Kyle Schwarber matches up well with Giants SP Jordan Hicks, especially as the former reliever has hit some bumps along the way as a starter. Schwarber clobbers sinkers, which is Hicks’ bread and butter. Expect the slugger to do damage.
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Apr 17, 2025 • 10:12 ET • 4 min read
The Philadelphia Phillies are fighting for a series split when they host the San Francisco Giants in the final game of their four-game set This afternoon.
Philadelphia took an 11-4 beating on the chin last night and is desperately looking for offense after getting outscored 25-14 in the first three games with San Francisco.
The bat of outfielder Kyle Schwarber is a good start if the Phillies are going to break even in this series. He’s the focus of my Giants vs. Phillies predictions and best MLB picks on Thursday, April 17.
Giants vs Phillies prediction
My Giants vs Phillies best bet: Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 hits (-115 at BetMGM)
Kyle Schwarber is one of the Philadelphia Phillies’ most consistent producers. He’s hitting .266 BA and has recorded at least one hit in 13 of his 18 appearances so far in 2025. He leads the team with six home runs and 12 RBI.
Schwarber has picked up a hit in the past two outings versus the San Francisco Giants and is 2-for-9 with four walks in the first three games of the series. He and the Phllies stare down San Francisco starter Jordan Hicks, who’s had a tough time in his last two outings.
The right-hander started the season with six innings of shutout baseball but has since allowed 10 runs on 14 hits through his last 9 1/3 innings of work. That includes getting chased after only four innings versus the Yankees, giving up seven earned runs on eight hits on April 12.
Hicks’ hard-throwing style has been solid in his first run through the batting order, but hitters quickly catch on the more they get a look at the righty. The Yankees did damage in the fifth inning as their order got more intel on Hicks and this is a trend that showed up last season, with opposing batters surging in their third go-around versus the former reliever.
He leans heavily on his sinker, which makes up more than 60% of his pitches. Rival batters are hitting just shy of .300 BA off that pitch and Schwarber is notably good versus sinkerballers, hitting .500 BA off sinkers this season and .295 BA off them for this career.
Schwarber and Hicks have faced off only six times with Philadelphia’s big swinger going 0-fer with two strikeouts in those at-bats. Despite those outcomes, MLB player props projections are very positive for Schwarber this afternoon.
Game models range from 0.7 to 0.9 hits for Schwarber, which gives good value to his Over 0.5 hits. Many sportsbooks have the Over priced as high as -135 but you can find -115 on this same market at BetMGM.
Giants vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 hitsJung Hoo Lee Over 0.5 hits
Phillies moneyline
Schwarber has 13 hits in 18 games and his bat speed and success against sinkers has him projected for at least one hit.
Jung Hoo Lee has been red hot at the plate for the Giants, recording at least one hit in all but three games for the Giants this season.
The Phillies send Cristopher Sanchez to the mound, with the lefty pitching very well to start 2025. San Francisco is hitting just .210 BA as a team versus southpaws.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Giants vs Phillies odds
Giants vs Phillies live odds
Giants vs Phillies opening odds
- Moneyline: San Francisco +140 | Philadelphia -170
- Run line: San Francisco +1.5 (-160) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Giants vs Phillies trend
The Philadelphia Phillies won outright on the moneyline in 55 of their last 80 games at home (+14.75 Unit /10% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Phillies.
How to watch Giants vs Phillies and game info
Location Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA Date Thursday, 4-17-2025 First pitch 4:05 p.m. ET TV NBC Sports Bay Area, NBC Sports Philadelphia+ Giants starting pitcher Jordan Hicks
(1-1, 5.87 ERA) Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sanchez
(1-0, 3.12 ERA)
Giants vs Phillies latest injuries
Giants vs Phillies weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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