Mar 26, 2025, 09:30 AM ET
The 2025 men’s NCAA tournament continues Thursday and Friday with the Sweet 16, and all four No. 1 seeds remain.
So what can we expect in the Sweet 16, and which point spreads and over/unders are worth betting on?
Let’s factor in team trends, injuries, momentum and more to identify the smartest wagers to make over the weekend.
Odds are accurate as of publication time. For the latest odds, go to ESPN BET.
Thursday’s games
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 6 BYU Cougars, 7:09 p.m. ET
Bet: BYU +5.5
These are two of the most explosive offensive teams in the country and in the case of Alabama, the team with the fastest tempo in the country. Playing against such a high-octane team like the Crimson Tide requires either depth or great cardio, and BYU has both with nine different players who average at least 17.5 minutes per game. Though Richie Saunders is the only player on the roster averaging more than 10.5 points per game, all nine of the Cougars’ rotation players average at least 5.8 points per game. With Alabama’s defense being vulnerable on the inside and the team’s offense being very reliant on 3-point shooting, BYU will keep things close and have a chance to spring the upset.
No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 4 Maryland Terrapins, 7:39 p.m. ET
Bet: Under 156.5
Create up to 25 new men’s brackets beginning at the Sweet 16 and compete for $50K in total prizes! Tournament Challenge Second Chance
Both teams rank No. 21 or better in total possessions per game and while they’ve been playing at pretty fast paces this season, it would not be surprising to see Maryland slow down the tempo. All five of Maryland’s starters average at least 12 points per game and nobody on the bench registers more than 3.5 points per game. For as explosive of a shooter as Walter Clayton Jr. is, Florida as a team is shooting only 33.9% from 3-point range in games played away from home. With both teams ranked No. 14 or better nationally in opponent 3-point shooting percentage and Maryland entering this game having allowed 71 points or fewer in eight of their past nine games, this has the makings of a defensive struggle.
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 4 Arizona Wildcats, 9:39 p.m ET
Bet: Under 153.5
The first time these two teams met, Duke won a 69-55 slog on Nov. 22 in Tucson and though another game where Arizona gets only 55 points is a bit unrealistic, the Wildcats backcourt of Jaden Bradley and Caleb Love has been very streaky. Arizona as a whole is shooting only 32.4% from 3-point range at home and face a Duke team that is more stout defensively than most realize. Most Duke chatter centers around the team leading the country in offensive efficiency and Cooper Flagg‘s dominance, but Duke also ranks third in fewest points per possession allowed on defense and is a slower tempo team than most realize, giving the under plenty of value.
No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks, 10:09 p.m. ET
Bet: Texas Tech -5.5
While Arkansas is as healthy as they have been all season with Noi. 2 scorer Boogie Fland returning for the NCAA tournament, their post play will be put to the test by JT Toppin. Toppin has registered a double-double in five of Texas Tech’s past six games and gives the team the option to beat opposing defenses both on the inside, or with a stable of guards who shoot 37.1% from 3-point range. Arkansas is shooting only 31.3% from 3-point range in games played away from home and with Toppin being the most dominant big man in this game, it could allow Texas Tech to win by a comfortable margin.
Friday’s games
Chaz Lanier and the Volunteers try to avoid a third loss to Kentucky this season. Aaron Doster-Imagn Images
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats, 7:39 p.m.
Bet: Tennessee -3.5
This is a revenge spot with Kentucky defeating Tennessee in both games during the regular season. In those two matchups, Kentucky shot 24-of-48 from 3-point range against a Tennessee team that has allowed opponents to shoot only 27.1% from 3-point range this season. The Volunteers also have Chaz Lanier, the top scorer in this game. With the game being played on a neutral court and Tennessee having the rebounding advantage, Kentucky’s outside shooting should regress and Tennessee will get their revenge in a big way.
No. 1 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 5 Michigan Wolverines, 9:39 p.m. ET
Bet: Auburn -8.5
Details loom large in this matchup and the turnover discrepancy is glaring. Auburn’s 9.3 turnovers per game are the seventh fewest in the country while Michigan’s 13.9 turnovers per game ranks 337th and become amplified further by Johni Broome having the ability to overwhelm Michigan’s big men. Throw in the quartet of Auburn guards Chad Baker-Mazara, Miles Kelly, Tahaad Pettiford and Denver Jones all shooting at least 37.9% from 3-point range with all four averaging between 10.8 and 12.5 points per game, the balance of Auburn will shift the balance of power in this game.
No. 1 Houston Cougars vs. No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers, 10:09 p.m. ET
Bet: Under 132.5
While the game being played in the state of Indiana does help Purdue, Houston plays a style that can win anywhere. The Cougars play at a bottom-10 pace in average possession length in the country while also leading the country in 3-point shooting percentage. Though Purdue big man Trey Kaufman-Renn is Purdue’s leading scorer with 20.3 points and is averaging 6.5 rebounds, Purdue’s dip in interior defense is undeniable, as the team ranks 341st in opponent 2-point shooting percentage at 56.8%. Houston allows the fewest points both per game and per possession in the country. Pair that up with their explosive 3-point shooting, it leads to a bad matchup for Purdue.
