After months of waiting, March Madness is finally here.
The First Four is already providing plenty of drama for college basketball fans, but that’s merely an appetizer to the main course that starts on Thursday and picks up on Friday when both the men’s and women’s tournaments will be in full swing.
So what can we expect over the next three weeks? Our experts weigh in with their predictions for which No. 1 seeds are the most vulnerable, which teams are the best Cinderella picks, Final Four teams, national championship winners and more.
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Be unusually cautious about projecting too many non-No. 1 seeds to make this year’s Final Four
This could be a year when the Goliaths flex their muscles, the giants stomp the giant slayers.
The 2025 NCAA tournament might have the strongest quartet of No. 1 seeds in recent history. By the numbers, Duke, Florida, Auburn and Houston each have adjusted efficiency margins of 35 or more, according to college basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy. That’s the number of points they would be expected to outscore the average Division I opponent by over 100 possessions. In no other year has more than one team finished the season above 35. This year, only the four No. 1 seeds and Tennessee are above 30.
Anecdotal evidence corroborates what the numbers are suggesting. A Duke team with three projected lottery picks and an array of capable veterans has obliterated everything in its path for weeks. Houston won the always rugged Big 12 by four games and then backed that up by claiming the conference tournament crown. Auburn was on its way to a historic regular season before backsliding a bit the past two weeks. Florida stormed to the SEC tournament title last weekend and appears to be peaking in March.
The only other time that all four men’s No. 1 seeds advanced to the national semifinals, the Final Four was in San Antonio just like it is this year.
Could this be a repeat of 2008? Perhaps, but don’t count on it. It’s called March Madness for a reason. Upsets happen.
But expect a No. 1 seed to be crowned national champion for the 26th time since 1985. This isn’t the year for a dark horse to come out of nowhere and cut down the nets. –Jeff Eisenberg
Predictions for the 2025 NCAA men’s tournament. (Grant Thomas/Yahoo Sports)
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It’s shaping up to be a March unlike any other over the past decade. The field of legitimate contenders is deep and the crop of No. 2 seeds could become the rare non-No. 1 seed to win it all. No team in the field has fewer than two losses, and many of the top seeds have already played each other with results that resemble an evidence map.
South Carolina beat TCU, which beat Notre Dame, which beat Connecticut, which bested South Carolina by an astonishing 29 points. Duke lost to South Carolina, which lost to UCLA, which lost to USC, which lost to Notre Dame, which petered out to Duke in an uninspiring ACC tournament semifinal. No wonder there have been four teams ranked No. 1 in the AP Top 25 this season. It changed three times in the past month alone. Expecting Madness in the women’s bracket is becoming a norm.
Far less murky is who will be the tournament’s superstars without Iowa’s Caitlin Clark, because UConn senior Paige Bueckers and USC sophomore JuJu Watkins are ready for their closeups. Bueckers, who has never missed a Final Four, is poised to re-emerge on fans’ radars ahead of the WNBA Draft, where she’s the projected No. 1 pick next month. She has one final shot at a national title that would level her up with UConn greats in what would be the storybook ending.
Watkins, a walking bucket who could drop 50 points this first weekend, is the face of the game for at least two more years. Her ability to hit buckets with ease and take over games will bring fans into a trance that will keep the women’s game on its steep upward climb. –Cassandra Negley
Predictions for the 2025 NCAA women’s tournament. (Grant Thomas/Yahoo Sports)
