March Madness games today: Analyzing Thursday’s Sweet 16 men’s NCAA Tournament matchups

With the first week of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament in the books, we now turn our attention to the Sweet 16 as teams can see the Final Four at the end of the tunnel but still need two more wins.

The first half of the remaining teams take the court Thursday, with action in Newark, New Jersey, and San Francisco. Naturally, the Southeastern Conference is well represented with three of its seven round-of-16 entries in action. The evening’s lineup also features three of the four surviving Big 12 squads, including two of the conference’s recent editions. The lone ACC contender is also on the docket, as well as one of its former league rivals now representing the Big Ten.

Here’s a look at the four matchups set for Thursday night:

No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 6 Brigham Young

Time/TV: 7:09 p.m. ET, CBS

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Sporting events don’t always go according to script, of course, but the probability of this being among the highest scoring contests of the entire tournament is undeniable. The Crimson Tide average 90.8 points a game but give up 81. The Cougars will be more than happy to match Alabama’s fast tempo. The Tide’s veteran floor leader Mark Sears has his field-goal percentage back above 40% for the season, but his driving ability to take advantage of the team’s spacing helps him find points even when his long-range game is off. Freshman sensation Labaron Philon and key reserve Chris Youngblood have been hot of late as well. The Cougars primary weapon is wingman Richie Saunders, but they can also substitute freely to keep people fresh. There will be a lot of possessions, but the battle to control the boards, led by BYU’s Keba Keita and the Tide’s Grant Nelson, will still be critical.

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No. 1 Florida vs. No. 4 Maryland

Time/TV: 7:39 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV

For what it’s worth, this pairing guarantees there will be a team with a reptilian mascot in the round of eight. The Gators have won 14 of their last 15, a run that includes the SEC tournament title, though they had to work harder than the other top seeds in the second round to dispatch two-time defending champ Connecticut. The Terrapins handled all challengers not from the state of Michigan down the stretch but will need to be at their best here to keep that streak going. Florida has a number of scoring options in its deep backcourt, but the ball will usually be in the hands of Walter Clayton Jr. when a big bucket is needed. The same is true of Maryland big man Derik Queen, owner of the tournament’s first and thus far only buzzer-beater. Fellow Terrapins Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Rodney Rice can get hot from the 3-point arc, but things get dicey for Maryland should any starter encounter foul trouble. The Terps have also struggled on the glass, and the Gators enjoy a rebounding margin of plus-8 per game with Alex Condon and Reuben Chinyelu leading the way.

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 4 Arizona

Time/TV: 9:39 p.m. ET, CBS

The Newark nightcap features the Blue Devils, whose dominance in March thus far has made them a strong title favorite for oddsmakers. Their next challenger is a team they’ve already beaten once this season, though it was seemingly ages ago in November. The Wildcats played much better once the Big 12 campaign rolled around, and Tobe Awaka has become a much more reliable presence on the boards. But even with known Duke killer Caleb Love leading a strong group of perimeter shooters for Arizona, the Blue Devils will still enjoy a considerable size advantage across the entire lineup. If the Wildcats can’t get open 3-point looks, they aren’t likely to have any more luck challenging Khaman Maluach at the rim. Incidentally, Cooper Flagg was just getting used to the college game and still put up 24 points at Arizona, and the recent hot shooting of Tyrese Proctor gives the Wildcats even more to worry about.

No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 10 Arkansas

Time/TV: 10:09 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV

The evening finishes in San Francisco with this pairing that in a past life would have been a Southwest Conference clash. More recently, these schools met in the second round of the 2021 tournament with Arkansas winning a 68-66 squeaker, though both programs were under different management at the time. This year’s Razorbacks, of course, are helmed by John Calipari, a reason their high seed shouldn’t be taken at face value. It took some time for Arkansas to find its footing with guys in and out of the lineup due to injuries, but with nine players averaging between 5.8 and 15.6 points, it’s fair to say the big shot could come from anyone. The Red Raiders aren’t at full strength themselves with third-leading scorer Chance McMillian yet to appear in the tournament, though his health is improving. JT Toppin is hard to keep out of the lane, and Elijah Hawkins has been terrific running the point.

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