We’ve reached the point of Champ Week where potential bid thieves are a bit easier to identify. Here are the teams we will be watching intently over the next couple of days.

• AAC: Memphis is definitely in regardless of what happens over the next couple of days. Given the number of close games they’ve played, the Tigers will likely be at the center of some tense moments for bubble teams.

• Atlantic-10: I’m not convinced VCU would get an at-large, but bubblers will pull for the Rams to remove that possibility from the equation.

• Big West: It will be UC San Diego and UC Irvine for the title, but no matter who loses, there is a potential at-large case to be made. Since UCSD has the better profile, teams on the cutline should root for them.

• Mountain West: Because Colorado State is the higher seed, I have them projected as the auto-bid in today’s projections but despite their impressive play, there is still a chance they get left out with a loss to Boise in the finals. I think a similar argument could be made that Boise is out with a loss too, but the Broncos have the stronger at-large case, given their key non-conference victories.

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Looking ahead, my next update will be on Sunday ahead of the selection show. Between now and then, there are still a few areas I want to take a closer look at, particularly the end of the four line through the beginning of the eight line. There are pockets of teams in that range, but that general section is where I feel least confident right now. I’ll also be scrubbing the 10 and 11 lines, which could lead to some small moves there.

Here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:

· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75

· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135

· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240

· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-364 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-364 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-364

The projections below are based on all games played through March 14th, 2025. Following the bracket, I included some quick notes on the last four in and first four out.

ATLANTA (SOUTH) NEWARK (EAST) Lexington – March 20/22 Raleigh – March 21/23 1) Auburn 1) Duke 16) Jackson St. / St. Francis* 16) American* / Iona 8) Marquette

8) Creighton 9) Baylor 9) Mississippi St. Seattle – March 21/23 Providence – March 20/22 5) Oregon

5) Ole Miss 12) McNeese* 12) Boise St. / UC Irvine

4) Arizona 4) Maryland 13) Akron 13) High Point* Milwaukee – March 21/23 Milwaukee – March 21/23 6) Saint Mary’s 6) Illinois 11) West Virginia 11) San Diego St. / Vanderbilt 3) Kentucky 3) Iowa St. 14) UNC-Wilmington* 14) Montana* Cleveland – March 21/23 Cleveland – March 21/23 7) Louisville 7) Gonzaga* 10) Arkansas 10) Oklahoma 2) Michigan St. 2) Tennessee 15) Wofford*

15) Bryant* SAN FRANCISCO (WEST) INDIANAPOLIS (MIDWEST) Raleigh – March 21/23 Wichita – March 20/22 1) Florida 1) Houston 16) Norfolk St. 16) SIU-Edwardsville* 8) Connecticut 8) Memphis 9) New Mexico 9) Georgia Seattle – March 21/23 Denver – March 20/22 5) Clemson 5) Michigan 12) Colorado St. 12) Liberty* 4) Purdue 4) Wisconsin 13) Lipscomb* 13) Yale Wichita – March 20/22 Denver – March 20/22 6) BYU 6) UCLA 11) VCU

11) UC San Diego 3) Texas Tech 3) Texas A&M 14) Troy* 14) Utah Valley Providence – March 20/22 Lexington – March 20/22 7) Missouri 7) Kansas 10) Drake* 10) Utah St. 2) St. John’s 2) Alabama 15) Omaha* 15) Robert Morris* freestar.config.enabled_slots.push({ placementName: “insidethehall-com_incontent_articles_reusable”, slotId: “insidethehall-com_incontent_articles_reusable_1” });

Last Four In:

Vanderbilt – Ultimately, I feel comfortable that the Commodores will be in the field, but a poor non-conference strength of schedule and a 12-12 mark in non-Q4 games has pushed them into the last four in. Vandy has struggled on the road and sits at 1-8 in Q1 games away from home, but a quartet of strong home wins and a road victory at Texas A&M should be just enough.

San Diego State – The Aztecs are 3-5 in Q1 with neutral-court wins against Houston and Creighton to go with a road win at Boise State, but they have a Q3 loss and only 12 non-Q4 victories. The result-based metrics are solid, so the Aztecs feel safe for selection, but predictive metrics hovering around 50th could impact seeding. Similar to Vandy, I don’t think there’s a ton of risk here. The last couple spots is where it starts to get dicey.

Boise State – Last week’s home loss to Colorado State put the Broncos in a tough spot, but they have come up huge in the Mountain West tournament with wins against San Diego State and New Mexico. Since Colorado State is the higher seed, they are the projected auto-bid, and ultimately CSU winning the tournament gives the league its best chance to send five teams to the dance. Boise does have a loss in each of Q3 and Q4 along with result-based metrics that are right around 50th, but non-conference wins against Saint Mary’s and Clemson have aged extremely well. The Broncos have also knocked off Utah State and New Mexico at home in addition to the wins they picked up in Vegas this week.

UC Irvine – Understanding how the committee might handle the Anteaters is tough. On the one hand, they have now won 18 road/neutral games and boast a Q1A road victory to go with a 4-2 mark in the top two quadrants. Conversely, UC Irvine has predictive metrics that average in the upper 70s. The result-based metrics average in the upper 40s, which is actually better than a number of other teams I considered. Personally, this is the kind of team I’d like to see get a shot instead of middling power conference teams, but I am trying to predict what the committee will do. While I’m not convinced they would give UCI the nod, I’m leaving them in for now.

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First Four Out:

Indiana – After Thursday’s loss to Oregon, IU is just 4-13 in Q1 contests, but they have no losses outside of the top quadrant. The Hoosiers have nine wins across Q1 and Q2 and while some blowout losses earlier in the season hurt the predictive metrics, their result-based metrics average out in the low 40s, which tend to hold more weight in the selection process. IU has just two victories against at-large teams in the field, which will leave them sweating over the next couple days.

Xavier – The Musketeers dropped a close game to Marquette in their Big East tournament opener, and they now sit at 1-9 in Q1 contests, with the lone win coming at Marquette. They have two losses outside of Q1 and are 14-11 in non-Q4 games, including home wins against UConn and Creighton. It’s worth noting that even though Xavier has two Q2 losses compared to none for IU, the Musketeers have more wins against the projected field. The margin between Xavier and Indiana is incredibly thin, so the order of these two is up for debate.

Texas – The Longhorns stayed alive by knocking off Vanderbilt and Texas A&M in the SEC tournament, and seven Q1 wins and solid predictive metrics make the Longhorns a viable candidate. However, they played a weak non-conference schedule and are just 12-15 in non-Q4 games. It feels like every year there is a team the committee punishes for playing a poor non-con schedule, and it feels like that team this year will be Texas.

North Carolina – I guess never say never, but after losing to the Cooper Flagg-less Blue Devils, I just don’t get the case for selecting UNC. The Heels have just one loss outside of Q1, but they are 1-12 in Q1 games and have only one victory against my projected field to go with a Q3 home loss to Stanford. The predictive metrics are strong relative to other bubble teams, but they simply don’t have the quality wins.

Conference Breakdown:

SEC (13): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Big Ten (8): Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin

Big 12 (8): Arizona, Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia

Big East (4): Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s

ACC (3): Clemson, Duke, Louisville

Mountain West (5): Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah State

Big West (2): UC Irvine, UC San Diego

West Coast (2): Gonzaga*, Saint Mary’s

American: Memphis

Atlantic 10: VCU

America East: Bryant

Atlantic Sun: Lipscomb*

Big Sky: Montana*

Big South: High Point*

Colonial: UNC-Wilmington*

Conference USA: Liberty

Horizon: Robert Morris*

Ivy: Yale

MAAC: Iona

MAC: Akron

MEAC: Norfolk State

Missouri Valley: Drake*

Northeast: Saint Francis*

Ohio Valley: SIU-Edwardsville*

Patriot: American*

Southern: Wofford*

Southland: McNeese*

SWAC: Jackson State

Summit: Omaha*

Sun Belt: Troy*

WAC: Utah Valley

* – Automatic Bid

Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.

Category: Bracketology

Filed to: 2024-2025 Bracketology