March Madness has been anything but mad this year. Favorites of six or more points are 32-2 straight up during the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. Teams favored by seven or more points are an astonishing 26-1, with Clemson’s first-round loss to No. 12 seed McNeese State the lone blemish. Favorites have won 14 straight games outright in the men’s bracket, and the Final Four will feature four No. 1 seeds for just the second time in the event’s modern history.
Coincidentally, that first all-top-seed Final Four was staged 17 years ago in San Antonio, the same city that will host this year’s Final Four. The semifinals that year were both decided by at least 15 points, but the taut championship game — in which Kansas beat Memphis in overtime — was one of the most memorable in tournament history.
Here are my best bets for Saturday’s semifinals as a predictable tournament reaches its climax.
All spreads were taken from DraftKings on Wednesday afternoon. For the tournament, Duke is now a +100 favorite to win the national championship, followed by Florida (+300), Houston (+400) and Auburn (+550).
No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 1 Florida (-2.5)
Best bet: Florida -2.5, playable to Florida -3
Florida has all the ingredients to beat its SEC rival in the Final Four’s opening game: resilience, firepower and a superstar who thrives in the biggest moments in Walter Clayton Jr. No team in the country delivers knockout runs quite like the Gators, flipping games on their head in mere minutes.
The Gators erased a nine-point deficit in the Elite Eight with an 18-4 blitz against West Region No. 3 seed Texas Tech, dominated No. 4 Maryland in the regional semifinal thanks to a 47-33 second-half advantage and started the tournament by pouring in 53 points in less than 17 minutes against No. 16 Norfolk State. Florida’s ability to overwhelm elite teams was on full display in the SEC tournament final, where it turned a tie game against Tennessee into a 12-point lead over an eight-minute stretch late in the first half. This team doesn’t just survive; it seizes control of games.
Florida already proved it can handle the spotlight of facing a top team, winning at Auburn in February, 90-81, with its typical aggression and composure. In that game, the Gators held Auburn to just 43 percent shooting from the field and controlled the tempo throughout, closing the first half with a 23-7 run during which they made a trio of three-pointers. That fearless, attacking mindset gives Florida a real edge in this rematch.
Finally, the Gators have played 15 games this season against teams that like to slow the pace down as Auburn does. The Tigers’ defensive possessions average 17.6 seconds this season, per analyst Ken Pomeroy’s data. In those 15 matchups against teams using a similarly restrictive style, Florida is 13-2, with an average margin of victory of 18.1 points. Of the 13 wins in those contexts, the Gators won by less than three points just twice.
With its fearless mentality, balanced attack and game-breaking momentum, Florida is built to take down Auburn and reach the championship game.
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 Duke (-5.5)
Best bet: Under 136.5 points, playable to 134.5
Both teams rank among the top five nationally in defensive efficiency, according to Pomeroy, and both are also among the slowest-paced teams in the country. Houston is 360th and Duke 268th in adjusted tempo, an estimate of the number of possessions a team would have against an average-paced team. That suggests long, grinding possessions and limited transition scoring.
The Cougars’ defensive scheme is designed to shrink the court, limit space and force teams into uncomfortable, contested shots. Houston also excels at defending the three-point line — a key part of Duke’s offensive footprint — holding opponents to just 30.1 percent shooting from deep, the 13th-lowest rate in the nation. That could spell trouble for a Blue Devils team that thrives on ball movement and perimeter looks, especially if freshman star Cooper Flagg doesn’t dominate and his supporting cast struggles to create offense.
Add in Coach Kelvin Sampson’s tournament experience and a potential edge in late-game shot creation from the Cougars’ trio of guards and you get a game that is likely to be played in the half court, with every possession feeling like a battle. While the exact result might be tough to predict, the style of play points clearly to a low-scoring, defensive slugfest — making the under the most appealing play on the board.
