Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens square off in the Round of 16 at Wimbledon on Sunday, July 6. The match will tentatively start at 9:40 a.m. ET on Center Court and will be broadcast on ESPN.
After defeating Emma Raducanu with a great rebound effort in the second set — rally from 4-1 down — the World No.1 will take on the 23rd-ranked Belgian in Mertens, who beat Elina Svitolina on Friday.
Find my Wimbledon Round of 16 preview and Sabalenka vs Mertens prediction for Sunday below.
Place This Bet Instantly!Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens Prediction
- Sabalenka vs Mertens Pick: Sabalenka -4.5 (-135, BetMGM)
My Sabalenka vs Mertens best bet is on Sabalenka to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live Wimbledon odds page.
Sabalenka vs Mertens Odds
Aryna Sabalenka Odds-450Elise Mertens Odds+310SpreadSabalenka -4.5 (-135), Mertens +4.5 (-110)Over/Under20.5 (-120o / -118u)Sabalenka vs Mertens H2H10-2Time | How to WatchSunday, 9:40 a.m. ET | ESPNOdds via BetMGM
Carlos Avilan’s Sabalenka vs Mertens Preview, Prediction
Aryna Sabalenka Betting Preview
Wimbledon 2025 has been a nightmare for top-seeded players — men and women alike — but Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t wavered.
She is one of only four top-10 players remaining in the tournament, along with Iga Swiatek (4th), Mirra Andreeva (7th) and Emma Navarro (10th).
This makes it seem a wide-open path to the title for the World No. 1. Still, there are darkhorses in all of those upsets that are gaining recognition, such as Liudmila Samsonova, who is probably the toughest rival right now on the other side of the bracket.
However, we should not get ahead of ourselves, not least Sabalenka. She must keep the aggressiveness shown in the last match against Emma Raducanu, even if it means racking up a few unforced errors.
Sabalenka will also need to improve her service game percentages. Mertens is very adept at returning and is an excellent defender, so playing it safe will not do it for Sabalenka in this match.
Elise Mertens Betting Preview
Elise Mertens eliminated Elina Svitolina in the previous round, and she did it by taking every chance the Ukrainian gave her, which should be the formula again versus Sabalenka.
The Belgian converted all three break points she had against Svitolina in the first set to take it 6-1 and then prevailed in the second-set tiebreaker 7-6(4). Svitolina had a poor 30% success rate on her second serve, and Mertens capitalized.
Mertens is known for being a solid returner and a great all-around defender, not only from the baseline but also at the net.
Mertens is playing the Round of 16 in London for the third time in her career and has yet to advance to Wimbledon’s quarterfinals.
With such a crazy tournament so far, it is not entirely out of the question that she can finally achieve that, although this seems to be Sabalenka’s time to win it all.
Sabalenka vs Mertens Predictions, Betting Analysis
Three weeks ago, Mertens won the WTA 250 grass tournament in Hertogenbosch, Netherlands, and has performed really well in her three matches at Wimbledon this week.
Nevertheless, this is Sabalenka’s match to lose. If she plays her game confidently, without falling into despair if things don’t go her way early, she should reach not only the quarterfinals but the final, since her side of the bracket now has Amanda Anisimova as the only under-30 seed left.
Sabalenka dominates 10-2 in the head-to-head against Mertens, who happens to be her former doubles partner, so it’s not a small sample. Sabalenka has defeated her on hard courts, clay, and grass, winning the last nine encounters in a row.
Pick: Sabalenka -4.5 (-135, BetMGM)
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