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If you’re wondering why Shedeur Sanders fell all the way down to the fifth round in the NFL Draft this year, you might just want to talk to Merrill Hoge. Before the draft started, the former Steelers running back broke down why he thought Sanders would eventually end up being an “epic failure” in the NFL if taken in the first round.
During an April 23 interview with 102.5 WDVE in Pittburgh, Hoge was asked to give his take on the Colorado quarterback, and he then explained why he doesn’t think Sanders’ game will translate very well to the NFL.
“I think the best way to sum him up is, he’s a really good college quarterback: His accuracy is good, his processing is good,” Hoge said. “And when I say good, I use a scale from 1 to 10, so good is around a five. So if you’re a five in college, okay? Those [accuracy and process] are the two most important aspects of transitioning to the National Football League and then you build from there. Anticipation, pocket awareness and then we start building, but those two things, if you’re a five, you’re not a first-rounder. You’re not a franchise guy.”
If NFL teams felt the same way as Hoge, it’s easy to see why Sanders ended up sliding.
Although Sanders led all FBS quarterbacks with a 74% completion rate, Hoge said that number is distorted because Sanders threw so many screens.
“Nobody threw more bubble screens than Shedeur Sanders when it mattered,” Hoge said.
During the 2024 season, Sanders had 168 passing attempts that were at or behind the line of scrimmage, which were tied for the most in the FBS. Those 168 passing attempts represented 35% of all his throws. Hoge said you have to look past the screens to figure out how Sanders’ play will translate to the NFL.
“In the college environment, it can be hard to translate a kid to where he’s going to play, so you have to look deeper into it, you have to find things that simulate the NFL,” Hoge said. “You’re not going to throw 50% of your bubble screens and survive in the NFL, you can do that in college — they’ll sit there [at Colorado] and say their offensive line was bad and so that’s why we did those type of things — but if your quarterback is good, you can run everything. You don’t just have to run a bubble screen.”
Hoge felt like the Buffaloes used so many screens in an effort to help Sanders.
“You’re going to protect the kid,” Hoge said. “I get that from a coaching aspect, you would do that.”
The former Steelers running back then pointed to several recent first-round quarterbacks like CJ Stroud, Jayden Daniels and Joe Burrow and said Sanders is nowhere near those guys in talent.
“That’s the skill set you’re looking for,” Hoge said. “He ain’t even close, he ain’t even in the ballpark. … There’s some toughness to him I like, but how he moves, he ain’t going to put fear in anybody.”
Hoge also didn’t like the fact that Sanders seemed to get worse as the 2024 season went on at Colorado, which included a 36-14 loss to BYU in the Alamo Bowl where Sanders had arguably his worst game of the season.
“He got worse as the year went on and then went in… the only guy I’ve seen have a worse bowl game than he did in my 30 years of doing his is Mitch Trubisky,” Hoge said.
Hoge then issued a warning to any team that might have been thinking about selecting Sanders in the first round.
“He can’t handle the expectations that are coming his way,” Hoge said. “He’s going to be an epic failure and he’s going set your organization back another two or three years.”
There will be a lot less pressure on Sanders now that he’s headed to Cleveland as a fifth-round pick, but that might not help him win the starting quarterback job. If his game doesn’t translate to the NFL, then he’s going to have a hard time beating out Joe Flacco or Kenny Pickett or even fellow rookie Dillon Gabriel for the QB job.
If you’re wondering why you should listen to Hoge, he predicted back in 2014 that Johnny Manziel would be a bust.
“I see bust written all over him,” Hoge said. “Especially if he’s drafted in the first round. … He has absolutely no instinct or feel for pocket awareness. He has an instinct to run. That’s a bad instinct if you’re going to have that in the National Football League.”
Hoge said the issue with Manziel was that his skill set simply wouldn’t work in the NFL, which is essentially his same issue with Sanders.
“His skill set does not transition to the National Football League and it’s a big, big risk (to take him),” Hoge said of Manziel.
Manziel ended up going to the Browns in the first round, but started only eight games in two seasons before flaming out of the NFL. The Browns will be hoping Sanders has a lot more success in Cleveland than Johnny Football.
