March Madness is down to the Sweet 16.
And so far, the 2025 NCAA tournament has been all about the power conferences.
Half of the record 14 Southeastern Conference schools in the tournament remain, with at least two teams from the conference in three of the four regions. The Big 12 and Big Ten each have four teams still dancing, while Duke is the lone Atlantic Coast Conference team left. The Blue Devils are among the four No. 1 seeds all still in the bracket. Meanwhile, all the Big East teams were eliminated by the second round.
But what really stands out after the first weekend is that the tournament has been void of any real Cinderella. No team from a mid-major conference is represented in the Sweet 16. It’s also the first Sweet 16 since 2007 without a team seeded 11 or higher.
John Calipari’s 10th-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks, from the SEC, is the last double-digit seed left in the tournament after upsetting Big East champion St. John’s in the second round.
FOLLOW THE MADNESS: NCAA men’s tournament bracket, scores, schedules, teams and more.
The lack of early round upsets might just mean we’re in store for some exciting Sweet 16 games between powerhouse programs. Who will win?
Despite Marquette and Wisconsin bowing out in the first and second rounds, respectively, Journal Sentinel digital producers Chris Kuhagen and Emmett Prosser are back with some fearless Sweet 16 predictions in each of the NCAA tournament regions.
Like our predictions last week when the bracket was revealed, Kuhagen has the South and East regions, while Prosser is picking the Midwest and West regions:
March Madness Sweet 16 predictions: South Region
- Auburn (1) over Michigan (5)
- Mississippi (6) over Michigan State (2)
Analysis: It’s the SEC vs. Big Ten in the two Sweet 16 games in the South Region. Both of the SEC schools will emerge to the Elite Eight in two hard-fought heavyweight battles.
It hasn’t been perfect for Auburn but its size has helped the Tigers take control of their early-round games to avoid being on the wrong end of an upset. Now, Auburn is in its first Sweet 16 since 2019. After having a good battle against Creighton in the second round, it faces a confident Michigan team that has the horses to take down the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed. After all, the Wolverines just beat Texas A&M, a team that beat Auburn earlier this month, with a 56-point second half and by dominating the glass.
The matchup to watch is down low featuring Michigan’s 7-foot-1 center Vladislav Goldin, who scored 23 points and grabbed 12 rebounds against the Aggies, and Auburn’s 6-foot-10 forward Johni Broome, who has double-digit rebounds in both tournament games. Expect a lot of physicality around the hoop.
I picked Auburn to win this region at the start and I’m sticking with Bruce Pearl’s veteran team. Auburn wins in a slugfest that has the makings of an overtime thriller.
For the other Sweet 16 game, I like No. 6 Mississippi to keep rolling over No. 2 Michigan State. I saw the Running Rebels in person at Fiserv Forum on Friday and was left very impressed as they raced past UNC, a trendy pick after its win in the First Four. What did the Rebels do for an encore Sunday? They demolished No. 3 seed Iowa State, a very good Big 12 team that had a home-court advantage in Milwaukee. Mississippi is the slight underdog against Michigan State in the Sweet 16 like it was against UNC and Iowa State, but it shouldn’t be.
Mississippi can score from inside and outside; they can push the pace or score in the half court. And it has a guard who is made for this stage in senior Sean Pedulla. He led the Rebels with 20 points in each tournament game and hit the dagger three-pointer against UNC in the final minute to dash the Tar Heels’ comeback bid.
Michigan State has been in close first halves in each of its two tournament games before its talent was too much for the opposition. But if the Spartans want to beat the Rebels, they’ll have to match the Rebels’ intensity from the start. Mississippi has built insurmountable leads early in its two tournament games and it’ll look to do it again in setting the tone vs. the Spartans.
The Rebels are hot and their run continues to set up a matchup against SEC rival Auburn in the Elite Eight.
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March Madness Sweet 16 predictions: East Region
- Duke (1) over Arizona (4)
- Alabama (2) over BYU (6)
Analysis: You like high-scoring games? You don’t want to miss the Sweet 16 in the East Region. The four teams left are among the top 25 scoring teams in the country with Alabama No. 1, Duke No. 12, Arizona No. 17 and BYU No. 25.
Now that we’ve determined that you should take the overs for the point totals for both games, let’s get to the picks.
Duke has been the most complete team in the tournament by cruising to easy victories — a 44-point thrashing in the first round and a 13-point win over Baylor in a game that wasn’t even that close. Freshman phenom Cooper Flagg has returned from his ankle injury without any setbacks. That’s great news for Duke fans and bad news for everyone else, including Arizona. The Wildcats can score but they don’t defend like the Blue Devils (top 10 scoring defense). This will be a high-scoring affair and Caleb Love will keep the Wildcats in the game but the Blue Devils get enough stops at the end.
Alabama and BYU is going to be a fun one as the two teams throw haymakers at each other all night. BYU junior Richie Saunders was special against Wisconsin in scoring 25 points and is scrappy on the offensive glass. BYU is far from a one-man team, though. The Cougars have several sharp-shooters and big men who can give anyone fits in the paint as they did in the 91-89 win over the Badgers. They won’t get pushed around by anyone. BYU has lost just once in over a month and that was to Houston and shouldn’t be taken lightly by anyone.
That includes No. 2-seeded Alabama. The Crimson Tide has their own special player in Mark Sears, a first-team All-SEC guard. He’ll rise to the occasion and get plenty of help from a deep bench to outscore the Cougars. Six players score in double figures and they’ll need everyone in this one. The Crimson Tide are motivated to get back to the Final Four for a second straight season, and Nate Oats’ team gets closer to that goal after outlasting BYU in a game that that could very well approach 200 total points.
The win will set up a grab-your-popcorn kind of Elite Eight game against No. 1 Duke.
March Madness Sweet 16 predictions: Midwest Region
- (2) Tennessee over (3) Kentucky
- (1) Houston over (4) Purdue
Analysis: Tennessee is making its 27th NCAA appearance without a Final Four. Will SEC rival Kentucky continue that drought? The Wildcats have already defeated the Volunteers twice. It’s hard to beat a team three teams in a season. It’s even harder to beat a team coached by Rick Barnes three times.
Kentucky, making its first Sweet 16 appearance in six years, will have the crowd advantage in Indianapolis, but Barnes has the better point guard in Zakai Zeigler and Chaz Lanier has provided the instant offense top teams need to win at tournament time. Mark Pope’s honeymoon run in his first year at his alma mater ends in the regional semifinals.
Purdue was supposed to have problems with High Point in the first round and McNeese in the second, but the Boilermakers won both games with relative ease. They didn’t have to play fifth-seeded Clemson after the Tigers lost to McNeese. They even have a virtual home game in Indianapolis. All they have to do is defeat top-seeded Houston.
The Cougars are probably the best overall defensive team in the country, ranking No. 1 in points per game allowed.
And no they aren’t BYU on offense, but three players shoot over 40% from the three-point arc and the Cougars average less than 10 turnovers per game.
Braden Smith has often carried Purdue to victories this season and playing in Indianapolis gives the Boilermakers a legitimate chance at an upset, but Houston’s rotation of players on the Big Ten player of the year and its physical style of play is likely to make the difference in a game that has the makings of a true grinder.
March Madness Sweet 16 predictions: West Region
- (1) Florida over (4) Maryland
- (10) Arkansas over (3) Texas Tech
Analysis: It’s a sign of the super-conference times when two SEC schools, a Big 12 school and a Big Ten school are playing for the West Region’s Final Four bid in San Francisco.
Though there were very few entertaining games during the first four days of the NCAA tournament, Florida and Maryland both survived two of the close calls in the second round Sunday. Maryland’s Derik Queen provided the only buzzer-beater of the first four days, when his slick, driving bank shot eliminated 12th-seeded Colorado State, the only true hope for a Cinderella left in the tournament.
The Gators, a trendy pick to win the tournament, were often outplayed by Connecticut and survived a scare from the two-time defending champion.
While Maryland has one of the better front-court tandems remaining in Queen and Julian Reese, Florida’s guards were the difference in the win over the Huskies. The Gators will likely have the best player on the floor in Walter Clayton Jr., but the key matchup is likely Queen against Florida forward Alex Condon. if Condon is able to make Queen work for his offense, the Gators’ overall depth will likely help Florida prevail.
Third-seeded Texas Tech gets to play the lone double-digit seed remaining in the tournament, but Arkansas is battle-tested in the loaded SEC and coached by John Calipari.
With wins over Bill Self and Rick Pitino, Calipari has already defeated the other two Hall of Fame coaches in the West bracket. The Razorbacks don’t shoot well but they do have the athleticism to make it difficult for JT Toppin to going offensively. I have a hunch the Razorbacks will pull a third straight upset.
March Madness Sweet 16 bracket
Here is the Sweet 16 bracket:
Sweet 16 schedule: NCAA tournament 2025, start times, TV
All times CT
Thursday, March 27
- 6:09 p.m.: No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 6 BYU (Newark) | CBS
- 6:39 p.m.: No. 1 Florida vs. No. 4 Maryland (San Francisco) | TBS/truTV
- 8:39 p.m.: No. 1 Duke vs. No. 4 Arizona (Newark) | CBS
- 9:09 p.m.: No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 10 Arkansas (San Francisco) | TBS/truTV
Friday, March 28
- 6:09 p.m.: No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 6 Mississippi (Atlanta) | CBS
- 6:39 p.m.: No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 3 Kentucky (Indianapolis) | TBS/truTV
- 8:39 p.m.: No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 5 Michigan (Atlanta) | CBS
- 9:09 p.m.: No. 1 Houston vs. No. 4 Purdue (Indianapolis) | TBS/truTV
