What’s at Stake for the U.S. if India and Pakistan go to War?

The recent attack in Kashmir, which killed 26 people, has escalated tensions between India and Pakistan, posing a serious challenge for U.S. foreign policy.

As both countries stand on the brink of further military escalation, the United States must navigate a complex diplomatic landscape. Washington’s support for India, its growing partnership with the country, and its efforts to manage its relationship with Pakistan amid its increasing ties to China are critical in ensuring regional stability and avoiding a larger conflict.

Newsweek has reached out to the State Department for further comment.

Why It Matters

The India-Pakistan conflict is not just a regional issue—its implications extend globally. Both India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons, and any military escalation could lead to catastrophic consequences.

The United States has long considered South Asia a vital region in global peace and security. A destabilized region could undermine global efforts to combat terrorism and support economic growth. A misstep in handling this delicate situation could have severe consequences for U.S. interests worldwide.

Indian Border Security Force (BSF) soldiers stand guard at the India-Pakistan Wagah border post on the outskirts of Amritsar on April 24, 2025. At least 26 people were killed April 22 in Indian-administered Kashmir when… Indian Border Security Force (BSF) soldiers stand guard at the India-Pakistan Wagah border post on the outskirts of Amritsar on April 24, 2025. At least 26 people were killed April 22 in Indian-administered Kashmir when gunmen opened fire on tourists in the insurgency-hit region’s deadliest attack on civilians since 2000. Narinder NANU/Getty Images

What to Know

In the wake of the attack, the Trump administration has unequivocally condemned the act of terrorism and voiced its support for India. On Thursday, U.S. State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated, “As President Trump and Secretary Rubio have made clear, the United States stands with India, strongly condemns all acts of terrorism.” Bruce further emphasized that the U.S. is “monitoring the situation closely,” but refrained from taking a stance on the territorial dispute over Kashmir, recognizing the delicate balance needed in addressing the complex issue.

J.D. Vance’s Visit

Vice President J.D. Vance was in India during the attack in Kashmir, but his trip was part of a previously planned diplomatic mission aimed at strengthening U.S.-India relations. In the aftermath, Vance also reaffirmed U.S. support for India, condemning the attack and emphasizing the importance of the U.S.-India partnership. His visit underscored the strategic significance of bilateral ties, particularly as tensions with Pakistan escalated. Vance’s presence at such a critical moment allowed for immediate engagement with Indian leadership.

U.S.-India Under Trump

The Trump administration has significantly deepened its engagement with India, particularly through the launch of the “U.S.-India COMPACT” initiative in February. This partnership focuses on enhancing military cooperation, expanding trade, and fostering technological collaboration. The U.S. is also negotiating a bilateral trade agreement with India, expected to be finalized by autumn 2025. These efforts solidify India’s role as a central partner in the U.S.’s Indo-Pacific strategy, especially as tensions with China continue to escalate. As a result, India is positioned as a strategic ally, and the U.S. has made it clear that it will continue to support India in the face of terrorism and regional threats.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance delivers remarks at the Rajasthan International Centre in Jaipur, India, Tuesday, April 22, 2025. U.S. Vice President JD Vance delivers remarks at the Rajasthan International Centre in Jaipur, India, Tuesday, April 22, 2025. Kenny Holston/AP Photo

Pakistan’s Ties with China

In parallel, Pakistan has been strengthening its relationship with China. In February 2025, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari visited China to advance defense and economic cooperation, particularly focusing on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects. This partnership is characterized as an “all-weather” relationship, with both countries reaffirming mutual support against external pressures. Despite challenges, such as security concerns for Chinese nationals in Pakistan, the cooperation between the two countries remains robust.

What People Are Saying

U.S. State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated: “The United States stands with India, strongly condemns all acts of terrorism. We pray for the lives of those lost and for the recovery of the injured and call for the perpetrators of this heinous act to be brought to justice.”

U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance said: “Growing relations between our countries over the last decade are part of what led America to designate India a Major Defense Partner — the first of that class.”

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun commented: “We strongly condemn the attack. China firmly opposes all forms of terrorism. We mourn for the lives lost and express sincere sympathies to the bereaved families and the injured.”

What Happens Next

As tensions rise, the U.S. will need to balance its support for India with calls for restraint from Pakistan. With both nations holding nuclear weapons, the risk of escalation is high. Washington will likely push for diplomatic solutions, aiming to de-escalate the crisis and prevent further violence. The situation’s outcome will not only impact South Asia but could also reshape global security, particularly with China’s growing influence in the region.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, shakes hands with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, Wednesday Feb. 5, 2025. Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, shakes hands with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, Wednesday Feb. 5, 2025. Wu Hao/AP Photo

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