Reynaldo Lopez vs. Dylan Cease looks like a solid starting pitching matchup on paper, but find out why our MLB betting picks believe these lineups will make plenty of contact on Friday night.
Kenny Ducey • Betting Analyst
Mar 28, 2025 • 15:03 ET • 4 min read
After a back-and-forth affair on Thursday which saw the San Diego Padres break out for four runs in the seventh inning to take their first game of the season, the Atlanta Braves will attempt to hit back when they run one of their greatest success stories from 2024 back out on the hill.
While many are wondering if Reynaldo Lopez can replicate his stellar 1.99 ERA from a season ago, not enough are talking about the shortcomings of Dylan Cease on the opposite side.
Without further ado, let’s get into my Braves vs. Padres predictions and hand out some MLB picks for Friday, March 28.
Braves vs Padres prediction
My Braves vs Padres best bet: Over 7 (-115 at FanDuel)
By the time Dylan Cease saw the Atlanta Braves a second time last season, the team he was facing was in a world of hurt. Ronald Acuna, Jr. had been lost for the year with an injury, Michael Harris II was also shelved, and the likes of Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario were manning the corner outfield spots.
That helped him spin a gem, leading people to forget what happened to him when he faced a healthier Braves lineup in May.
Cease was torched for five runs on nine hits and three walks, allowing two home runs before being chased from the game after four innings. It was a somewhat predictable outcome, because the Braves are a team which do a great job at limiting strikeouts — something that still rung somewhat true in the second half last year despite further injury concerns.
If Cease can’t find strikeouts, he’s often in a world of trouble. He did take a slight step forward last season with an 8.5% walk rate, but those have long been a concern of his — as are home runs considering he pitches to plenty of fly balls and hard contact.
Atlanta may prefer to hit ground-ball pitchers, but the difference is negligible. This was the sixth-best offense by OPS against “power pitchers” like Cease — who rack up strikeouts and walks — despite a down year overall at the plate.
This isn’t a matchup I love for Cease, who will go to battle against a disciplined, power-hungry team. On the flip side, it may not be so kind to Reynaldo Lopez, either.
Though I’d certainly lean towards Atlanta winning this one, the fact of the matter is that Lopez relies too heavily on strikeouts to make this one comfortable, just like his counterpart. He should have the benefit of pitching behind the stronger defense, but he is going to ask a lot of it considering the San Diego Padres were one of the best in the league last season at limiting strikeouts.
This is a classic Over spot I love to play between two strikeout pitchers going against lineups that make a ton of contact.
Braves vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
It was a little bizarre to see Jurickson Profar strike out three times on Opening Day, but one game won’t deter me from backing him here in a very favorable spot.
The veteran has long been a master of contact, entering play on Friday with a 15.9% strikeout rate that flies six points under the league average. As we’ve covered above, you can reasonably expect to do some damage against Cease if you can manage to get the ball back into play.
That’s what Profar has done in his three career plate appearances versus Cease, too, going 1-for-3 with an even-better .397 Expected Batting Average. No, I’m not basing this solely off of a minuscule sample like that, but that line would make plenty of sense given their contrasting styles.
I’m also going to go with Marcell Ozuna to draw another walk after he was issued two free passes on Thursday. He worked a deep count each time up as the Padres pitched him incredibly cautiously, and that’s what he’s earned with his resurgence in recent years.
Ozuna walked at a great 10.8% clip last year, and while he’s vulnerable to striking out versus Cease, the odds on him to draw a walk here — something he did in five of his last eight games last season — are too good to ignore.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Padres odds
Braves vs Padres live odds
Braves vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Atlanta -110 | San Diego -110
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 (-208) | San Diego -1.5 (+175)
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Braves vs Padres trend
The Braves have hit the F5 moneyline in 22 of their last 32 away games (+12.85 Units / 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Padres.
How to watch Braves vs Padres and game info
Location Petco Park, San Diego, CA Date Friday, 3-28-2025 First pitch 9:40 p.m. ET TV FDSN Southeast, SDPA Braves starting pitcher Reynaldo Lopez
(2024: 8-5, 1.99 ERA) Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease
(2024: 14-11, 3.47 ERA)
Braves vs Padres latest injuries
Braves vs Padres weather
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