INDEPENDENCE, Ohio — One could make the case that this is, on paper, the most lopsided matchup heading into a first-round series in NBA playoff history.
In one corner, the Cleveland Cavaliers stormed out to 15 wins in their first 15 games and never really looked back, capturing the East’s No. 1 seed and, along the way, becoming just the second team in history to produce three separate winning streaks of at least 12 games. Almost as an aside, Cleveland also featured three All-Stars, the NBA’s top-rated and highest-scoring offense, best team 3-point shooting percentage, and the ninth-rated defense. Pretty good.
And in the other corner, there is the Miami Heat, who won just 37 games and, in fact, are headed into Game 1 at 7 p.m. (ET) Sunday (TNT) at Cleveland’s Rocket Arena as the first team in history to make the playoffs after finishing 10th in the regular season. Since the creation of the Play-In Tournament in 2020, no No. 10 seed has won the required two games it takes for a team seeded that low to reach the playoffs.
But Miami is no ordinary Play-In team. Or, perhaps, a better way to say it is no NBA franchise is better at this — stinking enough in the regular season to have to endure the Play-In Tournament, only to advance out of it — than the Heat. For three years running now, Miami advanced to the playoffs through the Play-In, as an eight seed, no less, after defeating the Atlanta Hawks 123-114 in overtime on Friday. Just two seasons ago, Miami went from No. 8 to being up 1-0 in the NBA Finals.
The Cavs are heavily favored in this series, and they should be, for all of the evidence listed above, and also because only six times in league history has a No. 8 seed knocked off a No. 1 seed in a playoff series. Of course, the last organization to pull it off was Miami, and the coach and culture are still there, even if “Playoff Jimmy” Butler isn’t.
“In my mind, they aren’t a 10-seed,” Cavs coach Kenny Atkinson said Saturday.
“They’re a little bit of a 10-seed because of their circumstances,” Atkinson continued. “They’re much, much better than a 10-seed. I was just talking to Donovan (Mitchell), like, you have to welcome that, right? It’s going to be a heck of a challenge and a heck of a series, and whatever happens we’re going to get better — whether it’s for a series down the road, (the) future, all of it.”
The Heat still have Bam Adebayo, who has played in two NBA Finals and won two Olympic gold medals. Tyler Herro has been with Miami for years and is its leading scorer now, and Duncan Robinson remains a contributing role player. They are coached by Erik Spoelstra, the second-longest tenured coach behind Gregg Popovich, who has led Miami to 14 playoff berths, two titles, and five finals appearances in 17 seasons.
The predominant theory for why Miami is where it is in the playoff bracket is what Butler did to them. His standoff with, first, Spoelstra’s coaching staff over a new role in the offense, and then the Heat front office that led to him being away from the team, on suspension, for large swaths of time, followed by an eventual trade to Golden State, was the ultimate disruptor. Miami went 12-20 after the trade, which brought Andrew Wiggins to the Heat, and endured a 10-game losing streak in March.
Beyond the Butler saga, and perhaps related to it, the Heat blew 15 leads in fourth quarters of games they ultimately lost. They cruised to victory over No. 9 Chicago in the first Play-In game, and blew another lead Friday to No. 8 Atlanta, but survived to advance by winning in overtime. Herro averaged 34 points in the Play-In tournament after posting a career-best 23.9 points per game during the regular season.
So, between a massive, season-long disturbance to their collective force, plus some late-game mishaps that could have gone another way or at least are correctable moving forward, one could make the case supporting Atkinson’s belief that the Heat are not nearly as bad as their record and standing indicate.
“They’re known for their culture,” Mitchell said. “Just because they’re a 10-seed, that doesn’t mean anything with them. You saw that in their two (Play-In) games. So, for us, we’ve got to do what we do, understand it’s going to be a physical series. They have great guys and a great coach.”
The Cavs are leaning into the No. 1 seed they earned. Players were thrilled to hear that Atkinson was named by his peers (this is different than the official, league-sponsored, media-voted awards announced in the coming weeks) as coach of the year Saturday. Mitchell has been in the playoffs in each of his eight NBA seasons, and only six players (Michael Jordan, Luka Dončić, Allen Iverson, Kevin Durant, Jerry West and LeBron James) have higher playoff scoring averages than Mitchell’s 28.1 points per postseason game.
Additionally, Evan Mobley enjoyed the best regular season of his career, Darius Garland had a renaissance for which he credited Atkinson on Saturday, and a deep team was made even deeper when Cleveland acquired De’Andre Hunter as a big, physical defensive wing who can shoot 3s off of Atkinson’s bench. Hunter and Ty Jerome, the Cavs’ reserve point guard, are both candidates to be the NBA’s top sixth man.
“Who wouldn’t want this,” Mitchell suggested rhetorically when he was asked if there was pressure to win in the playoffs after a 64-win regular season. “This is what makes what we do fun. … So, yeah, there’s pressure, but I don’t know what else to say. I’m excited.”
The Cavs are a group that has successfully rebuilt in the wake of the LeBron James era. This year’s team is the best non-LeBron Cavs team in franchise history. Two years ago, Cleveland lost in the first round and last year advanced to a conference semifinal; anything short of a conference finals berth this spring would be considered a disappointment, given the regular season the Cavs just enjoyed.
Then again, despite his gaudy stats and general playoff experience, Mitchell has never made it past the second round. So there is much he and his teammates have to prove, and they’ll arrive at the proving ground Sunday night at Rocket Arena, with the battle-tested, historically relevant Heat serving as the first test.
“We haven’t done anything yet,” Mitchell said. “Ultimately, there’s two months of work and you gotta go out there and do what you have to do to take care of business.”
(Photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
