So far, the CONCACAF Gold Cup has been a battle between the powerhouse and the dark horse. Most would have expected the United States, a seven-time champion, and Mexico, a nine-time champion, to be here. Guatemala and Honduras weren’t among the pre-tournament favorites, though; Guatemala has won once, but it was in a 1967 tournament in which the United States did not participate, and Honduras last won in 1981, again without American participation.
I’ve already broken down the USA-Guatemala semifinal, so now I’ll take a deeper dive into Mexico’s meeting with Honduras, which will start at 10 p.m. ET at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.
Mexico is a -285 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Honduras at +850 and a draw at +400. El Tri are -700 to advance to Sunday’s final, with the Central American nation at +850.
Perhaps no country has exemplified the phrase “it’s not how you start; it’s how you finish” better than Honduras this tournament. Ranked 75th in the FIFA World Rankings, it got absolutely throttled by Canada, 6-0, in its opening match, denting its hopes of making it through. But Los Catrachos fought back, picking up wins over El Salvador and Curaçao to advance out of the group before taking down Panamá — the fourth-best CONCACAF team in the world rankings — on penalties in the quarterfinals.
Mexico, meanwhile, has looked like the strongest team in the competition, taking seven points from the group stage matches and being the only squad not to need extra time to win in the quarterfinals. El Tri did draw against Costa Rica in the final group stage clash, but it dominated the match and topped the group on goal difference regardless. Saudi Arabia, participating in the Gold Cup by special invitation, has a strong side and a talent-laden domestic league, but Mexico breezed through, controlling 60% of the possession and uncorking 14 shots to Al-Suqour Al-Khodhur’s one.
El Tri is the most valuable squad in the competition by market value, as AC Milan’s Santiago Giménez opted to play in the tournament, unlike his American teammate, Christian Pulisic. Giménez has played somewhat sparingly, appearing in each match but starting only one and being on the pitch for just 152 total minutes, but he’s already made an impact in that time, notching an assist. As Mexico’s most talented player, he’ll surely be on for the rest of the tournament as long as he’s healthy. He and Raúl Jiménez, who plays domestically for Fulham, should form a devastating strike partnership if Javier Aguirre chooses to roll out the 4-2-2-2 he did in the team’s two pre-tournament friendlies.
It’s been an impressive run for Honduras, which looks likely to qualify for its fourth World Cup. Luis Palma has scored goals in the Champions League with Celtic in 2023-24 and will participate in Europe’s premier competition next season with Greek giants Olympiacos. Shot-stopper Edrick Menjívar had an outing to forget against Canada but has since saved nine of his 10 opportunities. Los Catrachos play a versatile 4-2-3-1 and have defended sharply since the bout against Canada. They’ll put up a fight, but I back Giménez and Jiménez to propel their side to a USA-Mexico final.
