I continue the series qualifying the key data from my recently published articles in the VSiN March Mania Betting Guide for the Final 4 Round, a pair of games that figure to be epic, as we have seen all four #1 seeds reach college basketball’s biggest stage.
Note that all the trend records, unless noted, are as of heading into this year’s tournament.
From the “Navigating the Tournament Round by Round” article in the guide, here are the trends and qualifying games for the Final 4 round:
Unfortunately, there are no “Prior tournament game reactionary systems” of 60% or better that qualify for the Saturday games.
• In the Final Four Round, outright winning teams own a record of 37-7-2 ATS (84.1%) since 2001, although most recently, San Diego State did beat Florida Atlantic in a 2023 clash without covering.
This trend favors both outright winners ATS
• Final Four #1 seeds are 19-5 SU and 14-9-1 ATS (60.9%) since 2001 when not matched against another #1 seed. This was 2-0 SU and ATS last year with UConn and Purdue each winning by double-digits.
All four teams playing are #1 seeds
• Final Four favorites of 5 points or more are on a solid surge of 21-3 SU and 15-8-1 ATS (65.2%) over the last 25 years.
This trend favors DUKE -5.5
• ACC teams have been most successful in the Final Four Round, going 11-7 SU and 10-8 ATS (55.6%) since ’01, including 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS when favored.
This trend favors DUKE -5.5
• On totals, the last seven Final Four games that had posted numbers of 130 or less went Under, producing just 112.2 combined PPG on average. In all other games, totals are 24-17-2 Over (58.5%) in the Final Four since 1999.
This trend favors Over the total in Duke-Houston 136.5 and Florida-Auburn 159.5
• Bettors have been sharp in moving lines for the Final Four games since 2015, going 12-1 SU and 8-5 ATS (61.5%) in games that have seen the point spread shift off the opener.
This trend favors DUKE -5.5 and AUBURN +2.5 as of Wednesday, 4/2
• Eight of the last 10 Final Four games that have seen an opening total moved downward through the week until tip-off have ended up going Over the total (80%).
This trend favors Over the total in both Duke-Houston 136.5 and Florida-Auburn 159.5
From the “Handicapping the tournament by conferences” article, here are the conference trends that will be applicable for the Final 4 Round games on Saturday:
Teams in the field/ matchup
DUKE (East #1) vs. Houston-Big 12
Trends
– Over the last three NCAA tournaments, the ACC boasts a record of 33-15 SU and ATS (68.8%).
This trend favors DUKE -5.5
– ACC teams have been most successful in the Final Four Round, going 11-5 SU and 10-6 ATS (62.5%) since 2001. However, NC State did lose last year.
This trend favors DUKE -5.5
– ACC teams are on a current surge of 11-4 SU and 13-2 ATS (86.7%) in the NCAAs versus Big 12 foes, including 3-0 SU and ATS last year. In addition, underdogs are on an impressive 9-9 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) surge in the matchup.
The first trend favors DUKE -5.5, the underdog trend goes against DUKE -5.5
Teams in the field/ matchup
HOUSTON (Midwest #1) vs. Duke-ACC
Trends
– Big 12 teams have lost 59 of their 74 NCAA tourney games since 2000 as underdogs of 2.5 points or more and are 30-43-1 ATS (41.1%) in those games.
This trend goes against HOUSTON +5.5
Teams in the field/First matchup
AUBURN (South #1) vs. Florida-SEC
FLORIDA (West #1) vs. Auburn-SEC
Trends
– Underdogs are 48-32 ATS (60%) in the last 80 SEC NCAA tourney games overall, but they were just 5-11 ATS last year.
The long-running trend favors AUBURN +2.5
– As pick ’ems or small favorites of 5 points or less, SEC teams are an ugly 45-51 SU and 37-55-4 ATS (40.2%) in the NCAAs since 1999.
This trend goes against FLORIDA -2.5
– There have been two recent SEC vs. SEC matchups in the NCAA tournament, both in Elite Eight games. They were in 2017 and 2019, and favorites lost both games outright and ATS.
This trend favors AUBURN +2.5
Here are the Final Four teams’ recent history in this round, plus any relevant head-to-head information:
(679) DUKE vs. (680) HOUSTON
* The Duke-Houston game on Saturday is a rematch from a Sweet 16 game in last year’s tournament, won by the Blue Devils (+4.5), 54-51. That is the only recent head-to-head matchup.
* Houston has only played in one recent Final Four game, that being in 2021, when the Cougars (+5) lost to Baylor 78-59.
* Duke has played in five Final Four games since 2001, going 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. However, they lost their most recent such contest in 2022. Interestingly, all five of those Duke Final Four games went Over the total, with the Blue Devils scoring 81.8 PPG.
(681) FLORIDA vs. (682) AUBURN
* Florida and Auburn obviously have a rich head-to-head history as SEC rivals. Currently, Florida holds a 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS edge in the last eight. Also, Under the total is 9-2 in the last 11, but the early February matchup at Auburn was a 90-81 decision on a 155.5 total. The Gators (+11) won that game in a big upset.
* Auburn’s only recent Final Four appearance came in 2019 and resulted in a dramatic 63-62 loss to Virginia.
* Florida has been in four Final Four games since 2000, going 3-1 SU and ATS. However, the Gators’ most recent appearance was a 63-53 loss to UConn in 2014.
* There have been eight NCAA tournament games since 2017 matching conference opponents. In those games, favorites are 4-4 SU but just 2-2 ATS. Those favored by 7 points or less are just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS.
