If the history between the Russian and the Australian is any guide, we’ll either see an epic, or a meltdown, or both when they take to Butch Buchholz Court on Friday afternoon.

In their first meeting, in Cincinnati in 2019, Kyrgios won the first set in a tiebreaker before becoming incensed by umpire Fergus Murphy, throwing a ball at his chair, and appearing to spit in his direction. It was a tirade that cost him more than $150,000. Not surprisingly, he also lost the match.

Their next two encounters, at the Australian Open in 2020 and the US Open in 2022, surely had their incidents, but they’re more memorable for being well-played five-set wars that went down to the wire. Kyrgios won 10-8 in a fifth-set tiebreaker in Melbourne; Khachanov won 6-4 in the fifth in New York.

Since then, Kyrgios has hardly played a match. He recorded his first win since 2022 over Mackenzie McDonald in Miami on Wednesday. But while he’s just 1-3 on the season, Khachanov hasn’t been a whole lot better. He’s 4-6 this year, and has only made it out of the second round once.

Which means that, while Khachanov is ranked 869 spots ahead of Kyrgios (23 to 892), this one should be competitive. Kyrgios has the better serve, but Khachanov has the more muscular baseline game. As it so often does with Kyrgios, the result will probably come down to his motivation and self-control. I’m going to guess that he’ll do what he needs to do to compete this time. Winner: Kyrgios