The Mariners set a franchise record when they shutout the Pirates across all three games last weekend. That trio of wins was sorely needed and was a great highlight of how much the pitching staff has improved over the last few weeks. Through June 15, the day before Logan Gilbert was activated off the IL, the Mariners rotation had a 4.01 ERA, 18th in baseball. Since then, their ERA has dropped to 3.50, third best in that span behind the Phillies and Angels (?). With the All-Star break looming next week, these next six games against the Yankees and Tigers should be a good barometer for how the M’s stack up against some of the best clubs in the American League.

Mariners Yankees Mariners Yankees Game 1 Tuesday, July 8 | 4:05 pm RHP Logan Gilbert RHP Will Warren 47% 53% Game 2 Wednesday, July 9 | 4:05 pm RHP Logan Evans RHP Cam Schlittler 38% 62% Game 3 Thursday, July 10 | 4:05 pm RHP Bryan Woo RHP Marcus Stroman 51% 49%

Overview Yankees Mariners Edge Overview Yankees Mariners Edge Batting (wRC+) 121 (1st in AL) 111 (2nd in AL) Yankees Fielding (OAA) -6 (10th) -7 (11th) Yankees Starting Pitching (FIP-) 91 (3rd) 104 (8th) Yankees Bullpen (FIP-) 95 (7th) 105 (13th) Yankees

The Yankees are reeling after being swept by the Blue Jays last week and then losing their weekend series to the Mets. After leading the AL East for nearly the entire season, all of a sudden, they’re 3.5 games back and just a single game ahead of the Mariners in the Wild Card race. Last week was the culmination of a pretty poor month of play; over the last 30 calendar days, the Yankees have gone 11-18 and nothing has gone right for them. After averaging 5.5 runs per game through the first two months of the season, that mark dropped to 4.2 during this stretch. The pitching staff, which has been a strength of the club for the entire season, is suddenly dealing with a few key injuries — Clarke Schmidt was lost for the season with an elbow injury last week — and the bullpen has looked particularly shaky over the last few weeks. They’re still in a good position to make a strong playoff run, but the foundation that looked so strong in April and May suddenly has a ton of fractures that will need to be addressed sooner rather than later.

Player Position Bats PA K% BB% ISO wRC+ Player Position Bats PA K% BB% ISO wRC+ Trent Grisham CF L 300 23.3% 13.0% 0.219 135 Aaron Judge RF R 402 25.1% 16.2% 0.375 224 Cody Bellinger 1B L 351 14.8% 8.3% 0.196 122 Giancarlo Stanton DH R 62 29.0% 12.9% 0.093 86 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 3B L 247 27.9% 11.3% 0.255 136 Jasson Domínguez LF S 287 28.2% 10.8% 0.159 118 Anthony Volpe SS R 362 24.9% 9.4% 0.179 94 Austin Wells C L 271 24.4% 6.6% 0.228 100 DJ LeMahieu 2B R 142 24.6% 9.9% 0.070 96

The Yankees’ lineup obviously runs through Aaron Judge. The offense’s June swoon corresponded with a dip in Judge’s production — he posted a mere 156 wRC+ during that month, a 100 point dip from his otherworldly April and May. The real problem has been the drop off of guys like Paul Goldschmidt (150 wRC+ in April and May, 47 in June and July), Trent Grisham (147, 115), Ben Rice (141, 86), and Anthony Volpe (109, 66). Judge can only carry the lineup himself so far, he needs the guys around him on base ahead of him and hitting behind him to knock him in.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Will Warren 84.1 28.7% 10.5% 10.8% 43.0% 5.02 3.24 Logan Gilbert 50.1 36.8% 5.5% 19.5% 42.5% 3.40 2.99

Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Four-seam 38.8% 93.3 100 124 112 0.290 Sinker 20.4% 93.0 109 87 91 0.328 Changeup 12.5% 87.0 85 92 77 0.363 Curveball 6.6% 80.0 113 138 97 0.193 Sweeper 21.7% 82.7 105 101 78 0.329

Will Warren entered the season as the top pitching prospect in the Yankees system and parlayed a brilliant spring training into a spot in the opening day starting rotation. If you only look at his peripheral stats, you might think that he’s enjoyed a brilliant rookie campaign; his strikeout rate is an excellent 28.7%, and even though his walk rate is a little high at 10.5%, his FIP ranks 19th among all qualified starters. Then you look at his 5.02 ERA and things get a little confusing. His sinker-heavy profile betrays him a bit with runners on base — his .336 BABIP is a little high and his 66% LOB% is a little “unlucky.” His best pitch is a big sweeper that has the most horizontal movement in baseball and he’ll use his sinker and four-seamer to play off that big breaker.

Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Cam Schlittler (AA & AAA) 76.2 31.9% 8.4% 8.3% 47.8% 2.82 2.52 Logan Evans 45.2 17.4% 6.8% 13.2% 39.7% 2.96 4.62

Right behind Warren on the Yankees preseason prospect list is Cam Schlittler. A seventh-round pick in the 2022 draft, Schlittler has moved very quickly though New York’s minor league system on the back of a plus fastball. Standing 6’ 6”, his arm angle and height creates a very difficult look for batters and provides excellent natural ride for the pitch. He leaned on his heater to strikeout nearly 30% of the batters he faced last year and his strikeout rate is even higher this year. His secondary offerings are still works-in-progress with his two breaking balls — a sweeper and a curveball — more advanced than his changeup. He’ll be making his major league debut in Wednesday’s game.

Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Pitcher IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP Marcus Stroman 19.1 13.5% 11.2% 19.0% 50.0% 7.45 6.25 Bryan Woo 107.1 24.6% 4.5% 11.1% 39.3% 2.77 3.46

Marcus Stroman signed a two-year deal with the Yankees last year but limped through the worst season of his career in his first season in New York. His 4.62 FIP, 16.7% strikeout rate, and 49.2% groundball rate were all career worsts. It looked like he might have been the odd man out of the starting rotation this spring until Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil were injured. After preparing for a role out of the bullpen during spring training, he was suddenly thrust back into the rotation and made three poor starts in April. A knee injury derailed his season and he only returned from the IL a week and a half ago. At his best, he relied on a heavy sinker and a deep repertoire to generate elite groundball rates with a good enough strikeout-to-walk ratio allowing him to post ERAs in the mid-threes.

The Big Picture:

Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form Astros 55-36 0.604 — L-W-W-W-L Mariners 48-42 0.533 6.5 W-L-W-W-W Angels 44-46 0.489 10.5 W-L-L-L-W Rangers 44-47 0.484 11.0 W-L-W-L-L Athletics 37-55 0.402 18.5 W-L-W-L-L

Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form Yankees 49-41 0.544 +1.0 L-L-L-L-W Rays 49-42 0.538 +0.5 W-L-L-W-L Mariners 48-42 0.533 — W-L-W-W-W Red Sox 47-45 0.511 2.0 L-W-W-W-W

After sweeping the Dodgers last weekend, the Astros were finally defeated by the Guardians, who snapped a ten-game losing streak with a victory in Houston on Monday night. The Angels walked off the Rangers in the first game of a big four-game series yesterday. In the Wild Card race, the Rays have also fallen on hard times, losing three series in a row and losing the first game of a three-game series against the Tigers yesterday. Tampa Bay is just a half game ahead of the Mariners in the Wild Card standings.