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Donald Trump had two choices Friday after federal reports made clear that job growth had stagnated all summer—undercutting his consistent, fantastic claims of a booming economy. He could reverse course on some of his policies, including his aggressive, counterproductive tariffs. Or he could deny his own government’s data, throw an online tantrum, and fire the government official who oversees the jobs report.
Even if you haven’t already heard, you can probably guess what he did.
On Friday, Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics—the apolitical agency that releases those monthly jobs reports. Housed within the Department of Labor, the bureau is responsible for collecting economic data on everything from wages to the rate of inflation.
On Friday morning, the BLS released preliminary data suggesting the economy added only 73,000 jobs last month, way lower than the economists’ predicted number of 115,000. The report also updated its payroll tallies for May and June, revising down their combined growth estimate by a quarter-million jobs. In other words: Previous reports of the Trump economy’s sturdy shape were mistaken, and this summer has seen a major slowdown in hiring.
To be clear, it is not at all uncommon for the BLS to revisit its previous job counts. As the bureau itself has often clarified, these recalculations reflect new information that wasn’t available when the data were first compiled. It’s why the monthly jobs number is always labeled “preliminary.”
That’s not how the president would prefer to see it. Shortly after 2 p.m., Trump posted on Truth Social that “I was just informed that our Country’s ‘Jobs Numbers’ are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics,” going on to parrot an unfounded (but not uncommon) right-wing conspiracy theory that Commissioner McEntarfer had also cooked some of last year’s jobs numbers, for the reputational benefit of then-President Joe Biden and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. “I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY.” NBC News soon confirmed that the firing had in fact been carried out. As BLS Deputy Commissioner and career government statistician Bill Wiatrowski stepped in to temporarily fill in the role, Trump continued to rave about McEntarfer online, writing on Truth Social: “In my opinion, today’s Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad.” That opinion was all but endorsed by Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who expressed “concerns about decisions being made by” McEntarfer.
It shouldn’t have to be said, but this is a bunch of hooey. Throughout his term, Trump has consistently praised the BLS jobs numbers when they were looking rosy for him. (That was likely thanks to the spillover effects from the Biden economy.) Further, while this month’s revisions were indeed hefty, it’s hardly the first time the bureau has made major corrections—and been publicly transparent about them. It’s simply a part of the process.
The Friends of BLS, an independent financial-data group that advocates for the bureau, noted in a statement that “the process of obtaining the numbers is decentralized by design to avoid opportunities for interference,” further deeming McEntarfer’s firing to be “without merit.” Notably, the association’s co-chairs include William Beach, who served as labor statistics commissioner during Trump’s first term. Even Stephen Miran, the Trump-appointed chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, explained to CNBC Friday that “seasonal factors,” uncertainty around tariffs, and the elimination of “foreign-born jobs”—that is, gigs held by immigrants who’d been deported or detained—were likely contributors to the revisions. Not any undue rigging.
It should be said, however, that BLS revisions aren’t usually this severe. But if Trump is concerned about the quality of the data, he only has himself to blame. As the Wall Street Journal reported in June, Trump-era staffing cuts—under the auspices of Elon Musk’s “DOGE”—have left the BLS with fewer workers, which led some economists to raise questions about its continued ability to accurately gauge inflation. The elimination of some BLS advisory groups, followed by the deletion of data sets that don’t align with the Trump administration’s narrative, also haven’t helped things.
But whether it’s simply a statistical quirk or a result of staff shortages, the BLS’ big revision doesn’t mean—as many professional economists have noted—that anyone was personally interfering with economic data. What happened here is that Trump was hit with an unflattering truth, and rather than adjust to it, he denied reality.
Now, the agency that businesses, consumers, bankers, and voters depend on for reliable, high-quality information about the economy will be led by a hand-picked Trump appointee, who will take the post knowing that their predecessor was fired for telling the truth.
Trump has not been shy about his rabid desire to bend the economy to his will, as evidenced by his pressure campaign to get Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates sooner than the Fed desires. The Supreme Court has told the president that he legally cannot fire Powell, not that that’s stopped him from keeping up the threats. But even if Powell stays, Friday handed Trump an opportunity to get a bit more influence over the independent central bank.
Adriana Kugler, a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors and voter on the Federal Open Market Committee—which decides interest rate adjustments—suddenly and unexpectedly wrote a letter to the president announcing her imminent resignation. Kugler’s term isn’t up until the end of January, and she did not explain the rationale behind her departure (although she pointedly thanked Powell “for his unwavering commitment to the Federal Reserve and the American people”).
Whatever the reason, her vacancy leaves an important slot open on the Fed for Trump to fill however he likes, and he’s not going to rush his pick. The president has long been frothing about Powell’s insistence on not yet lowering our high interest rates—at least not while the economy remains in flux and the inflation rate remains hotter than preferred (thanks in part to the tariffs).
On Wednesday, the Fed’s Board of Governors convened for their regularly scheduled vote on interest rates—with Kugler noticeably absent. Powell once again pressed his desire to keep current interest rates steady, an outcome that the board had unanimously supported since December. However, this particular meeting saw two Fed governors dissent from the chair’s decision, making for the most divided Fed vote since 1993. The two naysayers, who’d been appointed during Trump’s first term, later doubled down on their stance, claiming to be less worried about Trump’s tariffs than their boss. They did not publicly undermine Powell, but Trump certainly took their dissents to heart, ramping up his Truth Social tirades against “ ‘Too Late’ Powell.”
It stands to reason, then, that another Trump appointee on the Fed board would hew closer to Trump than to Powell (who, of course, was initially appointed during Trump’s first term). And these powerful Fed officers will make their future interest-rate decisions based on Bureau of Labor Statistics data that will be overseen by someone Trump hand-picks for the position after gauging their loyalty. For all we know, the two replacements could turn out to be fiercely independent. But in light of Trump’s sweeping federal overhauls, that’s not the safest bet to take.
That’s the rub right there: No one knows for sure what’s coming next. The economic uncertainty will not die down anytime soon, and America’s “gold standard” measurements will be viewed far more skeptically than ever before.
