This is the strongest Final Four since the NCAA tournament expanded in 1985. It’s hard to argue otherwise.
This is just the second time all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four. It has four of the top 10 highest-rated teams in KenPom.com history, which dates back to the 1996-97 season.
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This tournament has been a little dry, in terms of great games, surprise storylines, upsets and Cinderellas. But that all led to a Final Four that may never be replicated. An all-time great Final Four would be the legacy of this tournament, not the relative disappointment that preceded it.
Here are the picks for the Final Four games on Saturday, with odds from BetMGM:
All times Eastern.
Think of the Final Four this way: Auburn ranks higher at KenPom than all but six teams from 1997-2024, yet it ranks fourth in this Final Four and has BetMGM’s longest odds to win it all at +525. Auburn would have been the favorite in 21 of the past 27 tournaments, if KenPom was used to set the odds.
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Part of the reason Auburn trails the field is Johni Broome’s health. Broome went down in the second half of the Elite Eight win with an elbow injury when he landed hard on the court. Broome came back into that game and there doesn’t seem to be any concern that he won’t play Saturday, but he did miss practices to start the week. Broome is a national player of the year contender along with favorite Cooper Flagg, and if he’s not 100% it would obviously affect Auburn.
But if Broome is at his normal level, Auburn is capable of winning it all. The way Florida gave up points in the paint to Texas Tech in the Elite 8 will be noted by the Tigers. Florida has needed great escapes against UConn and Texas Tech in this tournament, and while the Gators’ clutch play down the stretch in each game was impressive, it’s tough to keep winning that way. Auburn looked vulnerable late in the season but won its first three tournament games by double digits and led Michigan State by 10 or more for most of its six-point Elite Eight win. Florida did win 90-81 at Auburn on Feb. 8, but it’s hard to pass on Auburn getting points.
Workers look at a logo guide as they prepare this year’s court for the Final Four in San Antonio. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Duke looks unbeatable in this tournament. But so did 1991 UNLV, 1999 Duke, 2015 Kentucky, 2021 Gonzaga and a few other dominant favorites. And with a Final Four this strong, no team is guaranteed to win two games. Not even Cooper Flagg and Duke.
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The late matchup Saturday is fascinating. Duke is the most efficient offense that KenPom.com has ever tracked, barely ahead of fellow Final Four entrant Florida and 2015 Wisconsin. The Blue Devils will go against Houston, which was the No. 1 most efficient defense this season. It held Tennessee, a very good offensive team, to 15 points in the first half of the Elite Eight.
While Duke has had vibes of UConn the past two tournaments, UConn didn’t have a matchup as tough as Houston in either of those title runs. Houston isn’t one dimensional either, with KenPom’s No. 10 offense (Duke isn’t either with its No. 4 defense). This won’t be easy for Flagg and his team to advance, no matter how dominant the Blue Devils have been.
There’s a reason Duke is favored. The Blue Devils are a deserving favorite to win it all and have passed every analytics and eye test. This is a very good college basketball team. But so is Houston, and we’re long overdue for a couple of great, close games.
