Happy Derby Day! At 8:00 p.m. tonight at Truist Park in Cobb County, Georgia, some of the largest human beings Major League Baseball has to offer will be hitting some of the longest home runs imaginable, and we get to watch. The cool kids will be tuned into the Statcast broadcast on ESPN 2, hosted by Kevin Brown (the current Orioles play-by-play man, not the former Orioles pitcher), Jessica Mendoza, and erstwhile FanGraphs contributor Mike Petriello. Petriello told me that he spent Friday crunching first-half stats and Derby results from 2016 to 2024 in order to create a prediction model, so if you want to see a baseball nerd being baseball nerdy on national television, make sure you catch the opening.
Although we never get to see all the stars we’d like in the Derby, this year may feel particularly bereft. We are missing out on A-listers like Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, and Derby legends like Pete Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. We’re also going to be without most of the most prolific home run hitters of the season. Cal Raleigh and James Wood are the only participants who rank within the top nine in home runs. Only half the Derby contestants are even in the top 30. We have no repeat participants from the 2024 season. In fact, Matt Olson is the only one who has ever participated in the Derby before, and he lost in the first round in 2021. On the other hand, Raleigh leads the majors in home runs, and based purely on how far and hard these eight sluggers hit the ball, we may well have the most powerful field ever assembled.
If there’s a record to watch out for tonight, it’s the one for the longest home run ever hit in a Derby. In Oneil Cruz, we’ve got the player with the fastest bat speed and the highest exit velocity ever recorded. Although he’s just 22, Junior Caminero’s bat speed trails only Cruz’s, and Wood and Byron Buxton also possess some of the most explosive power in the game. The current Derby record is 520 feet, set by Juan Soto at Coors Field in 2021, and the only thing keeping it safe tonight might be that Truist Park wasn’t built on top of a mountain. The longest non-Colorado homer belongs to Aaron Judge, who blasted one 513 feet in Miami in 2017.
Lefties should also have a real advantage, as Truist Park is a full 10 feet shorter down the line in right field than in left. According to Statcast’s park factors, the home run factor is 106 for lefties and 98 for righties.
The Rules
For once the rules don’t seem to be changing. They’re the same as last year, but worry not; we’ll do a refresher because they’re still very, very complicated. The first round is an open competition, with all eight participants trying to hit as many homers as possible and the top four moving on. Those four are seeded by their first-round totals and put into a head-to-head bracket.
Each round has both a time and a pitch limit, so the round is over whenever one of those limits expires. Batters get three minutes or 40 pitches in the first round, and two minutes or 27 pitches in the semifinals and finals. Last year, that produced just the right amount of urgency. Players were pretty evenly split; about half ended their first round with a few seconds left on the clock, and about half ended their first round because time ran out with a few pitches left. However, it’s worth emphasizing the limit is on pitches rather than swings, so pitcher quality is very important.
In each round, every player also gets an untimed bonus period. They can rack up home runs until they make three outs, and if they hit a homer of at least 425 feet within the bonus round, they get a fourth out. Each player gets a 45-second timeout in each round, but it can’t be called during the bonus period or tiebreakers.
If there’s a tie in the first round, the player who hits the longest homer advances. If there’s a tie in the semis or finals, the players face off in a 60-second swing-off. If they’re still tied after the swing-off, they do swing-offs of just three swings each until a winner emerges.
With that, let’s get into the participants, sorted below by the order in which they will bat tonight.
2025 Home Run Derby Power Profiles
Name HR HH% Bat Speed EV EV90 maxEV LA HR/FB Barrel% Avg HR Distance AVG FB Distance James Wood 24 56% 76.1 93.6 111.8 117.9 6.1 32% 19% 411 343 Brent Rooker 20 48% 73.8 91.6 106.7 112.4 14.7 18% 15% 400 335 Junior Caminero 23 47% 78.0 91.0 109.1 116.5 9.9 22% 11% 390 326 Oneil Cruz 16 58% 78.6 96.3 114.3 122.9 8.6 21% 22% 409 338 Byron Buxton 21 55% 75.0 92.1 107.6 112.5 17.9 21% 16% 410 332 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 17 44% 73.3 89.3 105.6 110.9 17.0 20% 19% 386 327 Cal Raleigh 38 49% 75.1 91.8 106.9 115.2 24.8 27% 20% 386 329 Matt Olson 17 54% 73.6 93.8 108.3 113.8 14.7 16% 17% 394 342
James Wood
At just 22, Wood is one of two players in this year’s field with the chance to become the youngest Derby winner ever, a feat currently held by Juan Gonzalez, who was 23 when he won it in 1993. The 6-foot-7 Wood ranks fourth in baseball and leads the field with 10 batted balls that traveled at least 425 feet this season. He could absolutely obliterate the field, spraying line drive home runs in every direction in all three rounds. But it seems equally likely that he could flame out in the first round, failing to hit balls high enough to get over the fence.
He just doesn’t lift the ball, at all. His launch angle is the sixth lowest among all qualified players and his groundball rate is the ninth highest. Wood also runs one of the lowest pull rates in the game. That might not do him any favors in Atlanta, but then again, he hits the ball so hard that it tends not to matter. He’s running a 152 wRC+ and his 24 home runs rank second in the field, because whenever he does manage to elevate the ball, he’s unstoppable. He leads the field in average home run distance and average fly ball distance, and his 32.4% HR/FB rate is the highest in the game. He may well put up one of the best pure displays of power we’ll ever see.
More encouraging, MLB.com has some footage of a timed practice session Wood and Nationals third base coach Ricky Gutierrez took the weekend before last. Only three homers were shown in the video, but none of them went to the opposite field.
Brent Rooker
Rooker will be the first Athletics representative in the Derby since some guy named Matt Olson in 2021. He’s on pace for his third straight 30-homer season. Since joining the A’s ahead of the 2023 season, he’s been one of the best hitters in the game, running a 143 wRC+, launching 89 home runs and putting up 9.4 WAR. He’s also coming in hot. His 172 wRC+ in July trails only Buxton’s 175 mark. Rooker ranks in the middle of the Derby field in just about every category except for the ones that indicate true top-end power. His max and 90th percentile exit velocity both rank seventh out of eight. As a right-handed hitter whose power is closer to good than great, Rooker may be at a disadvantage due to Atlanta’s lefty-friendly dimensions.
Joe Caruso, Rooker’s childhood hitting coach, will be pitching to him tonight, and the two ran through a timed practice session in Sacramento before Saturday’s game. “I’m tired,” Rooker told reporters, before going out and hitting a homer and a double during the game.
Junior Caminero
Caminero became an All-Star in place of Alex Bregman, then became the AL starter at third base in place of José Ramírez, but make no mistake about it, he’s a phenom. He only turned 22 last week, so he joins Wood as the other player tonight who could dethrone Juan Gone as the youngest to ever win a Derby. Caminero ranks third in the field with 23 home runs in just his first full season as a big leaguer, so who are we to put any kind of ceiling on his potential. However, he hits the ball on the ground a lot. His average fly ball travels just 326 feet, the shortest average distance of anyone in the Derby. He’s got the lowest barrel rate in the field and the second-lowest average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Mishits and groundouts are not your friend in the Derby.
The argument for Caminero is pretty simple. When he hits the ball hard, he hits it awfully hard. His average bat speed of 78 mph is the second highest both in the field and in all of baseball, behind Cruz. That’s right, he swings harder than Wood and Judge. His 90th percentile exit velocity ranks third among Derby contestants. Caminero is also taking things seriously. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported that Caminero has taken three timed practice sessions in recent days and sought advice from 2024 winner Teoscar Hernández. His pitcher, Tomas Francisco, throws to him all the time and pitched to Randy Arozarena in the 2023 Derby. If Caminero can be at all consistent tonight, he should at least have a chance. Maybe we should just trust those 23 home runs.
Oneil Cruz
Cruz has to be a favorite in this competition, which is weird because with a 102 wRC+ and a .212 batting average, he’s the worst hitter in the field. He’s hit the fewest home runs and his slugging percentage is the lowest. He’s just not having a great season at the plate, and he’s only hit one home run this month. He’s tied for 42nd in homers this season, and he has the second-lowest average launch angle of the participants. He also left Saturday’s game early after feeling some hip flexor discomfort and only made it into Sunday’s game as a pinch-hitter. He apparently got talked into participating in the first place because his wife and kids wanted to see him in the game.
All the same, Cruz has to be a favorite because nobody can hit the ball harder than him. He ripped a 122.9-mph homer in Milwaukee in May, the hardest-hit ball ever recorded; he also owns the second- and sixth-hardest batted balls. This season, he’s hit six of the top 10. He leads the world in bat speed and hard-hit rate, along with all three brands of exit velocity by a significant gap. When it comes to making hard contact, there’s Cruz, then there’s everyone else. He could smack a home run with a pool cue. Heck, he could whack a home run with a pool noodle. How could you count him out?
Cruz mentioned last week that he had reached out to Julio Rodríguez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for advice, and that he would be starting some practice sessions.
Byron Buxton
I don’t want to jinx anything, but it finally seems that Buxton is getting the season he so richly deserves. He has been one of the most talented all-around players in the game since his debut in 2015, but time and time again, injuries have derailed what should by all rights have been a storybook career. As a result, this is just his second All-Star nod, and with 21 home runs, he’s already just seven away from the career high he set over just 92 games in 2022. Buxton grew up in Baxley, Georgia, just under 200 miles from Atlanta, which makes it feel like the universe is finally ready to make things right.
Although he dealt with a sore hand recently, Buxton comes into the Derby absurdly hot, hitting for the cycle on his bobblehead day on Friday and running a wRC+ of 350 over his last six games. He ranks seventh in baseball and is tied with Cruz with six batted balls that traveled at least 425 feet this season. His average home run distance of 410 feet is second only to Wood. More to the point, he’s the kind of all-around athlete who’s so preternaturally gifted that nothing he does would surprise you. I pulled 23 different batting metrics in order to compare the entire field. Although Buxton only led in one – batting average – he was the only player who didn’t rank worse than sixth in any category. He’s neither one of the most powerful or prolific home run hitters in the field, but he’s got enough power that he can hit the ball out at will, and he’s sure to earn that extra bonus out every chance he gets. Buxton has been practicing with his pitcher, Twins third base coach Tommy Watkins, and mentioned that he’s talked to 2008 winner Justin Morneau about the Derby.
One more fun thing to keep an eye out for: Buxton mentioned that his oldest son Brixton is excited about the Derby mainly because he wants to be the one to deliver the towel to his dad during timeouts.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
At first blush, Chisholm may look like the odd man out in this group. Standing at a relatively slight 5-foot-11, he still looks every bit the middle infielder he was when he broke into the league in 2020. He’s never hit more than 24 home runs in a season, and with 17 homers in 2025, he’s tied with Olson for the second fewest in the field. He ranks last in the field in terms of just about every contact quality metric: hard-hit rate, as well as average, max, and 90th percentile exit velocity. He just doesn’t hit the ball as hard as the other guys. He’s only launched two balls at least 425 feet this season.
Compounding those concerns, Chisholm has made it clear that he’s not taking the Derby too seriously, vowing to give it 70% as he has all season long. He’s not planning any special preparations, and his stepfather, Geron Sands, will be pitching to him. To be fair, Sands has pitched to Chisholm in previous offseason derbies, but he’s still the only pitcher who isn’t a professional coach.
Here’s the thing: Chisholm finds a way to hit home runs anyway. He’s only gotten into 64 games this season due to an April oblique strain, so when looking at his home run rate on a per-game and per-PA basis, he ranks third among Derby contestants. His barrel rate and isolated slugging are also third. Perhaps most importantly, 10.6% of Chisholm’s balls in play have gone for home runs this season, which ranks 10th among all players with at least 100 balls in play, behind only Raleigh in the field. Nobody strikes out in the Derby. Nobody has to worry about curveballs. All they’re seeing are meatballs, and Chisholm is great at converting his batted balls into homers. The Derby is about power, but it’s also about efficiency. Maybe that could be enough. Maybe giving it 70%, and maybe not being a huge guy who takes huge hacks could give him a bit more stamina.
Cal Raleigh
No player could use a break more than Raleigh, but here he is, starting the All-Star Game and participating in the Derby. Raleigh has 6.2 WAR and a 178 wRC+. As a catcher! At the All-Star break! He trails only Judge in both categories. He’s on pace for more than 10 WAR, which would constitute the greatest catcher season of all-time. He’s already just 10 home runs away from the single-season catcher record. This is also as close as it gets to a home game for the North Carolina native. Maybe we should just bow to fate and acknowledge that this is Cal Raleigh’s year.
Raleigh ranks in the bottom half of the field in terms of contact quality. His average home run travels just 386 feet, tied with Chisholm for last place. A switch-hitter, Raleigh has also been significantly better batting from the right side than the left side this season. But he boasts the highest launch angle of the contestants, and he’s mastered the art of lifting and pulling the ball from either side of the plate. As I wrote a month ago, all he does is hit homers. Raleigh has five hits this month. All of them are home runs. His last hit in June? Also a home run. So far this season, 15.5% of his batted balls have been home runs, the highest rate in baseball. Raleigh has sought advice from teammates Arozarena and Rodríguez, both of whom have participated in the Derby.
Raleigh’s father Todd will be pitching to him, but don’t let that worry you. The elder Raleigh is a baseball lifer who caught at Western Carolina University, signed with the Red Sox, then spent decades working his way up the college coaching ranks, serving as head coach at both Western Carolina and Tennessee. He’s thrown plenty of BP in his day, and the two have already held at least one timed practice session. Worryingly, Raleigh notched just 12 homers. Turns out, this is full-on family affair for the Raleighs, as Cal’s 15-year-old brother, Todd Jr., is suiting up tonight as his Derby catcher.
Matt Olson
Olson tagged in on Friday as a replacement for teammate Ronald Acuña Jr. He’s got Derby experience. He’s got home field advantage. In fact, as an Atlanta native, he was even in the stands for the 2000 Derby at Turner Field, and the crowd will undoubtedly be going crazy for him tonight. And although he doesn’t possess the top-of-the-scale raw power of Cruz, Wood, or Caminero, Olson is still a pure slugger with power to spare. His average fly ball travels 342 feet, second only to Wood. He led the majors with 54 homers in 2023, and he leads the field with 276 career home runs. He’s a lefty in his lefty-friendly home park who has specialized in hitting home runs for years. If you’re looking for a player with a track record for sending the ball out of the ballpark, and particularly this ballpark, Olson is your guy. He’s not the sexiest pick in the field, but Olson is a serious dark horse contender here.
Who’s Going to Win?
I checked in with Jay Jaffe, who wrote this preview in previous years and who did a great job of picking winners. Jay chose Buxton. It’s a similar move to the one I made when I picked Bobby Witt Jr. last year; Jay picked the super-athlete who can do anything on a baseball field. For that reason, I’m going in the opposite direction and taking Wood. He’s a high-risk pick. He definitely doesn’t have an ideal swing for the Derby, and he’s struggled of late, with a .103 batting average in his eight games since announcing that he’d participate. But as we’ve seen all year, he doesn’t have to do everything perfectly to hit a home run. He’s got a good eye and light-tower power, which should help him out in the bonus round. If he gets in a groove, watch out.
