How trends, talent and luck sent 2023 blue-chip QBs scrambling and made Arch Manning an outlier

The messy end of Nico Iamaleava’s Tennessee career created an eye-opening statistic: Of the top eight quarterback recruits in the 2023 class (per 247Sports), only one is still at the program he signed with — Arch Manning.

The start-or-depart mentality has defined many quarterback transactions of the last decade-plus, but the loosening of transfer restrictions and introduction of compensation via name, image and likeness deals (and an upcoming system of direct revenue sharing) have helped create even more volatility at the position.

So what happened to all these quarterbacks, and what does it say about the state of college football? Here’s a case-by-case look at each of the top eight QB recruits of 2023.

Note: All rankings are via 247Sports.

Arch Manning

Class of 2023 ranking: 5-star, No. 1 overall, No. 1 QB

Signed with: Texas

Current school: Texas

Manning is the unicorn of this group for multiple reasons. He has the great fortune of having three former NFL quarterbacks in his family: grandfather Archie Manning and uncles Peyton Manning and Eli Manning. So it stands to reason he learned a thing or two from them along the way.

Arch’s father, Cooper Manning, requested a “1970s-(style) recruitment” out of high school, without all the social media bells and whistles that are commonplace in today’s courtships. The Mannings pulled that off, and Arch’s Texas career has had a decidedly old-school flair, too. He spent his first season as the third-string quarterback behind established starter Quinn Ewers and backup Maalik Murphy. When Ewers returned in 2024 and Murphy transferred, Manning became the backup. He started two games and finished another when Ewers was out due to injury and had a role in short-yardage packages, but he otherwise remained on the sideline as Ewers led Texas to a second consecutive appearance in the College Football Playoff semifinals.

Now, heading into his redshirt sophomore season, Manning is QB1.

Why he stayed: Despite plenty of wish-casting to the contrary, Manning never seriously considered transferring. He carefully chose Texas after a thorough recruiting process, in large part to play for Steve Sarkisian. The Longhorns head coach has a long list of successful pupils in his coaching career: Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, Mark Sanchez, Jake Locker, Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones and more. Sarkisian and quarterbacks coach A.J. Milwee, who was also heavily involved in his recruitment, have coached Manning hard and developed him over the last two years.

“There’s nowhere else I want to be,” Manning told reporters last week. “I love this place. So I want to be the quarterback at the University of Texas.”

The Mannings were also willing to be patient, knowing that the talented Ewers was there when Arch arrived. There was no desire to rush Arch onto the field before he was ready. Now that he’s prepared to take the reins, that patience should pay off.

Nico Iamaleava

Class of 2023 ranking: 5-star, No. 2 overall, No. 2 QB

Signed with: Tennessee

Current school: To be determined

Iamaleava arrived in Knoxville to great fanfare after inking a four-year, $8 million NIL contract. He redshirted his freshman year but started the Citrus Bowl when Joe Milton opted out. He took over as the starter in 2024 and offered mixed results: 2,616 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and five interceptions with a 63.8 percent completion rate. In eight games against bowl teams, he threw eight touchdown passes and averaged 6.7 yards per attempt. But Tennessee went 10-3 with Iamaleava and made the Playoff.

Why he transferred: Iamaleava, who was due $2.2 million in 2025, sought to renegotiate his deal with the goal of making $4 million. Tennessee held its ground, and when Iamaleava did not show up to practice on Friday without prior notice, Tennessee coach Josh Heupel decided the Vols would move on. Iamaleava is a promising talent, and there will be a market for his services in the spring transfer portal, but he overplayed his hand.

Iamaleava’s NFL-style holdout was new to college football, and some believe it could become a trend. But Tennessee nipped it in the bud, and now Iamaleava is looking for a new home.

Dante Moore

Class of 2023 ranking: 5-star, No. 4 overall, No. 3 QB

Signed with: UCLA

Current school: Oregon

Out of all the top 2023 quarterback signees, Moore was one of the few who stepped into a situation where he could play right away, as the most high-profile signee of Chip Kelly’s tenure at UCLA. But Moore might have been thrown into the fire too soon. He became the starter after one game in his true freshman season but played poorly over the next few weeks and was benched. He finished 2023 with 1,610 yards passing, 11 touchdown passes and nine interceptions with a 53.5 completion percentage. Moore was the latest example of how difficult it can be for true freshmen to step in and play right way at quarterback — no matter how talented or promising they may be.

Why he transferred: Moore wasn’t perfect, but UCLA’s offense was a total mess in 2023, with no indication it would improve in ’24. It was also pretty clear that winter that Kelly wanted out at UCLA. So Moore entered the portal and made the increasingly rare decision to prioritize his development. He transferred to Oregon, where he’d committed before flipping to UCLA late in the 2023 recruiting cycle, even though he knew he’d back up Dillon Gabriel. He’s the favorite to win the starting job for the Ducks in 2025. His journey could serve as a cautionary tale for how much fit still matters, even for some of the most talented quarterbacks.

Jackson Arnold

Class of 2023 ranking: 5-star, No. 10 overall, No. 4 QB

Signed with: Oklahoma

Current school: Auburn

Arnold was set to be the next star quarterback at Oklahoma. He had a decorated Texas high school career, was the Gatorade national player of the year as a senior and showed flashes of his talent as a true freshman backup to Dillon Gabriel in 2023. When Gabriel transferred to Oregon, Arnold took the reins, but he was benched four starts into the 2024 season for true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. Two games later, Oklahoma went back to Arnold for the rest of the season.

Why he transferred: It was a rough time all around for the Sooners last season. Arnold struggled, but so did the offensive line and the receiving corps‚ which were both ravaged by injuries. Head coach Brent Venables fired offensive coordinator Seth Littrell in the middle of the season. A change of scenery seemed appropriate for Arnold, who told AL.com that he needed a “hard reset” after the adversity of 2024. His skills should be a good fit in Hugh Freeze’s offense.

Malachi Nelson

Class of 2023 ranking: 5-star, No. 13 overall, No. 5 QB

Signed with: USC

Current school: UTEP

Nelson arrived at USC in January 2023 as an early enrollee in line to be the heir apparent to Caleb Williams, but he was coming off shoulder surgery, which put him behind schedule. Even if he were healthy, it would’ve been tough for him to beat out Miller Moss for the backup job. He didn’t, and when head coach Lincoln Riley started looking for a starter-caliber transfer QB in December 2023, Nelson decided to enter the portal. He transferred to Boise State, which was viewed as a massive win for the Broncos at the time — except Maddux Madsen won the starting job during training camp, and it was clear Nelson’s time there wouldn’t last beyond the season. He entered the portal in December and landed at UTEP.

Why he transferred: Nelson needs to play at some point. He has not had a robust market for his services the two times he has entered the portal, which might suggest how programs really feel about his skill set. In El Paso, he’ll have to beat out returning starter Skyler Locklear, who has more experience in the system — a common theme in the competitions Nelson has lost the past two years. Sometimes recruiting services — and college coaches — just miss on their evaluations. Unless Nelson dramatically turns things around, he could be the latest example of a five-star miss.

Jaden Rashada

Class of 2023 ranking: 4-star No. 44 overall, No. 6 QB

Signed with: Florida

Current school: To be determined

Rashada has made the most stops of any of the top 10 quarterbacks in the 2023 class. He signed with Florida but got out of his letter of intent after an NIL collective, which signed him to a deal worth more than $13 million, then terminated the agreement weeks before he was to enroll.

Rashada later signed with Arizona State, where he started the first two games of the 2023 season and appeared in another before transferring to Georgia in the spring of 2024. Rashada spent just one semester at Georgia, where he was behind Carson Beck, Gunnar Stockton and Ryan Puglisi. He entered the portal a second time and is still searching for his next stop.

Why he transferred: Rashada’s would-be Florida career was an NIL casualty, but not by his doing. Winning the starting job out of training camp at Arizona State was promising, but the Sun Devils sought upgrades at the position after the 2023 season, bringing in Sam Leavitt and Jeff Sims (Leavitt took Arizona State to the College Football Playoff and returns for 2025). Rashada chose Georgia knowing that he wouldn’t start, but he was so far down the depth chart that playing time seemed like a distant possibility. He’ll likely choose somewhere he can get on the field in 2025.

Aidan Chiles

Class of 2023 ranking: 4-star, No. 58 overall, No. 7 QB

Signed with: Oregon State

Current school: Michigan State

Chiles was a significant recruiting triumph for Oregon State, which held off brand-name programs that tried to make a push for him late in the 2023 cycle. Coach Jonathan Smith found ways to get Chiles on the field as a true freshman even though DJ Uiagalelei was the starter. It wasn’t difficult to find people who thought Chiles had more upside of the two. After the regular season ended, Smith took the Michigan State job, and Chiles followed him to East Lansing. Chiles passed for 2,415 yards, 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in his first season as a full-time starter in 2024. He also rushed for 225 yards and three scores.

Why he transferred: Chiles was just the latest in a trend we’ve seen across the sport where quarterbacks will follow the head coach or offensive coordinator with whom they’ve built a relationship to a new school. Smith evaluated Chiles in high school and built a strong enough rapport with him that Chiles stuck with Oregon State in the recruiting process. So it’s no surprise that Chiles followed Smith to Michigan State. But as expectations for the Spartans rise, Chiles will be in for an important season.

Austin Mack

Class of 2023 ranking: 4-star, No. 73 overall, No. 8 QB

Signed with: Washington

Current school: Alabama

Mack was initially a member of the 2024 recruiting cycle but reclassified to 2023 and signed with Washington. He didn’t play as a freshman, buried on the depth chart behind Michael Penix Jr. and Dylan Morris, but earned plenty of buzz. He transferred to Alabama after the 2023 season when Kalen DeBoer left for Tuscaloosa. He attempted three passes in 2024 and is part of a three-man QB competition for the job this offseason.

Why he transferred: Mack, like Chiles, followed the coach who signed him out of high school. He has spent the past two years with DeBoer and is now reunited with the offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, who recruited him to Washington. Mack has been patient so far, but it will be interesting to see how much longer he sticks with DeBoer should he finish second or third in Alabama’s quarterback race this offseason.

Other notable 2023 QB recruits

The two quarterbacks who rounded out 247Sports’ top 10 in 2023 are still at their original schools: Avery Johnson (Kansas State) and Christopher Vizzina (Clemson). They’ve had contrasting journeys to this point.

Johnson played in eight games as a freshman and started two, but Will Howard took the bulk of the snaps. Still, Johnson’s talent was enticing and Howard transferred to Ohio State, opening the door for Johnson to take over in 2024. He threw for 2,712 yards and a school-record 25 touchdowns but completed just 58 percent of his passes. His athleticism (605 rushing yards, seven touchdowns) makes him a challenge for opposing defenses, but he’ll have to take better care of the ball (10 interceptions).

Vizzina is taking a more methodical approach, similar to Manning. Vizzina redshirted in 2023 and played in seven games in 2024 behind starter Cade Klubnik. Vizzina will remain the backup as Klubnik returns in 2025 and Clemson hopes to return to the Playoff. He should be in position to be the starter in 2026.

(Photos: Johnnie Izquierdo, Tim Warner / Getty Images)

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