1. Washington Nationals
Pick: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
Before Mike Rizzo was let go, folks would have put Ethan Holliday here given the relationship of that regime with Holliday’s agent, Scott Boras, as well as the Rizzo era’s penchant for high-upside high school players. There is some industry conjecture that the key pieces of Washington’s core that might make sense to extend (James Wood, MacKenzie Gore) who are also Boras clients are not receptive to the idea of extensions, and frustration stemming from this might make the new leadership group less apt to want to work with Boras, who represents all the players here not named Eli Willits. About an hour before the draft I started to get wind of rumors that Washington was looking to cut a deal with one of Holliday, Anderson or Willits, whoever takes the least of that group. Willits’ next alternative seems like pick number five, making him the most likely to cut the biggest deal.
2. Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
In keeping with the Angels’ consistent modus operandi of taking quick-moving college guys, teams have put them with Doyle (most frequently), Kade Anderson, and/or on a deal cut with Ike Irish. I did have one person suggest they were a threat to take Holliday, but just one.
3. Seattle Mariners
Pick: Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (OK)
If the draft lottery gods were kind to you and you moved up as much as the Mariners did, wouldn’t you feel like you were playing with house money and feel comfortable taking the potential franchise-altering player?
4. Colorado Rockies
Pick: Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
This is generally seen as Ethan’s floor. Folks think Colorado would take a college arm if he isn’t here, and in this scenario, Anderson is.
5. St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (CA)
Lots of Eli Willits smoke here, though if Jojo Parker’s and Billy Carlson’s camps think they’re falling pretty deep, they might be under-slot targets here. Teams like Ike Irish enough that he could go anywhere from here through pick 10.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Ike Irish, C/OF, Auburn
Mentioned here have been Jamie Arnold (in the Anthony Solometo mechanical mold, so it makes sense), Aiva Arquette, and Billy Carlson, but dope around Pittsburgh the last couple of years has almost never been correct. Irish might be the quickest-moving hitter from this draft class; he’s as stable a position player prospect as there is in the draft as the clock ticks on this front office to put together a competitive team.
7. Miami Marlins
Pick: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
Teams have put all the high school shortstops here, and also Ike Irish and Seth Hernandez. Carlson performed from a contact standpoint but has some visual hit tool risk, similar to Carter Johnson and PJ Morlando last year.
8. Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
I don’t have any specific dope here, this is just good value if Arquette falls this far. College pitchers with fastball playability tend to be Toronto’s style, which could put Jamie Arnold and Kyson Witherspoon in their mix. I’m not sure any of the high school shortstops scratch their itch because they’re all older.
9. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL)
Seth Hernandez if he’s here. Teams think the Reds are keeping their options open and that they’re in play for any of the high school shortstops. In this scenario, Parker and Hall are here. Hall’s speed and athleticism are more a fit for what they’ve tended to do.
10. Chicago White Sox
Pick: Jojo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS)
11. Athletics
Pick: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
12. Texas Rangers
Pick: Gavin Fien, 3B/OF, Great Oak HS (CA)
13. San Francisco Giants
Pick: Tyler Bremner, RHP, UCSB
14. Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
15. Boston Red Sox
Pick: Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee
The last couple of days, folks have mentioned that Arnold is falling. He’d be a great buy-low for the A’s. Fien and Jace LaViolette have been mentioned with Texas. Industry sources put the Giants more on college players now that Buster Posey is running things. I’ve been told the Rays are Kyson Witherspoon’s floor. Boston is expected to make a model-driven pick and Kilen’s bat-to-ball skills fit there. He could also go a pick earlier to San Francisco. This is the area where people think Daniel Pierce will cut a deal.
16. Minnesota Twins
Pick: Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee
17. Chicago Cubs
Pick: Josh Hammond, SS, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC)
18. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (GA)
19. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
20. Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
Arizona has a bunch of picks and therefore perhaps more motivation to cut a deal, and Pierce is rumored to have one somewhere in this range. Baltimore has taken toolsy college hitters with plate discipline issues the last few years, and this year that’s Aloy. Milwaukee has tended to target high schoolers of late, but the contact-oriented up-the-middle guys left here (Bodine, Marek Houston) could tempt them, too.
21. Houston Astros
Pick: Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M
22. Atlanta Braves
Pick: Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas
23. Kansas City Royals
Pick: Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (WA)
24. Detroit Tigers
Pick: Kayson Cunningham, INF, Johnson City HS (TX)
25. San Diego Padres
Pick: Marcus Phillips, RHP, Tennessee
Houston targets toolsy college guys, even when they have strikeout risk. At this stage, that’s Jace, and Aloy if he’s there. There are several surface-scratching arms with good fastballs here for Atlanta to consider (Patrick Forbes, Matthew Fisher); that’s their type, riding heaters with good breakers.
26. Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Dax Kilby, INF, Newnan HS (GA)
27. Cleveland Guardians
Pick: Devin Taylor, OF Indiana
Prospect Promotion Incentive Picks
28. Kansas City Royals (Received for Bobby Witt Jr. finishing in top 3 of MVP voting)
Pick: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS (OR)
Compensation Picks
29. Arizona Diamondbacks (Compensation for Christian Walker)
Pick: Slater de Brun, CF, Summit HS (OR)
30. Baltimore Orioles (Compensation for Corbin Burnes)
Pick: Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (IN)
31. Baltimore Orioles (Compensation for Anthony Santander)
Pick: Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
32. Milwaukee Brewers (Compensation for Willy Adames)
Pick: Jaden Fauske, C/OF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL)
