The more things change, the more they stay the same.

On Sunday, the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors will dance once again in the playoffs. These two teams are familiar with each other, having faced off in the postseason four times within the last decade. Two duels in the Western Conference finals, one in the semifinal and one in the first round. Each matchup has come with fierce battles and unforgettable moments, embracing what the playoffs are all about.

A lot has changed since they last played each other in the postseason. Mike D’Antoni, James Harden and Chris Paul, the faces of the Rockets, are long gone in Houston. For the Warriors, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson have moved on as well. But there are still similarities. The Rockets have seen success off the backs of a versatile, physical defense and have unwavering self-belief. The Warriors are still spearheaded by head coach Steve Kerr and are anchored by Stephen Curry and Draymond Green.

Both fan bases are passionate. Both teams are confident.

To break down this matchup, Rockets writer Kelly Iko and Warriors writer Anthony Slater got together to discuss the series from all angles — strengths, weaknesses, where the series could turn and predictions.

How did they get to this point? How would you summarize the regular season?

Slater: In twisted segments. The Warriors scorched out to a 12-3 start after an undefeated preseason that had many prematurely declaring them stealth title contenders. They weren’t. Their flaws would soon be exposed. De’Anthony Melton tore his ACL, an under-the-radar injury with a big rotational impact. Players struggled to gain a rhythm in Steve Kerr’s overcrowded rotation. Nagging injuries slowed Curry and Green. Jonathan Kuminga badly sprained his ankle. They flipped Melton for Dennis Schröder. That didn’t work. For two months, they were one of the worst teams in the NBA. Then they made the desperate trade for Jimmy Butler at the deadline and everything changed. They finished 22-7, surged up the standings and — as we’ve seen — look like a dangerous seventh seed considering the playoff pedigree of Curry, Butler and Green together.

Iko: Defense.

Fresh off an impressive 41-win season, the Rockets were hit with a cold dose of reality to start the 2024-25 campaign, losing two of their first three games to mediocre opponents — including a shocking home-opening defeat to the Charlotte Hornets. For a team that held high expectations and demanded a postseason appearance, the bad habits on display were potentially more harmful than losses and needed course correction.

After recalibrating their focus with the help of some old-school brazenness from head coach Ime Udoka, Houston began their ascent up the Western Conference standings going 18-9 over the final two months of the calendar year. Jabari Smith Jr. fractured his left hand in early January, depriving the Rockets of one of their most versatile forwards — but paved the way for Amen Thompson’s grand entrance. Thompson, who had already been one of the more effective two-way reserves, grabbed the starting opportunity and has held onto it since, building a case for Defensive Player of the Year along the way.

The Rockets’ inconsistency was a year-round theme; 11 losses out of 16 games between February and early March once again reminded them of the rigors of the regular season. But a 15-5 finish, with some key wins over playoff opponents, earned them the No. 2 seed. Houston leaned on its top-three defense all season long, and that won’t change in the first round.

What needs to happen to advance?

Slater: They need their role players to hit 3s. Not a novel concept in the modern NBA. It’s a massive swing factor for every playoff team. But that’ll be particularly important for the Warriors, considering how Udoka will presumably deploy his young, long, active, physical defense to crowd and bump and swarm Curry, content on forcing the others to beat them. If you told me the combined 3-point percentage from Brandin Podziemski and Moses Moody in this series, I could probably predict the winner. Podziemski’s been hot since early March (mid-40 percent on high volume). Moody has been cold lately. But future seven-game samples are impossible to forecast.

Iko: Houston needs to control the tempo and possession game. Other factors will come into play — how long the Rockets’ defenders can stay on the floor and out of foul trouble, keeping Curry within reasonable limits — but the playoffs have always been about maximizing possessions. The Rockets are the league’s best offensive rebounding team but Golden State ranks fifth, so it’s not a clear advantage for Houston. Seeing as both teams generally struggle with shot making, this series boils down to which team can hold onto the ball longer.

You could argue that both teams’ style of play is somewhat suited to the postseason, finishing 17th and 18th in pace despite the elite athletes on Houston’s side. The Warriors are too astute a defensive group to allow the Rockets to bury them by transition. With that being said, I’m interested to see how and when Udoka trots out his double-big lineups and how that translates to creating extra chances.

What should they be most worried about?

Slater: The wave of powerful athletes Houston is about to throw at them. The Warriors are an older, tinier team. Their three best players are 37, 35 and 35. Butler, at 6-foot-7, is the tallest player in their starting lineup. Draymond Green, their starting center, is just pushing past 6-foot-6. Their most explosive wing, Kuminga, is currently out of the rotation because of fit issues. This is a veteran, savvy, ferociously competitive group led by a trio of playoff legends who will generate their own chaos and problems for the Rockets to solve. But Houston has a diverse set of defenders (Amen Thompson, Dillon Brooks, Fred VanVleet, Tari Eason) to throw at Curry and a coach who’ll do his best to ensure the game is allowed to be played in a physical environment that suits his strategy.

Iko: Playoff Jimmy.

It’s one thing to account for Curry — the Rockets were able to neutralize him in their last meeting, but consider that an anomaly — but just as we’ve seen over the last few years, there’s no answer for a locked-in Butler. Not only is he able to put pressure on defenders, whether it’s by muscling his way into the teeth of the defense and drawing contact, but as he showed in the Play-In Tournament, Butler is a dependable playmaker as well.

I expect Dillon Brooks to draw the bulk of Butler’s minutes, but this has to be a collective effort. The Warriors launch the second-most 3s in the league (and are fourth in makes), so it’s imperative that they don’t channel all of their energy on bothering Curry, as tempting as it may be. Butler has had his fair share of playoff battles and understands this time of the year arguably better than anyone. Houston’s youth does not.

Who or what is the X-factor?

Slater: Draymond Green defending Alperen Şengün in the post. There’s a reason Green started roaring at Şengün in their last matchup. He was trying to charge up his sleepy team and home arena but also see if he could spook the bigger Şengün. He admitted part of his tactic postgame was because “I already give up six inches and 50 pounds.” The Rockets will do their best to screen Green off of Şengün and let him attack softer matchups. Green will do his best to stay in the mix. They’ll surely get their fair share of one-on-one clashes. Green’s ability or inability to make Şengün relatively inefficient feels like the swing factor on how well the Warriors can bottle up Houston’s offense.

Iko: Houston’s switching versus Golden State’s ball and player movement.

The Rockets have been one of the league’s most impactful defenses all season long, but their ineffectiveness on switches is probably their best-kept secret. And it’s been difficult to pinpoint the reason why.

According to Synergy, Houston ranked 10th in switches on ballhandlers, but allowed opponents to score 0.987 points per possession — ranking 26th in the NBA. It’s even worse when the opposing ballhandler decides to launch a 3 after a Rockets switch, allowing 1.168 points per chance. That’s a dangerous formula against a team featuring two offensive hubs in Curry and Butler that thrive in mismatch hunting. Houston’s counter to that is toggling multiple defenders — Udoka mentioned this week that he specifically prepared his team to guard different personnel — but don’t expect a seamless approach.

Who wins the series and why? 

Slater: I have zero level of confidence either way. I’ll say Warriors in seven mostly because I’ve watched more than a decade of playoff series’ involving Curry, Green and Kerr — including a handful of must-have road wins in Houston — and learned it’s typically wise to believe they’ll solve the riddle. But I would not be stunned if the Rockets overwhelmed them with force.

Iko: I’ve gone back and forth about this for days, but I’ll say Rockets in six for now. I’m sure a good chunk of Houston’s fan base has emotional scars over the damage the Warriors have inflicted during the past decade, but this is a different team. As long as they’re able to keep their home-court advantage — especially in Games 1 and 2 — I think they have enough physical force to get them through a series. Should be a good one.

(Top photo of the Rockets’ Dillon Brooks and Warriors’ Steph Curry: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)