It has been a March Madness full of favorites, as favored teams won all 12 games in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds, going 7-5 against the spread. Overall, that means favorites have won 48 of the 60 games played in the 2025 NCAA tournament. Bookmakers would have loved an upset to break up all of the money-line parlays tied together with favorites over the weekend but didn’t get their wish.
While some have complained that the lack of upsets have made the 2025 NCAA tournament a little less interesting, what we’re left with is all four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four for only the second time in history. Clearly, these are the four best teams, and there are a couple interesting futures wagers still alive, including a $500,000 wager on Duke at +350 odds at BetMGM, which would pay out $1.75 million.
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[A Duke national title could net a bettor over $168K on a $5 championship winners parlay]
As I’ve done throughout the tournament, I’ve enlisted the help of some college basketball handicappers to share a best bet or two for the Final Four.
Here are the bets they like for Duke-Houston and Auburn-Florida:
All odds courtesy of BetMGM
8:49 p.m. ET (CBS)
Paul Stone, pro bettor: Houston is No. 1 in the country in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and the Cougars only had four opponents score 70 or more in regulation all season. The trademark of Kelvin Sampson’s teams has been tenacious defense — and this team is no different. They contest every pass and try to eliminate every angle. They’re relentless and never take their foot off the gas defensively. Duke’s arguably been the best offensive team in college basketball over the course of the season, and I think Sampson realizes the Cougars can’t get in a shootout with the Blue Devils. Houston has to turn it into a rock fight, an ugly game with a slower pace and points at a premium.
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We saw what Duke did to Alabama’s 3-point attack in its Elite Eight victory, and the Crimson Tide were coming off a historic performance, hitting 25-of-51 three-pointers against BYU in the Sweet 16. Against Duke, however, Bama got very few good looks and went 8-of-32 from downtown, as the Blue Devils were clearly committed to defending the 3-point line. Duke has a lot more length than other teams, which helps the perimeter defense, taking away the sidelines and making it tough on 3-point shooting teams. I like this game to stay under the total.
Bet: Under 136.5
