Reds vs. Phillies, 1:05 ET
Happy Fourth of July, ladies and gentlemen. The good news about sports is that it never really stops. There is always something to bet on. Even on days when we get “breaks”, of which there are very few without one of the big four playing each year, we can bet on soccer, or golf or whatever else. There are a ton of options for us, but today, take a moment and appreciate all of the good things in the country. Ignore the politics, ignore the fighting, and just appreciate that we have a great country. A country that allows me to watch, and bet on baseball, specifically this one between the Reds and Phillies.
The Reds are surprisingly good this season, and continue to push the envelope as much as possible to find a way to get to the playoffs. This is a young and scrappy team. They aren’t the best hitting team in the big leagues – I went into detail about this a few days ago – they are pretty average when it comes to most of their overall statistics. However, they do have more runs scored than their opponent for the season, but they have a batting average that is almost .10 lower than the Phillies. The Reds pitching staff has also been better than I expected. There isn’t a big name pitcher on the staff, but some of these young guys look like they will pan out. One of those younger guys here is Andrew Abbott. Abbott is having a very good season with a 7-1 record and a 1.79 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. He doesn’t qualify for the leaderboard for those numbers at the moment but he has 80 innings over 14 starts for the year, which means he averages about five and two-thirds innings per game. Just trying to clarify that Abbott is making a lot of starts and these numbers have been sustainable. He has two starts where he has allowed more than one earned run. Two. One was against the Brewers, the other was against the Rockies. Phillies hitters have been pretty poor against Abbott in the past, getting just five hits in 29 at-bats.
The Phillies are in control of their division at the moment and continue to find ways to win games. This is a team that has had some sustained excellence over the past few years, and frankly, I don’t see that changing anytime soon. The Phillies are one of the better-hitting teams in baseball, but they don’t have quite as many runs as you’d think. The pitching staff has been very good, despite having quite a few issues themselves. Aaron Nola was terrible before they put him on the injured list. The other pitchers outside of Wheeler haven’t been great, either. One guy that was great originally, but has kind of struggled at times, is today’s starter, Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo is 7-4 with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP, which is rather high. He has allowed 43 earned runs this season, and 20 of those runs came in back-to-back starts at the end of May and beginning of June. Outside of that, he has allowed more than three earned runs in a game just once this year. Reds hitters have been good against Luzardo in limited exposure. Overall, they are 6 for 17 against him overall.
I think this game should probably be one that goes under the total. Luzardo has been good, and better at home. Outside of the two terrible starts, he has been pretty reliable. However, I actually think the better idea is to take the Reds in this one. If you want to take the first five I won’t blame you, but I think the Reds win this game. Their offense is good enough to hang with the Phillies, and they have the better pitcher.
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