Keytron Jordan, CBS Sports
CHARLOTTE — With the PGA Championship returning to Quail Hollow for the first time in eight years, the key question everyone’s asking is the same across the golf world: Who are you picking to win this 107th playing of one of the nation’s most notable tournaments? With an extraordinary field featuring 99 of the top 100 professional golfers in the work — along with a bevy of PGA of America professionals — the second major championship of 2025 should be an epic ride from Thursday’s first round through the awarding of the Wanamaker Trophy early Sunday evening.
While the PGA Championship field is stacked, there is a three-headed monster at the top with Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau entering as the three clear favorites. The former two top the PGA Championship odds board, though, with McIlroy already winning three tiems on the season with his last clinching the career grand slam as he finally donned a green jacket at the Masters one month ago. Scheffler broke through his winless drought a couple weeks ago at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, and DeChambeau has been crushing it on LIV Golf. They are all listed among the nine golfers most likely to prevail this week in Charlotte.
Two-time PGA champion Justin Thomas slides in right behind the triumverate, particularly given he won this tournament the last time it was played at Quail Hollow in 2017. There are plenty of golfers behind J.T. who will surely be in contention, including Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm and potentially even Jordan Spieth, who needs a Wanamaker Trophy to complete his own career grand slam. It has been a long trek back to relevancy for Spieth, who is in the midst of his best season in years though still without a recent win.
So, what is going to happen at Quail Hollow this week? There are storylines aplenty to follow, and the trends certainly point us in a particular direction. Let’s take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts as we attempt to project who will win — and what will go down — at the second major championship of the season. Check out the PGA Championship TV schedule and coverage guide so you know how to watch all week long.
2025 PGA Championship expert picks, predictions
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Patrick McDonald, golf writer
Winner — Xander Schauffele (22-1): His name continues to drop in the market due to the rise of DeChambeau, and I will happily shop the discount. Schauffele found something with his driver over the weekend in Philadelphia and has feasted at Quail Hollow the past two years with back-to-back runner-up results. He arrives in Charlotte amid a run of form in majors that includes 12 straight top 20s, five straight top 10s, and oh yeah, a couple of wins including this championship last season.
Sleeper — Patrick Reed (90-1): One of the runner-up finishers when the PGA Champoinship was held at Quail Hollow in 2017, Reed returns perhaps as complete a player as ever. The Masters champion has rattled off four top 10s in his last five worldwide starts, including a contention run in the first major championship of the season. While he is known for his short game, Reed has made significant strides in the ball-striking department in 2025.
Top 10 lock — Rory McIlroy: The free square on the bingo card usually belongs to Scheffler, but at Quail Hollow, McIlroy’s name is put into play. A winner four times at this golf course, he arrives in fantastic form and without the mental weight of trying to break a decade-long drought on the major stage. His carry distance off the tee is so advantageous around these parts and even more so with the early-week rains.
Star who definitely won’t win — Justin Thomas: Let’s be bold. Some have him slotted in that fourth spot behind the big three, but I still have my doubts about the two-time major champion. Thomas is experiencing the worst driving season of his career, and if out of position at Quail Hollow, scoring will be tough to come by. In his last 11 major championships, Thomas has five missed cuts and five finishes outside the top 30.
Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy vs. Bryson DeChambeau: Close your eyes and throw a dart. That’s how close these three players are at this golf course. I’m going to stick with the world No. 1, however, as the man to beat and followed closely by McIlroy and then DeChambeau. There is no question the two-time U.S. Open winner can boat race this field if he hits his scoring clubs like he did in Korea, but I do wonder about them and specifically the left miss that hindered his Masters chances.
Justin Thomas vs. Jon Rahm vs. Jordan Spieth: I don’t mind a bet on Rahm this week for what it is worth, and I think he ultimately prevails among these three players. The Spaniard has the driver on a string and has quietly put together back-to-back top 15s in majors. I’ve said my piece on Thomas, so to just dive into the take head first, Spieth will clip him too and finish somewhere in the top 20 while Thomas ends up last of this trio.
Surprise prediction — One of the big three battles the cutline. Lots of chatter about the big three, and rightfully so, but let’s play heel. Will Rory still have that edge one month after accomplishing a lifelong dream? How will Scheffler fare at Quail Hollow in his first competitive stroll around the property? Is DeChambeau’s iron play trending upwards or was his performance in Korea the outlier? The case could be made that these three are all as likely to win as they are to miss the cut (i.e. in that 7-1 odds range).
Lowest round: 65 (-6)
Winning score: 274 (-10)
Winner’s Sunday score: 68 (-3)
Robby Kalland, golf writer
Winner — Justin Thomas (22-1): The last time they played the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, Thomas hoisted the Wanamaker Trophy. I think history repeats itself this week, not simply because he has a solid track record at this course but because he’s playing the most consistently great golf of just about anyone in the world right now.
Sleeper — Max Homa (160-1): I expect a stacked leaderboard this week, which makes it tough for sleepers to really breakthrough, but let’s go real deep on the board with this one and take a guy who has a win and two T8 finishes in his last four starts at Quail Hollow. Homa has been in the wilderness for more than a year, but he’s shown some signs of seeing a light at the end of the tunnel recently. It wouldn’t surprise me if the positive vibes return at a place where he has almost nothing but good memories.
Top 10 lock — Rory McIlroy: I’m not going to get too crazy with this one. The guy has won four times at Quail Hollow, continues to play the best golf of his life and no longer has the lingering doubts about whether he’ll ever win another major. On top of that, the rain that’s currently soaking Quail Hollow is only going to make it play longer and that plays even more into Rory’s hands.
Star who definitely won’t win — Ludvig Åberg: He still has the eighth-best odds to win this week, and I just can’t figure out why. I understand his game is phenomenal when at its best, but his form right now is dreadful. He did hold a share of the Masters lead on the 16th tee on Sunday but then completely collapsed from there. That was his best showing by far since his win at the Genesis in February. He’s only played twice since and respectively finished T54 and T60 at the RBC Heritage and Truist Championship, which are no-cut signature events. I’m not entirely sure what’s going on with Åberg, but I don’t see him having the game to compete this week.
Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy vs. Bryson DeChambeau: Rory, but all three will play a role on Sunday. The PGA Championship tends to create really good leaderboards, and that’s especially going to be the case with the way Quail Hollow is going to play after the rain. We know McIlroy is a great fit here, and DeChambeau has put together some good finishes here in the past, but Scheffler’s a bit of a wild card having only ever played here in the Presidents Cup. I’m giving Rory the edge because of his combination of form and course dominance, but I don’t expect any of these three to struggle.
Justin Thomas vs. Jon Rahm vs. Jordan Spieth: Thomas. He’s my pick to win the whole thing, so that makes it pretty easy for me here, but he’s also just playing the best golf of this trio right now. Rahm’s been good but not spectacular on LIV Golf, and he’s been painfully pedestrian in majors over the last year-plus as well. Spieth catching lightning in a bottle would be the best story we could get this week, but I’m not sure how anyone can have real faith in that happening with how high-variance his game is right now.
Surprise prediction — Seamus Power will finish among the top 20. Of players in the field with 3 or more appearances at Quail Hollow since 2017, Power is sixth in average finishing position (25.6) with three top 20s at the Wells Fargo and he’s never missed the cut there. There’s something about Quail that agrees with the Irishman, and choosing to make the cut (-140) and finish top 20 (+550) are among my favorite bets this week.
Lowest round: 64 (-7)
Winning score: 272 (-12)
Winner’s Sunday score: 68 (-3)
Adam Silverstein, senior director of editorial
Winner — Rory McIlroy (5-1): As detractors piled against McIlroy ever winning the Masters or completing the career grand slam, I had no problem choosing to him at Augusta National last month. And there is nothing dissuading me from making that call again. While no golfer has won these events consecutively in a decade, Rory is in the midst of a season that he has not put together in exactly that long. You will hear about the burden being lifted off McIlroy’s shoulders and how he has dominated Quail Hollow across his career. Both true. This prognostication is far more simple. He’s been the best golfer in the world this season, and his effort at the Truist Championship was the perfect tune up.
Sleeper — Jordan Spieth (50-1): Whether you want to consider him a sleeper at these odds is your prerogative, but a guy who has won two tournaments in eight years fits the billing of an underdog to your’s truly. So why Spieth this week? He has three top 10s already this season and three more top 20s. Plus, if McIlroy can get off the schneid, why not Spieth? Perhaps something was learned from watching Rory get the job done at Augusta National last month.
Top 10 lock — Scottie Scheffler: Almost went with Bryson DeChambeau in this space, but after thinking about it, between the two, who is more likely to eject on a Sunday? Hint: It’s not Scottie. Scheffler has won or finished inside the top 10 across 13 of his last 16 major championship starts. That’s 81.3%. That’s also ridiculous. That’s also as close to a lock as one can get on a golf course. DeChambeau is playing great golf — particularly at majors — but Scheffler gets the edge for this designation.
Star who definitely won’t win — Joaquín Niemann: He’s ninth on the odds board this week despite not having won anything notable in either his prior PGA Tour career or major championship excursions. Those on LIV Golf scream about his immense talent and beg attention to be put on his ascension, but on the game’s biggest stages, we simply are not seeing it. Niemann has missed more cuts (7) than he has top 20 finishes (1) across 23 major starts.
Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy vs. Bryson DeChambeau: Given McIlroy is my choice to win, and the course is setting up beautifully for him following three days of inclement weather, this is an easy call. Scheffler and DeChambeau follow in order, though Scottie’s lack of experience playing Quail Hollow is concerning given Bryson has at least put together multiple successful rounds as an individual on this course. Still, Scheffler’s level of play at this events gives him the edge.
Justin Thomas vs. Jon Rahm vs. Jordan Spieth: While I have a high level of belief in Spieth this week, Thomas is playing incredibly high-quality golf of late. He has two wins at the PGA Championship compared to none for the other two on this list. We’ll slot in Spieth second among this three-man group with Rahm bringing up the rear. While he’s played better on LIV Golf, he has yet to truly put it together stateside.
Surprise prediction — Brooks Koepka misses the cut. Falling below the line at the Masters last month, it’s clear Koepka’s game has taken a step back. Despite being one of the best players on LIV Golf, he is winless this season with only one top-five finish. This is a surprise prediction solely because Koepka is a three-time PGA champion who generally thrives when the calendar turns to May … just not this year.
Lowest round: 63 (-8)
Winning score: 270 (-14)
Winner’s Sunday score: 69 (-2)
Who will win the PGA Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard and best bets, all from the model that’s nailed 14 golf majors, including the past four Masters, and is up over $9,000 since June 2020.
