As Election Day in Wisconsin’s closely watched state Supreme Court race neared, Republican megadonor Elon Musk summarized its perceived importance in dramatic terms. This one electoral contest, Musk said, could determine “the future of America and Western Civilization.” He added that he believes the race was likely to “affect the entire destiny of humanity.”
A few days later, voters in the Badger State rendered their verdict — and it wasn’t the one Musk and other Republicans wanted to hear. As my MSNBC colleague Clarissa-Jan Lim summarized overnight:
Liberal candidate Susan Crawford has won the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, NBC News projected Tuesday, preserving a liberal majority on the swing state’s highest court. Crawford, a circuit court judge in Dane County, defeated Brad Schimel, a Waukesha County circuit court judge and former Republican state attorney general.
Technically, the Wisconsin race was non-partisan, but the political battle lines were clearly drawn: Democrats rallied behind the progressive candidate, while Donald Trump and the GOP were heavily invested, literally and figuratively, in the conservative candidate.
The race — the most expensive judicial contest in the history of the United States — was expected to be close. It was not. With roughly 95% of the vote counted, Crawford appears to have prevailed by roughly 10 points.
On the surface, the news for Republicans was better in Florida, where GOP candidates won congressional special elections held in Republican strongholds. But here, too, the outcomes were unsettling for the party: The GOP representatives-elect won their races by roughly 14 points in districts where Republicans won by more than 30 points as recently as the 2024 cycle — just six months ago.
What’s more, they ran against Democratic neophytes who raised a ton of money but who were, quite recently, expected to be crushed. Instead, GOP officials and their allies had to scramble to prevent upsets, as the Democratic candidates over-performed.
These races follow a series of other Democratic special election victories in recent weeks, including Democrats unexpectedly flipping two GOP-held state legislative seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania, as well as the White House abandoning Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik’s ambassadorial nomination last week because of fears that Democrats might win her seat — in a New York district that Trump won by 21 points.
As the dust settles on the most important electoral tests of Trump’s second term, we’ve learned a few things about the electoral landscape.
Musk won’t save Republican candidates: The president’s top campaign donor spent millions in the hopes of pushing Schimel to victory in Wisconsin, and it backfired, with Democrats ultimately running against Musk, whom they accused of trying to buy the election. There’s a lesson here for GOP officials who’ve falsely assumed that Musk is popular with the American mainstream and who’ve operated from the assumption that the billionaire can help carry them across the finish line in 2026.
Democrats will be running against Musk a lot in the coming months: Trump’s unpopularity matters, but Musk’s unpopularity runs deeper. If you’re thinking the billionaire will be a centerpiece of Democratic messaging going forward, you’re right.
Republicans in competitive districts have reason to worry: The GOP thought it could run the 2024 playbook in a battleground state that Trump narrowly won, counting on that recipe to keep working. It failed badly. Republicans representing districts that were highly competitive last year are now confronted with a choice: Ignore the prevailing winds, stick with their party and hope for the best, or start putting some distance between themselves and the GOP.
Trump’s endorsements are of limited value: Once again, Trump told voters to turn out for an ally. Once again, it didn’t matter. There’s no denying that the president has a loyal base, but to assume that base will necessarily rally behind his preferred candidates is a mistake.
Reassessing the Democratic “brand”: Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado told NBC News over the weekend that his party’s brand is “problematic.” Around the same time, California’s Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, said the Democratic brand is “toxic.” Days earlier, Democratic Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania told Politico, “If we don’t get our s— together, then we are going to be in a permanent minority.”
Maybe so, but while some Democratic officials complain about the party’s reputation, Democratic candidates have been doing pretty well lately.
In the aftermath of Election Day 2024, the conventional wisdom suggested not only that Republicans had entered an era of electoral dominance, but also that Democratic voters were demoralized, disheartened and prepared to withdraw from civic life for a long while.
A lot has changed in six months.
