As markets continued their downward spiral Monday, many are wondering: Is the U.S. heading into a recession?
A key data point is a model from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta that predicts GDP will shrink by an annualized rate of -2.4% this quarter. Then there are other signs, like tanking consumer sentiment and surging layoff announcements.
Still, there’s plenty of evidence that a downturn isn’t necessarily imminent. As recently as summer 2023, Goldman Sachs predicted more than a 30% chance of a recession, right before the U.S. saw seven consecutive quarters of more than 1.5% GDP growth.
FIRST UP
Photo by TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP via Getty Images
Wall Street extended its brutal losses on Monday, with all three major U.S. stock indexes closing at their lowest prices in months after President Donald Trump declined to rule out a recession in a Fox News interview over the weekend. The Nasdaq is in correction territory after falling 13% from its closing price on February 19, the S&P 500 is down 9% during that period, and the Dow is down 6%.
Tesla officially erased what was once a 91% post-election gain Monday, as shares of the electric vehicle maker declined more than 15% amid the stock market’s broader losses. It was the seventh-worst day in the company’s 15-year trading history, as a note from UBS analyst Joseph Spak called for the firm’s 2025 vehicle deliveries to decline by 5%.
MORE: In a Fox Business interview Monday, Elon Musk was asked how he is running his other businesses while simultaneously dedicating time to politics and DOGE. The billionaire said he’s doing so “with great difficulty,” but did not provide specifics for how he is running Tesla, SpaceX or xAI.
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BUSINESS + FINANCE
Tariff and economic uncertainty is sending gas prices down, with the average price falling to $3.03 per gallon, according to GasBuddy. That’s the lowest average price for the month of March in four years, as oil prices are closely linked with the state of the economy: If fewer people travel and buy goods, demand for oil could fall.
WEALTH + ENTREPRENEURSHIP
Photo by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Imagesages
China has a new richest man, according to Forbes’ estimates: Zhang Yiming, cofounder of TikTok parent company ByteDance, whose fortune has grown to $65.5 billion. The 41-year-old Zhang, who stepped down as chairman of the privately held tech giant in 2021, derives his net worth from a 21% stake in the firm. Forbes estimates that ByteDance has a valuation of $312 billion.
MORE: The Trump Administration says it is in talks with four groups interested in purchasing TikTok, with the president indicating “there could be” a deal for the app’s sale soon. Still, any sale would require China’s approval, and tensions between Beijing and Washington have risen sharply in the past few weeks, as Trump has moved to enforce 20% tariffs on all imports from China.
TECH + INNOVATION
Graphitic Energy is opening a pilot plant in San Antonio, Texas, to make clean hydrogen and graphite.
Getty Images
Although the federal climate for clean energy has shifted, one startup is generating the universe’s most abundant element, hydrogen, in an affordable and clean way that doesn’t need any help from Uncle Sam. California-based Graphitic Energy, which has raised $65 million, extracts hydrogen and carbon molecules from natural gas using a relatively small amount of electricity. In the process, it produces valuable graphite, which can sell for more than $2,500 a metric ton and is primarily produced in China.
MONEY + POLITICS
House Speaker Mike Johnson
Photo by Samuel Corum/Getty Images
Congress must pass a new spending bill by Friday to avoid a government shutdown, as President Donald Trump encouraged Republicans to unify behind a GOP-backed resolution that would largely keep current fiscal year 2024 funding levels in place until the end of September. Republicans can only afford to lose one vote in the House if all Democrats vote against it, and at least one House Republican has vowed not to support the bill.
Ontario will place a 25% surcharge on electricity flowing into the U.S. starting next week, the province’s Premier Doug Ford said Monday—the latest retaliatory measure in response to Trump’s tariffs on Canada. The surcharge will primarily impact Minnesota, Michigan and New York, and Ford said it will cost homes and businesses in the states $277,000 daily, or $69 a month for the average American household.
A federal judge ruled that Elon Musk’s DOGE must release records about its operation, as it is likely covered under the Freedom of Information Act—a major win for watchdog groups. The judge, who said DOGE’s operations were being carried out with “unusual secrecy,” rejected the argument that the agency was an arm of the president’s executive office, saying that its records must be subject to the transparency law.
WORLD
Rodrigo Duterte, the former president of the Philippines, was arrested in the country’s capital of Manila on Tuesday after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant against him as part of an investigation into accusations of crimes against humanity related to the former leader’s deadly war on drugs. In 2022, the Philippine government disclosed that a total of 6,252 people were killed during Duterte’s “antidrug operations,” although the Human Rights Watch believes the number to be much higher.
DAILY COVER STORY
Alaskans And Millions Of Other Americans Get Free Tax Help. They Could Soon Be Frozen Out.
ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER FOR FORBES
TOPLINE DOGE’s cost-cutting efforts have already targeted the IRS, and reports have spread about cutting the agency’s workforce by as much as half. But Forbes’ Kelly Phillips Erb, a tax attorney, recently volunteered in Alaska as part of an effort to help residents prepare their tax returns for free, and she writes that it demonstrates why taxpayer service isn’t a frill.
The Alaska volunteer effort is run by the tax-exempt Alaska Business Development Center in concert with the American Bar Association Section of Taxation, getting help from the IRS’ Volunteer Income Tax Assistance (VITA) grant program. For the 2025 fiscal year, the IRS awarded $53 million in such grants to 315 VITA organizations and 41 groups participating in a sister program, Tax Counseling for the Elderly (TCE). In 2023, grant recipients from the programs helped taxpayers file more than 2.1 million tax returns.
Whether the looming IRS budget cuts will leave room to support taxpayer services like VITA and TCE is an open question.
Many families would not have been able to file their taxes without VITA volunteers. While some owed taxes, many others were filing to receive a refund. Former IRS Commissioner John Koskinen often said that the refund due to some taxpayers is one of the largest checks they receive all year.
Often, families who qualify for those credits and refunds can’t afford to engage a paid preparer—or if they do, their refund may be eaten up by fees. That’s where VITA volunteers make a big difference, since they can prepare most Form 1040 returns.
WHY IT MATTERS “Our tax system can be complicated,” says Phillips Erb. “And many families may face situations that are too complicated for DIY software, and they cannot afford—or, as in some parts of the country like rural Alaska, may not be able to find—a qualified tax preparer near them to help file their taxes.”
“So, why should those taxpayers who don’t directly benefit from VITA care about the program? The U.S. income tax system is built on voluntary compliance—nearly 85% of taxpayers file and pay on time each year. Programs like VITA make it easier for taxpayers to keep those numbers up and our tax gap down. That’s good for everyone.”
MORE IRS To Fire Thousands Of Workers—In The Heart Of Tax Season
FACTS + COMMENTS
The U.S. is seeing far fewer Canadians cross the U.S. border by car—less than half of what was predicted for February—setting the stage for billions in economic losses this year. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urged citizens to reconsider visiting the U.S. after President Donald Trump levied tariffs on the country:
23%: The drop in the number of Canadians taking road trips into the U.S. last month compared to February 2024
$20.5 billion: The amount Canadian visitors, the largest group of foreign inbound tourists to the U.S., spent last year
More than $4 billion: The amount the U.S. economy could lose in 2025 if there is a sustained decline of more than 20% in Canadian visitors, according to the U.S. Travel Association
STRATEGY + SUCCESS
If you feel like you’ve been doing a good job at work but can’t land a promotion, make sure you are explicit about your career goals with your manager. Before that conversation, prepare a list of recent contributions to the team. Work with your boss to create a roadmap to your next position, and start acting like a leader even before you officially land the role. When the right opportunity arises, you’ll have already proven your leadership skills.
VIDEO
QUIZ
Users of a popular social media platform experienced multiple outages Monday, and its owner said the platform was targeted in a cyberattack. Which social media site was it?
A. X
B. Facebook
C. Instagram
D. Snapchat
Thanks for reading! This edition of Forbes Daily was edited by Sarah Whitmire and Chris Dobstaff.
