maryland Terrapins (25–8)
91.8
7.
Texas A&M Aggies (22–10)
92.1
8.
Saint Mary’s Gaels (28–5)
92.2
9.
Iowa State Cyclones (24–9)
92.4
10.
Florida Gators (30–4)
92.4
11.
Kansas Jayhawks (21–12)
92.7
12.
Auburn Tigers (28–5)
93.4
13.
San Diego State Aztecs (21–9)
93.5
14.
Michigan Wolverines (25–9)
93.7
15.
West Virginia Mountaineers (19–13)
93.9
16.
Clemson Tigers (27–6)
94.7
17.
UCLA Bruins (22–10)
95.1
18.
UC Irvine Anteaters (28–6)
95.1
19.
New Mexico Lobos (26–7)
95.2
20.
Arkansas Razorbacks (20–13)
95.2
As noted above, all but two March Madness champions have been a Top 20 KenPom team in both adjusted offensive rating and adjusted defensive rating. The only two anomalies are UConn in 2014 and Baylor in 2021.
Based on these numbers, odds are that one of the following six teams wins the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament:
Choose wisely.
