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The Atlanta Hawks will host the Miami Heat on Friday evening in the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament. The winner earns the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference and takes on the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the 2025 NBA playoffs. The Hawks went 40-42 this season and are coming off a 120-95 loss to the Magic on Tuesday. The Heat defeated the Bulls, 109-90, on Wednesday after a 37-45 regular season. Atlanta and Miami split their four regular-season matchups with the home team winning each time. Trae Young (Achilles) is listed as probable, while Kevin Love (personal) is out.
Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET from State Farm Arena in Atlanta, where the home team is 21-19 this season, while Miami is 17-23 on the road. Miami is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Hawks vs. Heat odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, after Atlanta opened as 1.5-point favorites. The over/under for total points scored is 220.5. Miami is at -118 on the money line (risk $118 to win $100), while Atlanta is at -101 (risk $101 to win $100). Before entering any Heat vs. Hawks picks for the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 156-115 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
The model has set its sights on Miami vs. Atlanta. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Hawks vs. Heat:
- Hawks vs. Heat spread: Heat -1.5 on DraftKings
- Hawks vs. Heat over/under: 220.5 points
- Hawks vs. Heat money line: Hawks -101, Heat -118
- ATL: The Over has hit in five of Atlanta’s last six home games
- MIA: The Heat are 11-4 against the spread (ATS) over their last 15 games
- Hawks vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Hawks vs. Heat streaming: FuboTV (try for free)
Why the Heat can cover
The Heat were dominant in the first half on Wednesday. Miami scored a season-high 71 points in the first half of its 109-90 road win against Chicago and held a 71-47 halftime lead before coasting to victory. Tyler Herro scored 38 points, including a season-high 23 points in the first half, and a short turnaround could be beneficial to a team that dominated like the Heat did on Wednesday.
Miami is no stranger to the Play-In Tournament, as it has made the postseason the last two years after competing in the Play-In. Coach Erik Spoelstra seems to always have Miami playing its best for the postseason and Wednesday was another example of that. The Heat held the Bulls to 39.8% shooting, including 27% on 3-pointers, and can carry what worked on Wednesday into Friday’s matchup against Atlanta. See which team to pick here.
Why the Hawks can cover
The Hawks have one more chance at making their fourth postseason over the last five years, and this is their fourth straight season in the NBA Play-In Tournament. The Hawks had a rough offensive performance in a 120-95 loss to the Magic on Tuesday, but Orlando’s No. 1-ranked scoring defense can often do that to teams. The Hawks, the No. 5 scoring offense in the league, won’t be facing as elite of a defensive unit on Friday. Miami was seventh in the league in scoring defense (109.8 ppg), and the Hawks scored at least 109 points in three of four games against the Heat.
Trae Young had 28 points against the Magic after ranking 14th in the NBA in scoring at 24.2 points per game this season. He led the NBA in assists (11.6 per game), and the four-time All-Star averaged 25.9 points and 12.0 assists over seven April contests. Atlanta won each of its home contests against Miami by at least 10 points during the regular season. See which team to pick here.
How to make Hawks vs. Heat picks
The model has simulated Heat vs. Hawks 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under the total, projecting 220 points, and it also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Hawks vs. Heat, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Hawks spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 156-115 roll on top-rated NBA picks since last season, and find out.
