After A24 released the first trailer for The Smashing Machine with Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, it didn’t take long for awards pundits and journalists to start speculating about its future as an Oscar player. Truth be told, Johnson has been considered a potential Best Actor nominee for months, with only a still photo of his transformation into UFC fighter Mark Kerr in his war chest.

However, now that The Smashing Machine trailer has arrived, it seems fair, even at this early stage in the calendar, with the movie still months from its debut, to wonder aloud whether Johnson could leap from popcorn star and beloved WWE wrestler to Academy Award nominee.

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If it happens, don’t act too surprised, especially since, on paper, The Smashing Machine has a lot in its favor. Based on the documentary of the same name, and written and directed by Benny Safdie (flying solo for the first time as a director without his brother, Josh Safdie), The Smashing Machine tells the true story of Kerr, a mixed martial artist and fighter who rose to fame in the early days of the UFC while also battling a significant drug addicition. To play Kerr, Johnson underwent a substantial physical transformation with the help of two-time Oscar-winning prosthetic makeup designer Kazu Hiro (Darkest Hour, Bombshell). 

“I look what I look like,” Johnson said in an interview with GQ last year. “I am what I am. There is no: ‘Oh, Rock is just gonna disappear.’ You know what I mean? However, to be able to do that in Smashing Machine, with the greatest of makeup artists — in a way, it was really freeing for me.”

“It was just funny because I remember him walking around and you’d hear people saying, ‘When’s The Rock going to get here? I wonder when he’s going to get here,’” Benny Safdie said of the transformation. “You’d hear all these people talking, and meanwhile he’s walking amongst them.”

The connection between the Oscar nominations for Best Hair and Makeup and acting is well-documented. Several times in recent years an eventual acting Oscar winner has carried the hair and makeup category as well, including Marion Cotillard (La vie en Rose), Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady), Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables), Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), and Emma Stone (Poor Things). Nominees in both categories since 2008 include The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (which won hair and makeup and was nominated in Best Actor for Brad Pitt), Foxcatcher (nominated for hair and makeup and acting bids for Steve Carell and Mark Ruffalo), The Revenant (nominated for hair and makeup and won Best Actor for Leonardo DiCaprio), Vice (which won hair and makeup and received three acting bids for Christian Bale, Sam Rockwell, and Amy Adams), Bombshell (which won hair and makeup and was nominated in the acting categories for Charlize Theron and Margot Robbie), Joker (which was nominated for hair and makeup and won Best Actor for Joaquin Phoenix), Judy (which was nominated for hair and makeup and won Best Actress for Renée Zellweger), Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (a winner for hair and makeup and acting nominee twice over for Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman), Mank (a hair and makeup nominee nominated in the acting categories for Oldman and Amanda Seyfried), Elvis (a hair and makeup nominee and Best Actor nominee for Austin Butler), Maestro (a hair and makeup nominee and acting nominee for Bradley Cooper and Carey Mulligan), Oppenheimer (a hair and makeup nominee, an acting winner for both Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. and a nominee for Emily Blunt), The Substance (a hair and makeup nominee and an acting nominee for Demi Moore), and Wicked (a hair and makeup nominee and an acting nominee for Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande).

“You really understand the fears, the love, the sadness, the happiness,” Safdie said of Johnson’s transformation. “If somebody’s open to doing that and talking about that stuff, then they’re going to be able to give a great performance. Because of how physically strong he is, I don’t know if a lot of people give him that opportunity.”

However, even beyond its potential bids in Best Actor and Best Hair and Makeup, Johnson and The Smashing Machine could hit a sweet spot with the Academy. Several times in recent years, actors portraying fighters — either boxers or wrestlers — have been nominated for Oscars, including winner Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby) and nominees Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher), Will Smith (Ali), and Denzel Washington (The Hurricane). Playing a real person is also proven to be appealing to the Academy, as evidenced by the multiple nominees and winners who have been recognized over the last two decades. Fourteen times in the previous 25 years, the Best Actor winner has triumphed by playing a real-life figure.

Even Johnson’s stature within the industry could become a feature, not a bug. Best known for playing action heroes in blockbuster titles like the Fast and Furious franchise and the Jumanji movies, Johnson could join a select list of actors primarily known for their box-office prowess as an unlikely Oscar nominee, including Moore, Smith, Sandra Bullock, and Julia Roberts (both of whom also won Oscars for playing real people). 

Regardless of the eventual awards outcome for Johnson and The Smashing Machine — and note that the movie doesn’t even come out until October, and its place as a contender largely depends on the response it gets during the fall — the movie does feel like a pivot point for Johnson. Recently, he was attached to a new film with Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio that has been compared to The Departed. He has also discussed reuniting with Safdie and A24 in the future.

“It’s such a psychological thing here,” Johnson said of The Smashing Machine last year. “But you know, from the moment I walk out of my house, I can’t hide. But in a way, when I could disappear in a movie like Smashing Machine, and some of the other things now that we’re developing, where it will allow me to disappear, with a Benny again or an A24. … Man, I love it.”

Now, we wait to see if the Academy does, too.

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