Ordinary people in Karachi, Pakistan’s largest and most populous city, reacted to news about attackers opening fire and killing more than 26 tourists in Pahalgam, India-administered Kashmir, with a great deal of concern. 

Islamist groups have carried out deadly assaults in the disputed area many times in the past, often causing tense faceoffs and even clashes between the militaries of India and Pakistan.

This time around, New Delhi seems even more determined to teach a lesson to Islamabad, whom it accuses of supporting separatists in Kashmir.

However, despite the current tensions between the two nuclear powers, few people in Pakistan expect a full-blown war with India.

“I think an all-out war between India and Pakistan is not possible,” Imtiaz Gul, executive director of the Islamabad-based Center for Research and Security Studies, told DW. “The nuclear capability of both countries serves as a big deterrent to a full-fledged confrontation.”

While this has proven to be true in the past, the confrontation is currently escalating. 

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New Delhi has taken a series of strong measures against Pakistan since the Pahalgam attack, including severing almost all diplomatic ties, closing land and air borders, and suspending the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which governs the sharing of water from the Indus River system.

In response, Islamabad has downgraded diplomatic ties with New Delhi and suspended bilateral trade.

What could happen next?

The military option

In 2019, a suicide bombing in Pulwama, also in India-administered Kashmir, killed 40 Indian paramilitary troops. India retaliated with airstrikes on Pakistan, pushing the two nations to the brink of war, but the crisis ended in a stalemate.

Could India carry out such strikes again?

“Indian Prime Minister [Narendra] Modi and his government are under immense pressure to retaliate with a military strike,” Praveen Dhonthi, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, a global nongovernmental conflict prevention organization based in Belgium, told DW.

“The routine hostile rhetoric from the government and the ruling [Bharatiya Janata Party] toward Pakistan has shaped public expectations,” he added.

“This government focuses heavily on optics and will likely feel compelled to conduct a military operation that must look more significant than the airstrikes in 2019 to appease its supporters.”

Dhonthi argued that diplomatic moves “do not have the same placating effect on the public psyche as military options.” He warned that “the likelihood of a military operation is high.”

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But Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United States, believed such an action by Modi “would be met by a strong military response from Islamabad.”

“It will have uncertain and unpredictable consequences, and it will trigger a full-blown crisis. The notion of limited war waged under the nuclear threshold being speculated in India is fraught with untold risks. Such a scenario should be avoided at all costs because of the danger of an uncontrollable escalatory spiral,” she underlined.

Syed Ata Hasnain, a former Indian general, said India’s response “does not need to be time-bound” and “should be executed when the success is guaranteed,” urging the Indian public to have faith in the political and military leadership of the country.

How vulnerable is Pakistan to India’s pressure?

Diplomatic ties between India and Pakistan will remain frozen and a war-like situation will likely persist for the foreseeable future, said Gul, adding that New Delhi would continue to put pressure on Pakistan by using its international influence.

“India will try to isolate Pakistan. The unilateral exit from the Indus Waters Treaty is a big threat to the country,” he said, adding that the suspension of trade and visas, along with isolating Islamabad internationally, “are the most cogent tools India has at its disposal.”

Gul noted that the measures serve Indian interests more, “because the options for Pakistan remain limited; it is a country that is already hungry for international foreign investment.”

Pakistan is grappling with an acute economic crisis, with soaring inflation heavily impacting ordinary citizens. The country faces massive security challenges from extremist groups operating in its western Balochistan and northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces.

On the political front, one of the country’s most popular politicians, former Prime Minister Imran Khan remains in jail, with his supporters at loggerheads with the military establishment. A protracted conflict with India over Kashmir has the potential to further destabilize the country.

The geopolitical factor

The United Nations has urged India and Pakistan to show “maximum restraint” so that issues can be “resolved peacefully through meaningful mutual engagement.” 

Similarly, China’s Foreign Ministry has asked the regional rivals to “exercise restraint, meet each other halfway” and “properly handle relevant differences through dialogue.”

Iran has already offered to mediate, and Saudi Arabia has said it was trying to “prevent an escalation.”

Although US President Donald Trump initially condemned the Pahalgam attack, he refrained from taking sides in his latest comment on the issue.

“There have been tensions on that [Kashmir] border for 1,500 years. It’s been the same, but I am sure they’ll figure it out one way or the other. I know both leaders [of India and Pakistan],” Trump told reporters on Friday.

According to an article in Newsweek magazine, “the United States must navigate a complex diplomatic landscape,” after the Kashmir attack. “Washington’s support for India, its growing partnership with the country, and its efforts to manage its relationship with Pakistan amid its increasing ties to China are critical in ensuring regional stability and avoiding a larger conflict.”

“Washington will likely push for diplomatic solutions, aiming to deescalate the crisis and prevent further violence. The situation’s outcome will not only impact South Asia but could also reshape global security, particularly with China’s growing influence in the region.”

Additional reporting by Haroon Janjua and Murali Krishnan, DW reporters in Islamabad and New Delhi, respectively.

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Edited by: Keith Walker