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One region in the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket stands out above the rest for its brutality. The West is going to be a slugfest, as No. 1 seed Florida, No. 2 seed St. John’s, No. 3 seed Texas Tech and No. 4 seed Maryland headline the group of teams duking it out for a spot in the Final Four.
But that’s really just the beginning when it comes to explaining the West’s potential for peril. No. 5 seed Memphis owns a sterling 6-1 Quad 1 record, and No. 6 seed Missouri owns the nation’s No. 5 most-efficient offense, according to KenPom. No. 7 seed Kansas is led by two-time national championship winning coach Bill Self, and No. 8 seed UConn is the two-time reigning national champion.
Still not sold? No. 9 seed Oklahoma went 13-0 with wins over Arizona, Louisville and Michigan during nonconference play and has a potential lottery pick in star freshman guard Jeremiah Fears. No. 10 seed Arkansas has a Hall of Fame coach in John Calipari, and No. 11 seed Drake is led by four-time Division II title-winning coach Ben McCollum.
No. 12 seed Colorado State and No. 13 seed Grand Canyon are also among the most potent double-digit seeds in the entire field. OK, you get the picture. When it comes to a discussion over which top seeds have the hardest paths in the 2025 NCAA Tournament, the conversation must start with the West.
Here’s the breakdown of who among the NCAA Tournament’s top title contenders has the easiest and toughest paths.
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Easiest paths
(1) Duke
Duke’s potential second-round opponents are from the least-intimidating 8/9 pairing in the bracket. No. 8 seed Mississippi State is reeling defensively entering the Big Dance, and No. 9 seed Baylor lacks the pop required to hang with the Blue Devils. A Sweet 16 matchup vs. No. 4 seed Arizona or No. 5 seed Oregon would mark a significant uptick in competition from the ACC. But assuming Cooper Flagg is close to 100% by the tournament’s second weekend, the Blue Devils could handle either. Duke beat Arizona by 14 on the road in November, and Oregon’s lack of size on the perimeter would be a problem for the Ducks. If Alabama awaits in the Elite Eight, small guards and suspect defense would be hurdles for the Crimson Tide to overcome.
(2) Michigan State
If Michigan State gets past high-octane No. 15 seed Bryant in the first round, it matches up favorably with either of its potential second-round opponents. The Spartans can bully No. 7 seed Marquette on the boards or wear down No. 10 seed New Mexico with a rotation that regularly goes 10 deep. A potential matchup with No. 3 seed Iowa State is less daunting now that ISU has shut down star guard Keshon Gilbert for the season. While taking down No. 1 overall seed Auburn would be tough in the Elite Eight, the Tigers aren’t playing their best basketball entering the NCAA Tournament. This is a manageable path for March maestro Tom Izzo.
(2) Tennessee
A potential second-round matchup with No. 7 seed UCLA would be a low-scoring, slow-paced affair. Good luck trying to beat Tennessee in that fashion. Either of the most likely Sweet 16 foes would be good matchups for the Volunteers. Though they’re 0-2 against Kentucky this season, the No. 3 seed Wildcats are too banged up to be regarded as a serious Final Four threat. No. 6 seed Illinois would be another option, and the Vols already own a true road win over the Illini. Houston vs. Tennessee would be a physically bruising Elite Eight matchup, but the Vols can play that way and are good enough defensively to frustrate a Cougars team that shoots the 3-pointer well.
Hardest paths
(1) Florida
- First round: vs. (16) Norfolk State
- Second-round possible opponents: (8) UConn vs. (9) Oklahoma winner
- Sweet 16 possible opponents: (4) Maryland | (5) Memphis | (12) Colorado State | (13) Grand Canyon
A potential second-round game with two-time reigning national champion UConn is a brutal matchup for Florida simply because it’s March and the Huskies expect to win. There won’t be an iota of backdown from UConn under the bright lights. No. 4 seed Maryland can match the Gators stride for stride in transition during a potential Sweet 16 matchup. Or, if the opponent is No. 5 seed Memphis, then you’re talking about an opponent with wins over Missouri, UConn, Michigan State, Clemson and Ole Miss. The Tigers won’t flinch as underdogs.
Then it would likely be No. 2 seed St. John’s or No. 3 seed Texas Tech in the Elite Eight. The Red Raiders have already shown the ability to hang with the sport’s upper-crust in a road win over Houston. And if it’s the Red Storm? Third-year Florida coach Todd Golden has never been past the first round of the NCAA Tournament as a head coach and would have his hands full against the legendary Rick Pitino. The Gators are 100% capable of handling this region, but there’s no sugar-coating the reality that it will be challenging.
(1) Auburn
Auburn couldn’t have been thrilled to see No. 8 seed Louisville pop up just below it in the South region bracket at the beginning of Sunday’s selection show. First-year coach Pat Kelsey has breathed life into the Cardinals and may have an edge in the guard matchup with Chucky Hepburn and Terrence Edwards. Potential Sweet 16 foe Michigan has a couple of 7-footers who can go toe-to-toe with Tigers star center Johni Broome. Or, if it’s No. 5 seed Texas A&M, Auburn would be trying to avenge an 11-point regular season loss. An Elite Eight showdown between Auburn coach Bruce Pearl and Michigan State coach Tom Izzo would be elite theater, but taking down Izzo this time of year is a big task.
(2) St. John’s
- First round: vs. (15) Omaha
- Second-round possible opponents: (7) Kansas vs. (10) Arkansas
- Sweet 16 possible opponents: (3) Texas Tech | (6) Missouri | (11) Drake | (14) UNCW
The West region is just stacked. Get past No. 15 seed Omaha in the first round and St. John’s will immediately face a national-title winning coach in the second round with either No. 7 seed Kansas and Bill Self or No. 10 seed Arkansas and John Calipari. The No. 3 seed is Texas Tech, which is the best No. 3 seed in the entire field. Then, it could all come down to a matchup with No. 1 seed Florida in the Elite Eight, and the Gators are playing better than anyone in college basketball entering the tournament. Second-year coach Rick Pitino has done a masterful job getting the Red Storm back into the sport’s upper-echelon, but he’s got his work cut out for him if the magical ride is going to continue.
