The GOP held both Florida congressional seats contested in Tuesday’s special election, replacing former Reps. Mike Waltz and Matt Gaetz with fellow Republicans. Both races were called just half an hour after polls closed in each district by the New York Times and CNN.
Republican Randy Fine defeated Democratic challenger Josh Weil on Tuesday in the special election to fill Waltz’s former House of Representatives seat in northern Florida.
Florida Republican Jimmy Patronis beat Democrat Gay Valimont in Tuesday’s special election to fill Gaetz’s old seat in the Florida Panhandle.
Although both are conservative districts, the victories were critical for President Donald Trump and the GOP given their narrow majorities on Capitol Hill.
Democrats can nonetheless boast of outperforming expectations, having cut the GOP’s margin of victory in both districts roughly in half from 2024.
Gaetz and Waltz stepped down after being tapped for positions in the Trump administration. Waltz is now Trump’s national security advisor, but Gaetz withdrew from consideration for attorney general.
Meanwhile, a contentious court race is unfolding in Wisconsin Tuesday.
In the Badger State, conservative Brad Schimel faces liberal Susan Crawford. Despite being a nonpartisan race, the contest is an expected referendum on President Donald Trump, his adviser Elon Musk, as well as Democrats on the hunt for a national comeback.
In the lead up to Election Day, money from out-of-state donors has poured into Wisconsin. Musk is by far the largest contributor, having spent at least $20 million in effort to boost Schimel. On Tuesday, Musk handed out two checks for $1 million each to voters in Wisconsin.
The 1st District, in the state’s western panhandle, was represented previously by former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who resigned last November. The 6th, along the eastern coast of Florida, is Mike Waltz’s old seat. He left Congress earlier this year to become Trump’s National Security Advisor.
Polls: What voters in Wisconsin are saying about the high-stakes court race
Here are the latest updates on both states’ elections.
Florida wins give Trump a needed House cushion — for now
President Donald Trump will—at least for the moment—have a bit more breathing room in the House after scoring two expected wins on Tuesday in Florida’s special elections.
Republicans currently hold a 218-213 edge over Democrats, which leaves Trump’s legislative agenda hanging on a narrow margin.
That razor-thin majority failed a test earlier on Tuesday, for example, when House Republican leaders had to retreat after nine GOP members sided with all the Democrats to stop a rule change that would have prohibited new parents from voting by proxy.
“This means we can’t take any further action on President Trump’s agenda this week,” Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said in a post on X.
But even with two GOP reinforcements, things will likely be tight in the House later this year.
That’s because the remaining two House vacancies—in Arizona and Texas— are in solidly Democratic-leaning areas. If Democrats hold those seats in special elections to fill them, Johnson and Trump will be left agaion with very little room for defections.
−Phillip M. Bailey
Escambia County experienced ‘temporary ballot shortages’ in Congressional special election
Some polling locations in Florida’s 1st Congressional District experienced “temporary ballot shortages” during Tuesday’s special election.
The Escambia County Supervisor of Elections Office alerted the media at 7 p.m. as polls were closing − and published a notice on its website − acknowledging the issue and assuring voters that every vote would be counted.
“Due to unprecedented voter turnout in today’s Special General Election for U.S. House of Representatives, District 1, some precinct locations in Escambia County have experienced temporary ballot shortages,” the notice said.
Escambia County Supervisor of Elections Robert Bender was attributed as saying “every voter in line before polls close at 7 p.m. will be able to cast their ballot, and every valid ballot will be counted.”
−Kevin Robinson
Voting wraps in Wisconsin
Polls are closed in Wisconsin, where the race between conservative Brad Schimel and liberal Susan Crawford will decide who becomes the state’s seventh Supreme Court justice. It will also determine the court’s overall ideological lean.
If Schimel wins, the court will have a 4-3 conservative majority; should Crawford succeed, it’s a 4-3 liberal court.
Even beyond state borders, Wisconsin’s race carries weight as likely the first reliable temperature check on Trump, Musk and both parties’ popularity. Wisconsin is a closely divided swing state, and it is seen as a bellwether for the country as a whole.
The GOP enjoys a slim margin of control in both chambers of Congress, and Trump is back in the White House after winning the popular vote in November by 1.5 percentage points.
“The (Republican) Party is behaving as if it has a mandate for really dramatic action,” said Barry Burden, a political science professor and director of the University of Wisconsin-Madison Elections Research Center.
“A loss by conservatives in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race would be a big symbolic setback,” he continued. “It would suggest the public is tired of that and wants the administration to stop and go in a different direction.”
−Savannah Kuchar
Florida Republican to succeed Matt Gaetz in Congress
Republican Jimmy Patronis beat Democrat Gay Valimont in a Florida special election to fill former Rep. Matt Gaetz’s House of Representatives seat.
The race was called by the New York Times and CNN just an hour after both outlets called former Republican Rep. Mike Waltz’s seat, also in Florida, for Republican Randy Fine.
Both wins give President Donald Trump and Republicans some relief in the lower chamber, where the GOP currently holds a tenuous majority.
“Both Florida House seats have been won, big, by the Republican candidate,” the president wrote on Truth Social Tuesday evening. “The Trump endorsement, as always, proved far greater than the Democrats forces of evil. Congratulations to America!!!”
−Savannah Kuchar and Sudiksha Kochi
Did Democrats ‘overperform’ in Florida?
Most forecasters didn’t give Democrat a snowball’s chance at winning either of Tuesday’s special elections in Florida, so why did these pair of races get thrust into the national spotlight?
In part, it is the still unanswered question of how well the Democratic contenders did compared to previous elections.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. predicted last week the party would “significantly overperform” in both contests.
In Florida’s 6th Congressional District, the Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Waltz won by 33% last fall. But with roughly 95% of precincts reporting, the tally shows Republican Randy Fine beating his Democratic opponent by about 14%.
Similarly, in the 1st Congressional District, where former Rep. Matt Gaetz coasted to a win by 32% last time around, Republican Jimmy Patronis is outpacing his Democratic foe by roughly 15% with about the same percent of precincts reporting.
If these margins hold, expect Democrats and their allies to showcase them as the first of cracks in Trump 2.0’s base.
−Phillip M. Bailey
Trump congratulates Florida’s new representative
President Trump applauded Republican Randy Fine, the victor in one of two special House elections happening in Florida Tuesday.
“Congratulations Randy, a great WIN against a massive CASH AVALANCHE,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.
Fine’s Democratic opponent Josh Weil had raised an eye-popping amount of money in vying to represent the red-leaning congressional district, raising concern among some conservatives.
The president on social media also congratulated fellow Florida Republican Jimmy Patronis, who is running to replace former Rep. Matt Gaetz representing a district in the state’s panhandle. The race had yet to be called at the time Trump posted, however.
−Savannah Kuchar
Polls close in second Florida race
Voting in Florida’s 1st Congressional District is now over.
The race is one of two special elections in the state Tuesday. Polls for the other race, that one to represent Florida’s 6th Congressional District, closed an hour earlier. A half hour later, the election was called for Republican Randy Fine.
Both districts are red-leaning and both contests are must-wins for Republicans looking to boost their razor thin majority margins in the House.
−Savannah Kuchar
Republican wins first Florida special election
Republican Randy Fine is headed to Congress, after defeating Democrat Josh Weil in a race to represent Florida’s 6th Congressional District.
His win is a critical one for President Donald Trump and the GOP given their narrow majorities on Capitol Hill. The race was called for Fine just half an hour after polls closed in the heavily Republican district by the New York Times and CNN.
Fine, 50, will be taking over the seat left vacant by Mike Waltz, who Trump tapped to serve as the national security advisor. Waltz previously represented the red-leaning congressional district that covers cities such as Daytona Beach as well as the Ocala National Forest.
−Savannah Kuchar and Sudiksha Kochi
‘Do or die’: Democrats fear worst but seek glimmer of hope
Democrats are desperate for a win, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court race could be the first prominent victory to launch a comeback.
Some liberals are already pleased going into Tuesday after Louisiana voters rejected four constitutional amendments backed by Trump-aligned Gov. Jeff Landry.
But what if Schimel prevails? It’s a thought that worries Democrats, such as Kelly Hafermann, who lives in Madison, Wisconsin, who said there is a high level of anxiety for voters paying close attention.
“This is do or die,” the 47-year-old higher education administrator told USA TODAY.
“If we win this, this gives us the momentum to move forward. If we lose this, they’re going to be a lot of really dejected people,” she added. “I have not seen a joyful voter yet.”
−Phillip M. Bailey
Polls close in one Florida special election
Voting has ended in Florida’s 6th Congressional District along the state’s eastern coast. It is the first of three key races Tuesday to close polls.
Next up is Florida’s other special election, this one taking place in the 1st Congressional District in the panhandle. Polls in that district, which is in Central time zone, close 8 p.m. ET.
And finally, Wisconsin, which hosts a contentious court race, will end voting at 9 p.m. ET.
— Savannah Kuchar
Mike Johnson: ‘We’re not going to lose’
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., told reporters on Tuesday that he was confident Republicans will win the two U.S. House seats in the Florida special elections.
Republican Jimmy Patronis is running against Democrat Gay Valimont to fill the first congressional district seat vacated by former Rep. Matt Gaetz. And Republican Randy Fine is going head to head with Josh Weil, a Democrat, for former Rep. Mike Waltz’s seat in the sixth congressional district.
“We’re not going to lose, and we’ll win, and we’re going to have two victories, and that’s what’s important,” he said.
His remarks come as some Republican officials have expressed concerns about the outcome of the races as Democrats have heavily out-fundraised their opponents.
Valimont has raised nearly $6.5 million through March 12, according to the Federal Election Commission, while Patronis has raised a little over $2.1 million. And Weil’s campaign has raised more than $10 million. In comparison, Fine has raised less than a million dollars, data shows.
But Johnson brushed off any concerns of Democrats potentially overperforming in the two red districts.
“Everyone knows special elections are special. It’s an anomaly. It doesn’t mean anything,” he said.
−Sudiksha Kochi
What issues are at stake in Wisconsin’s court race?
The ramifications of the race to fill Wisconsin’s Supreme Court are expected both in the state and beyond its borders.
At home, issues like abortion, voter ID laws and union rights are expected to be up for debate. The court is already in the middle of deciding if an 1849 abortion ban, enacted one year after Wisconsin became a state, will stand. The law criminalizes abortion with no exceptions for rape or incest.
Beyond the Badger State, Democrats and Republicans are both raising alarms that should their opponents win, the other side will be able to refigure the state’s constitutional map to their favor.
The liberal-majority Wisconsin Supreme Court did opt to rework the state legislative map in 2023, making it more competitive for Democrats. However, the court at the time opted to leave the federal district boundaries alone.
−Savannah Kuchar
Walz warns Democrats not to overplay Wisconsin race
The Wisconsin election is a proxy war over the country’s direction, with Trump and Musk backing Schimel and many left-leaning groups supporting Crawford.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who was the Democratic vice-presidential nominee last year, is among those supporting her bid.
Since being former Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate, he has been touring the country talking to voters about how Democrats can regain a foothold.
In a one-on-one interview with USA Today, the 60-year-old governor said local elections can serve as a reset for the party that is out of power in Washington comeback, but that whatever happens, Democrats still have a larger dilemma of connecting with voters on the national level.
“It’s a different electorate that shows up for midterms and special elections,” Walz said.
“If you’re going to get out on April 1 and cast a vote on a special election for a Supreme Court seat in the state of Wisconsin, you’re paying attention closer,” he added. “What we have yet to crack is on these presidential elections, and especially with Trump, there is a whole new electorate out there that’s not hearing that message.”
— Phillip M. Bailey
Musk calls Wisconsin race ‘extremely tight’
Elon Musk, President Donald Trump’s billionaire adviser, told Fox News on Tuesday that the Wisconsin judicial election is important because it could help determine the House majority in the 2026 election.
Musk said if the candidate favored by Democrats wins, Democrats could approve a redrawn congressional map for the Badger State’s delegation to eliminate two Republican seats. With the narrow Republican majority in the House, Musk argued that could hand Democrats the majority.
“They’re going to do everything possible to stop the president’s agenda,” Musk said on “The Five,” encouraging people to register and vote before the close of polls at 8 p.m.
“It’s an extremely tight race,” Musk said of a race that could be determined by less than a percentage point of the vote. “It’s really neck-and-neck.”
Musk didn’t name the candidates, but Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel, who is favored by Republicans, is campaigning against Dane County Judge Susan Crawford, who is favored by Democrats. They are running for a vacant seventh seat on the state Supreme Court, which will tip the balance of the court’s majority.
Musk said that if Democrats regain control of the House, they would hold nonstop impeachment hearings and issue subpoenas to thwart Trump’s agenda.
“They are trying to stop the will of the people through judicial trickery,” Musk said.
−Bart Jansen
Musk writes million-dollar checks to WI supporters
The world’s richest man made an appearance in Green Bay, Wisc. Sunday evening, two days ahead of Election Day. During the 2,000-person rally, Musk donned a cheese wedge hat, implored voters to turn out for conservative Brad Schimel, and handed out two $1 million checks.
One of those grand prizes went to Nick Jacobs, chair of the Wisconsin College Republicans and vice chair of College Republicans at the University of Wisconsin-River Falls.
Jacobs thanked Musk on X Tuesday, the platform owned by the tech entrepreneur, hours before polls close in the Badger State.
Musk’s expensive giveaways to voters were subject to scrutiny during the 2024 presidential election. Wisconsin’s Attorney General Josh Kaul, a Democrat, sought to block Musk from making any payments ahead of the contentious court race, but the state’s current liberal-leaning Supreme Court on Sunday rejected his request.
−Savannah Kuchar
Early voting surpasses 500K in Wisconsin Supreme Court race
The Wisconsin Supreme Court race is one of the first big electoral tests for President Donald Trump and his MAGA movement, and turnout is expected to be significant.
Election officials said Tuesday early voting exceeded 500,000 votes, which means the final tally could reach 2 million two million. That projection is slightly higher than the roughly 1.8 million Badger State voters who showed up in the 2023 state Supreme Court battle, for example.
The overall number of absentee ballots returned by mail or cast in person is up 54%, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Many believe that a higher turnout bodes well for Democrats, who are backing Susan Crawford, the liberal-leaning circuit court judge, but local reports point out that early voting surged in more conservative counties.
− Phillip M. Bailey
The country’s most expensive court race
The race to fill Wisconsin’s seventh state Supreme Court seat shattered records for the country’s most expensive judicial election. The previous record of $51 million was set two years ago in Wisconsin.
This year, spending by both sides combined could exceed $100 million.
Much of that has come from Musk’s wallet. The world’s richest man has dropped about $20 million on Schimel’s campaign, including handing out multiple $1 million checks to individual voters.
Democratic donors have pitched in too. Billionaire George Soros and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker are among those who have forked over high dollar contributions for Crawford.
− Savannah Kuchar
Who is leading in Florida’s races?
Republicans are favored to win both races Tuesday, in ruby red districts that went for Trump last year by double digits.
Reports have shown the Democratic candidates surpassing their GOP opponents in fundraising. The numbers are raising concerns on the right and giving those on the left some cautious optimism.
“I think we’re going to overperform expectations,” in Florida, Ken Martin, the chair of the Democratic National Committee, told USA TODAY. “And there’s certainly a chance we could win.”
− Savannah Kuchar
