It’s been three days since the Pahalgam terror attack — when terrorists carrying AK-47s and American-made M4 carbine rifles swooped down on unsuspecting tourists in the Baisaran meadow in south Kashmir’s Pahalgam and killed them one after another, with the final toll at 26.

The attack, dubbed as one of the worst on civilians in India, has shocked and shaken the country. It has broken the hearts of many and families who lost their loved ones are in deep grieving.

But amid the grief and the anguish, the Indian government stood firm; Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in an address on Thursday (April 24), “I am telling the world that India will identify and punish every terrorist, and those behind them. We will pursue them to the ends of the world… India’s spirit will never be broken and terrorism will not go unpunished. Every effort will be made to ensure justice is done. The entire nation is firm in this resolve and everyone who believes in humanity is with us.”

“I want to say… in very clear words… that these terrorists and those who conspired towards this attack will get a punishment bigger than they can imagine…” Modi thundered.

And it appears that this isn’t just empty rhetoric. India is taking firm steps against Pakistan, for harbouring terrorists, prompting Islamabad to counter with its own tit-for-tat measures. This has ratcheted further tensions with global consequences — both nuclear-armed neighbours are moving closer to a military confrontation, with the world looking on with bated breath as to what comes next.

India turns the screws on Pakistan

A day after the Pahalgam terror attack occurred, the Modi administration held a high-level meet following which it announced a string of punitive measures against Pakistan, in response to what it said was Islamabad’s support of terrorist attacks inside India.

First, New Delhi suspended the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 with immediate effect. The government said it will remain suspended unless Pakistan credibly and irrevocably stops support for cross-border terrorism.

This is a very big deal for Pakistan, as waters is a lifeline for the country. In fact, Pakistani agriculture relies very heavily on the Indus system’s waters making the treaty crucial for the country. Pakistan has said any interference with water flow would be treated as “an act of war”.

New Delhi also shut down the integrated check post at Attari on Wednesday. It has also stated that it will no longer allow Pakistani nationals to travel to India under the Saarc Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) visas. SVES visas issued earlier to Pakistani nationals were cancelled. And all Pakistanis holding SVES visas were told to leave India in 48 hours.

India has also downgraded diplomatic ties with its neighbour — defence/military, naval and air advisors in the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi have been declared persona non grata, and given a week to leave the country. India also announced it would withdraw its defence staff from the Indian High Commission in Islamabad. Moreover, India will also bring down the overall strength of the High Commissions to 30 from the existing 55 through further reductions, to be done by May 1.

On Thursday (April 24), India further announced that all existing visas to Pakistani nationals were to be cancelled with effect from April 27 and suspend visa services for them. It also said that medical visas issued to all Pakistanis will be valid only until April 29. With this, the Modi government has made it nearly impossible for any Pakistanis to enter the country.

Policemen stand outside the gate of Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi, India. New Delhi has announced that all visas for Pakistanis stand cancelled. Reuters

However, the Kartarpur Corridor in Punjab’s Gurdaspur district has been kept open for pilgrims to visit the Kartarpur Sahib Gurdwara in Pakistan despite the escalation in tensions.

India’s Border Security Force (BSF) has also said that it would neither open the gates of the Attari border nor having a customary handshake with the Pakistani Rangers during the beating retreat ceremony. On Thursday, the parade commander of the Indian contingent also did not walk forward to shake hands with his Pakistani counterpart during the ceremony, which was attended by scores of people on both sides.

But that’s not all. India’s cricket body, the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI), announced that the Men in Blue would play no bilateral with Pakistan. “We are with the victims and we condemn it. Whatever our government will say, we will do. We don’t play with Pakistan in bilateral series because of the government stand. And we will not play with Pakistan in bilaterals going forward. But when it comes to ICC event we play due to ICC engagement. ICC is also aware whatever is happening they will to it (sic),” said BCCI vice-president Rajeev Shukla.

There are new reports that state that Shukla wrote to the ICC, urging them to no longer club the two nations together in the same group for tournaments. According to a report in Cricbuzz, BCCI no longer wishes for an India-Pakistan face-off, at least in the group stages of an ICC event.

In the wake of the Pahalgam attack, sources have also said that Pakistani actor Fawad Khan’s new movie, Abir Gulaal, will not be released in India. The Federation of Western India Cine Employees (FWICE) stated they would “take all necessary steps to ensure that Abir Gulaal is not released in India.”

Pakistan’s retaliation against India

As India announced its measures against Pakistan, the neighbouring country’s government also held a meeting following which it announced its own set of retaliatory measures.

Reacting to India’s punishments, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s office said that while Pakistan is concerned about the loss of the tourists’ lives [in Indian-administered Kashmir], “the Committee reviewed the Indian measures announced on 23 April 2025 and termed them unilateral, unjust, politically motivated, extremely irresponsible and devoid of legal merit.”

Supporters of the Pakistan Markazi Muslim League (PMML), carry flags and banners, during a protest against the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty by India, in Karachi, Pakistan. Reuters

“In the absence of any credible investigation and verifiable evidence, attempts to link the Pahalgam attack with Pakistan are frivolous, devoid of rationality and defeat logic,” the statement added.

Islamabad later announced that it “shall exercise the right to hold all bilateral agreements with India, including but not limited to Simla Agreement, in abeyance”. The agreement signed by Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and Pakistani President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto after the 1971 war was considered a significant breakthrough.

The agreement “was a comprehensive blueprint for good neighbourly relations between India and Pakistan”, with both countries undertaking “to abjure conflict and confrontation which had marred relations in the past, and to work towards the establishment of durable peace, friendship and cooperation”.

But there’s more. Islamabad also announced the closure of the Wagah border with India, but said it will remain open until April 30. All Indian citizens, excluding Sikh pilgrims, were ordered to leave in 48 hours.

Furthermore, it suspended visas issued to Indians under the Saarc programme, reduced the Indian High Commission staff in Islamabad to 30 and closed its airspace to all Indian aircraft, while all trade activities with India were suspended.

India-Pakistan edges close to war

With both sides resorting to harsh measures following the Pahalgam attack, there are worries that this could result in a larger conflict between the two nuclear-armed nations.

But some defence analysts have urged for caution, stating that a military conflict wouldn’t bode well for either sides. As Ajai Shukla a strategic affairs commentator and retired Indian Army officer, told NPR, “India has a freer hand to escalate for the simple reason that it does not have any alliances or military partnerships. The downside is that India will be fighting alone. There are limitations on the weaponry it can buy and use. And there’s the sorry fact that Pakistan and China and other countries tend to coalesce into an anti-India coalition of sorts.”

Others have noted that such tensions bode poorly for the region as well. “During the last escalation, both India and Pakistan were lucky to step down from the ladder,” said Murtaza Solangi, Pakistan’s former interim information minister.

“This time, we’re in a more dangerous phase,” he said. “A fractured global order and India’s hyperventilating media make it harder for Modi to act rationally. Both countries will be net losers if India doesn’t stop this madness.”

Even Fahd Humayun, assistant professor of political science at Tufts University, was quoted as telling CNN, “Downgrading diplomatic ties and holding the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance does not bode well for stability in the region.”

It is unknown what happens next, but for now we do know for certain that India and Pakistan futures are fraught.

With inputs from agencies