Getty Images
Depending on how adventurous of a life you live, picking an upset in your March Madness bracket is one of the more exciting aspects of day-to-day life and certainly some of the most fun you can have sitting at your desk. The reward of nailing that pick is significant– not just because it’s points for you, but because it’s points that most other people didn’t get.
Then there’s the other side of the coin: If you miss on this pick, you’re not only missing out on the points most other people get, but you’re missing out on lots more points deeper into the tournament. For example, (11) New Mexico over (6) Clemson was among the most popular upset picks last year. Then the Tigers not only blew out the Lobos but beat Baylor and Arizona to make the Elite Eight.
Still, as harrowing (and thrilling) of an experience as it is, you have to pick upsets. Have to. It’d be easy to sit back, pick a chalky bracket and not have to worry if your upset picks were the right ones. You’d probably produce a pretty good bracket, too. After all, a 1 seed has won six of the last seven tournaments.
But we’re not here to have a “pretty good bracket.” No one’s ever gloated about a 10th-place finish in their bracket pool. We’re here to win. Of course, if you pick too many upsets and too many Cinderellas, it’ll be an adrenaline rush that ends shortly after the games actually start.
“Take calculated risks,” George Patton wrote in a letter to his son in 1944. “That is quite different from being rash.”
He probably wasn’t talking about NCAA Tournament picks — there were only eight tournament teams back then — but it applies all the same. First, we must calculate how often these upsets do, in fact, happen. Since 1985, here’s what it looks like:
SEED VS. SEEDWIN-LOSSWIN PCT.No. 9 vs. No. 881-750.519No. 10 vs. No. 760-950.387No. 11 vs. No. 661-950.391No. 12 vs. No. 555-1010.353No. 13 vs. No. 433-1230.212No. 14 vs. No. 323-1330.147No. 15 vs. No. 211-1450.071No. 16 vs. No. 12-1540.013
The 11-6 upset was the star of this group last year with three, and it’s now even more common than the 10-7 upset. We also got multiple 12-5 upsets for the third time in the last five tournaments. And though the percentages drop off precipitously after that, there’s been at least one upset by a 13 seed or lower each of the last six tournaments, with (13) Yale and (14) Oakland doing the honors last year.
Long story short, these wins happen. Which ones will make it happen this year? That’s where you make your money. Here are the top candidates.
(9) Baylor Bears
First-round opponent: (8) Mississippi State Bulldogs
To win in March, you need guards. Baylor has plenty of them in Robert Wright, Jeremy Roach, Jayden Nunn and a returning Langston Love. They also own a significant advantage beyond the 3-point line, shooting 35% from deep while Mississippi State shoots just 31%.
Both of these teams attack the boards with zeal, but no one in this game — and few in the country — do it better than Norchad Omier, who ranks 26th nationally in offensive rebound rate and 32nd in defensive rebound rate. He must stay out of foul trouble given the Bears’ dearth of inside depth, but if he does, expect him to rack up some big numbers. Since the calendar flipped to March, he’s averaging 16.6 points and 14 rebounds.
Mississippi State has an explosive scoring guard of its own in Josh Hubbard and a major size advantage everywhere else. The Bulldogs certainly shouldn’t be underestimated, but they closed the season losing five of their last seven, with the only wins coming over LSU. Chris Jans is yet to win an NCAA Tournament game in Starkville, and that streak will continue.
You’ll notice No. 9 seeds actually have a winning record over eight seeds. For a second 9-over-8, consider Creighton over Louisville.
(10) Arkansas Razorbacks
First-round opponent: (7) Kansas Jayhawks
I’ll be honest: I don’t love this year’s crop of 10 seeds, and perhaps the recent trends support that. There’s been just one 10-7 upset each of the last three seasons.
We’ll give the nod to John Calipari’s Razorbacks here, who looked dreadful en route to an 0-5 SEC start before winning eight of their final 13 conference contests. Seven of those eight wins were against tournament teams, and the Razorbacks rank 20th nationally in defensive efficiency since that turnaround started Jan. 22.
Arkansas is one of the nation’s best shot-blocking teams and can use Zvonimir Ivišić, Jonas Aidoo and Trevon Brazille against Hunter Dickinson. There’s no great defense for Dickinson, but all three present a different challenge: Ivišić’s length, Aidoo’s strength and Brazille’s athleticism.
More than anything, this is a bet against a Kansas team that just has not looked very inspiring. The Jayhawks haven’t beaten a tournament team away from home since before Thanksgiving. Since then, they’ve lost to non-tournament teams West Virginia, Kansas State and Utah on the road and lost at BYU by 34. With a chance to put their regular season behind them at the Big 12 Tournament, the Jayhawks needed overtime to beat UCF before bowing out quietly against Arizona.
The preseason No. 1 team — stacked with talent both acquired and retained — just hasn’t fit together well. Kansas doesn’t shoot it well or get to the free-throw line. Too often, the offense has been stagnant. Arkansas has the depth and skill to stick around and win.
(11) Drake Bulldogs
First-round opponent: (6) Missouri Tigers
Since March 1, Missouri is 1-4 and ranks 228th in defensive efficiency. Enter a Drake team led by Missouri Valley Conference player of the year and tournament MVP Bennett Stirtz. The former D-II Northwest Missouri State transfer can light it up from 3-point range or pick apart a defense in the pick-and-roll game. The latter, which coach Ben McCollum spams over and over, is an area Missouri has really struggled to defend, my colleague Isaac Trotter notes.
But that’s not the only reason to back the Bulldogs. Drake hits the boards hard — No. 17 in offensive rebound rate — while Missouri ranks 300th in defensive rebound rate. Drake also gets to the free throw line a ton, and Missouri’s defense is below-average in that aspect, too. The two are connected, and if Tavion Banks and Cam Manyawu get going on the offensive glass and Stirtz continues his high level of play, Missouri is in trouble.
Pace will be key. Drake has the slowest adjusted pace in the nation. Missouri isn’t super fast but is inside the top third nationally. The Tigers will have to be careful to not get dragged into the mud, but also can’t hurry too much: Drake leads the nation in steal rate.
Most importantly, Drake won’t be scared. They just won win-or-go-home games in the MVC Tournament — two by 15-plus. The Bulldogs have wins over major-conference foes Miami, Vanderbilt and Kansas State. They have a great chance to add another.
If you want another 11-6 upset — they have become more popular than the 10-7, after all — consider VCU over BYU.
(12) Colorado State Rams
First-round opponent: (5) Memphis Tigers
Let’s get one thing out of the way: Dain Dainja is going to have a big performance. The Rams don’t have the frontcourt size to contend, and Dainja is on a heater, averaging 20.6 points and 10 rebounds during the Tigers’ current eight-game winning streak.
But elsewhere, the Rams can absolutely stack up, especially given Memphis’ considerable injury concerns. Guards Tyrese Hunter and Dante Harris are both dealing with injuries. That puts a lot of pressure on PJ Haggerty‘s shoulders, and while Haggerty is terrific and can handle it, Colorado State has a guy who can go toe-to-toe with him.
Nique Clifford may be the best player you don’t know. He’s averaging 25.3 points in March, including a 36-point explosion in the regular-season finale against Boise State. He’s sixth in KenPom’s Player of the Year ratings. He’s a defensive menace with length, and he may well draw the Haggerty assignment.
Both of these teams are hot. Colorado State has won 10 straight, Memphis eight. But over their winning streak, which dates back to Feb. 15, the Rams have been the eighth-best team in the country according to Bart Torvik. Memphis over the same span? 79th. Even stretching it out to season-long spans, Bart Torvik favors the Rams by 3.4 points.
(13) Yale Bulldogs
First-round opponent: (4) Texas A&M Aggies
When we get this deep in the field, we’re looking for a team that has an elite trait, and there are actually two teams on the 13-seed line that shoot it really well: Yale and High Point. We’ll give the slight nod to Yale, which has lost just once in 2025, beat Akron and hung with Purdue in non-conference action.
The Bulldogs own a major advantage from beyond the arc, where they shoot 38.5% (ninth in D-I) while the Aggies shoot 31.1% (317th). In each of the last first-round upsets where a 13 seed or worse beat a 4 seed or better, the winner made more 3s than its opponent. That, of course, includes Yale last year, which beat Auburn.
Plus, while Texas A&M is elite defensively, it’s middle-of-the-pack in terms of 3-point defense, and opponents take a ton of them.
The Aggies’ awful perimeter shooting lends itself to a ton of offensive rebounding opportunities, and this is where they make their money. They are the best offensive rebounding team in the nation, gobbling up 42% of their misses, and they also lead the country in second-chance points. Yale has more than held its own on the defensive glass this year and did a good job against Purdue, its top competition, but Texas A&M is a whole different animal. Plus, the Bulldogs aren’t the deepest team on Earth, and Texas A&M draws a ton of fouls.
Still, if the 3-point math tilts in Yale’s favor enough, the recipe for an upset is there.
(14) Lipscomb Bisons
First-round opponent: (3) Iowa State Cyclones
Again, we’re looking for teams with a really good trait or two, and Lipscomb shoots it well from 3, from 2 and the free throw line and rarely turns the ball over. Jacob Ognacevic stands 6-foot-8 and shoots 41% from 3, is a combination that causes major problems for opponents. The Bisons boast a veteran backcourt as well. Defensively, they avoid fouling and have defended the 3 well.
Iowa State, meanwhile, has endured a bumpy last few weeks. The Cyclones are just 7-7 over their last 14 and 3-4 in their last seven. Their last win over a tournament team away from Hilton Coliseum was in early January. Keshon Gilbert won’t be available either, as he deals with an injury.
(15) Bryant Bulldogs
First-round opponent: (2) Michigan State Spartans
Bryant plays super fast and blocks a ton of shots; KenPom’s average height metric (which weighs playing time) has the Bulldogs as the sixth-tallest team in the nation. Phil Martelli Jr.’s team also has a ton of former high-major talent, including America East Player of the Year and tournament MVP Earl Timberlake (Miami), Rafael Pinzon (St. John’s) and Jakai Robinson (Miami).
Bryant hung with St. John’s for a half earlier this season and stormed through the conference tournament, winning all three games by double digits. There are worse bets to make in a 15-2 game.
(16) SIUE Cougars
First-round opponent: (1) Houston Cougars
Will UMBC and Fairleigh Dickinson get some company this year? Probably not. SIUE, led by Ohio Valley player of the year Ray’Sean Taylor, does at least a decent job on the defensive boards and defends the 2 at a solid rate. Houston had a slow start as a No. 1 seed two years ago against Northern Kentucky. That’s about all I’ve got. Never say never!
