The women’s NCAA Tournament 28-game feast across Friday and Saturday is one of the most highly anticipated TV stretches of the sports year. You should watch as many games as you can, but if you need to prioritize, here are the “can’t-miss” ones to watch, informed by predictions and projections from The Athletic’s Chantel Jennings, Sabreena Merchant, Ben Pickman and Mark Schindler. Games are listed chronologically within each section and all game times are listed in ET.
Best Games
(5) Kansas State vs. (12) Fairfield
2:30 p.m. Friday, ESPN News
Like offense? Then keep a close eye on this No. 5 versus No. 12 matchup in the Spokane 4 Region. The Wildcats score 113.4 points per 100 possessions, the sixth-best mark in the NCAA. Meanwhile, Fairfield is 10th in NET rating. The Stags are fourth nationally in 2-point field-goal percentage and shoot tons of 3-pointers. Fairfield has emerged as a power in the midmajor conferences but is hungry for its first NCAA Tournament victory in school history. – Ben Pickman
(8) Richmond vs. (9) Georgia Tech
7: 30 p.m. Friday, ESPN News
Another offensive dream. Both teams rank in the top 20 nationally in offensive rating but do so in dramatically different ways. Richmond relies on layups and 3s, while Georgia Tech thrives in the midrange, and the Yellow Jackets make up for their low volume of free throws and triples by never turning over the ball. They neutralize each other’s strengths. The Spiders allow a lot of 3s, but Georgia Tech doesn’t take them. Richmond doesn’t foul, but the Yellow Jackets don’t usually get to the line anyway. It should come down to who makes more jump shots, which should be a blast. – Sabreena Merchant
(5) Tennessee vs. (12) South Florida
8 p.m. Friday, ESPN
This will be a great first-round matchup if for nothing else than the contrasting styles. Does that make it the best? Not sure. But it certainly makes it interesting. The Lady Vols run a high-tempo, chaotic, heavy subbing system that thrives on its pace disrupting opponents (80 possessions per game). But USF loves to slow it down and has averaged just 66 points a game this season en route to the American Conference tournament title. This will be UT coach Kim Caldwell’s second NCAA Tournament game, while USF coach Jose Fernandez will make his 13th appearance with the Bulls. – Chantel Jennings
Upset Specials
(4) Ohio State vs. (13) Montana State
5:30 p.m. Friday, ESPN2
Montana State isn’t your typical mid-major. Only four players are listed shorter than 6 feet. Though the Bobcats’ press is key, they’re no slouch defending in the halfcourt either, using a lot of switching to contain the ball, which is not all that dissimilar from what you might see watching the WNBA. – Mark Schindler
(This game is ranked the No. 2 most likely first-round upset by The Athletic’s Bracket Breaker research analysts.)
(3) Oklahoma vs. 14 Florida Gulf Coast
2:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPNU
Florida Gulf Coast is a trendy upset pick every season thanks to its unique style of play, one that has been maintained even after coach Karl Smesko left for the Atlanta Dream. The Eagles take the most valuable shots and deny opponents free throws and 3s. They won their first-round games in 2022 and 2023 and lost in 2024 by three points. If a No. 14 seed was ever to win an NCAA Tournament game (with Oregon State also earning a No. 14 seed in its first season as a midmajor), this is the year. – Sabreena Merchant
(7) Oklahoma State vs. (10) South Dakota State
3:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN2
Boasting the nation’s 10th-best offensive rating, per Basketball Reference, South Dakota State is lethal with a top-notch post player, Brooklyn Meyer. She excels as a scorer and facilitator on the block, and the team is creative in getting her touches. Almost every player in the rotation can shoot the ball at a high level, with three players in the top five of minutes played while shooting over 40 percent from deep during conference play. They move the ball, take care of it and don’t often waste second-chance opportunities or extra possessions. – Mark Schindler
(7) Michigan State vs. (10) Harvard
4:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN News
Looking for a double-digit seed who could advance to the Sweet 16? The Crimson could be that team. Harvard has one of the best defenses in the country, allowing only 80.1 points per 100 possessions. They force nearly 11 steals per game and average 22.6 points off turnovers per contest, the 12th-most nationally. Add in the fact that the Crimson don’t turn over the ball often and feature one of the most dynamic scorers in the country in senior guard Harmoni Turner, and Harvard looks like a potential second weekend participant. – Ben Pickman
(6) Florida State vs. (11) George Mason
7:45 p.m. Saturday, ESPN2
Ranked the No. 1 most likely first-round upset by The Athletic’s Bracket Breaker research analysts.
(Photo: Johnnie Izquierdo / Getty Images)
