The men’s college basketball season began on Nov. 4 with Kansas atop the preseason AP poll and UConn, Baylor and North Carolina close behind.
Five months later, none of those schools are even ranked, nor are they expected to survive the NCAA tournament’s opening weekend.
That turmoil at the top of the sport is one of the many ways this season has defied prediction. A team that starts four Division II transfers won 30 games. A team that starts two projected top-five NBA Draft picks won half that many. A conference best known for its football prowess sent a record 14 teams to the NCAA tournament. A conference synonymous with basketball for decades was lucky to get four NCAA bids.
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Now here comes the most famously unpredictable event in American sports to add to the chaos. Duke leads our annual 1-68 ranking of national championship contenders — grouped into eight tiers and ordered from most to least likely to snip the nets in San Antonio on the second Monday in April. Here’s the full list, and enjoy the NCAA tournament mayhem:
1. Duke (31-3) | E1 vs. American/Mount St. Mary’s
This is the best Duke team in a decade, better than the 32-win Zion Williamson-R.J. Barrett juggernaut, better than the Paolo Banchero-led group that took Mike Krzyzewski to one last Final Four. The Blue Devils are challenging the narrative that a freshman-driven team cannot win a national title in the era of 24-year-old COVID seniors and grad transfers.
While the ACC was way down this season, Duke bulldozed its way to a league title. The Blue Devils outscored their 20 league opponents this season by an ACC-record 434 points. That’s the largest scoring differential in league play by a power-conference team since 1953-54 Kentucky, per Stathead Basketball.
It was more of the same in the ACC tournament, even after Duke lost national player of the year favorite and presumptive No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg to a sprained left ankle. Kon Knueppel took over the role of primary shot creator in Flagg’s absence, leading the Blue Devils past North Carolina and Louisville and demonstrating why he too should be selected in the top 10 picks of this year’s draft.
The question now is whether Flagg’s ankle will fully heal by the time Duke encounters stronger competition than it faced in the ACC. If so, even in a year when college basketball’s top tier is historically strong, the Blue Devils are the team to beat.
2. Florida (30-4) | W1 vs. Norfolk State
Todd Golden suspected his team could contend for a national title when he finished assembling the roster, but the Florida coach wasn’t certain until early January when the Gators demolished then-No. 1 Tennessee by 30 points.
“That kind of gave us an idea of what our ceiling could be this year,” Golden said.
Golden has only grown more confident since then because of how maturely Florida has handled success. The Gators, Golden says, still view themselves as underdogs even after winning 30 games, storming to the SEC tournament title and leaving no doubt about their worthiness of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Florida boasts multiple ball handlers, plenty of shooting and a big, physical frontcourt. The Gators come at teams in waves. As Golden put it after winning the SEC tournament, “When we’re playing like this, I think we are the best team in America.”
3. Auburn (28-5) | S1 vs. Saint Francis/Alabama State
Auburn earned the NCAA tournament’s No. 1 overall seed because of its unrivaled season-long body of work, but the way the Tigers finished the season is concerning. They dropped three of their last four games, raising concern that they may have peaked too early.
It started with the ultimate trap game at Texas A&M two days after Auburn clinched the outright SEC title. Then came a two-point overtime loss to Alabama and an SEC semifinal loss to Tennessee. A hard-fought 62-57 victory over Ole Miss in the SEC quarterfinals was the lone positive result.
When asked on Saturday his level of concern about how the Tigers were playing, a scowling Bruce Pearl scoffed at the question. “We lost to Alabama, Tennessee, at Texas A&M,” he said before getting sarcastic. “Yeah, we’re panicked.”
Pearl can downplay it all he wants, but Auburn will need to recapture its previous form to make the program’s second Final Four, let alone win a national title. That means better free throw shooting, more attention to detail on defense and less reliance offensively on Johni Broome. The Tigers have gotten way too one-dimensional offensively of late as Tahaad Pettiford and Chad Baker-Mazara have vanished for long stretches.
4. Houston (30-4) | MW1 vs. SIU-Edwardsville
For Houston, it’s the ultimate what-if. Last March, a 32-win Houston team led fourth-seeded Duke 16-10 early in their Sweet 16 matchup when Cougars star Jamal Shead sprained his ankle and didn’t return. Houston only tallied 35 points the rest of the game and lost 54-51.
Shead has moved on to the NBA, but the team that Kelvin Sampson brought back has picked up where last year’s left off. They won the Big 12 regular-season title by an extraordinary four games and backed that up by capturing the league tournament crown. L.J. Cryer has been a dependable scoring threat for them all season. Milos Uzan has become another one.
As usual, Houston is also relentless on defense. Kelvin Sampson’s team held opponents to 50 points or fewer a national-best nine times this season.
5. Alabama (25-8) | E2 vs. Robert Morris
Alabama’s loss to Florida in the SEC semifinals may have been the ultimate double whammy. Grant Nelson, the Tide’s second-leading scorer and leading rebounder, left the game with a knee injury and did not return.
Head coach Nate Oats told reporters after the game that he didn’t think it’s “anything with an ACL or something like that” but he also wasn’t sure exactly what the injury was. Nelson was set to see a knee specialist on Monday.
“Hopefully we get him back for the first round in the NCAA tournament,” Oats said.
The severity of Nelson’s injury will be a key determining factor in how big a threat Alabama is to win the national title or even to advance out of the East region to San Antonio. At full strength, the Tide are an explosive and efficient offensive team whose 3-point barrages typically cover up their warts on the defensive end.
6. Tennessee (27-7) | MW2 vs. Wofford
Twenty-seven times in program history, Tennessee has made the NCAA tournament. Ten times, the Vols have reached the Sweet 16. Twice, they’ve advanced to an Elite Eight. Never once has this proud upper-echelon SEC program celebrated a Final Four.
Tennessee ranks fourth on the list of programs with the most NCAA tournament appearances without a Final Four appearance. Only BYU (32), Xavier (30) and Missouri (29) have come up short more often than the Vols (27).
Two years ago, Tennessee ousted Duke in the second round but fell to Florida Atlantic in the Sweet 16. Last year, Dalton Knecht guided the Vols to the Elite Eight, where they ran into Zach Edey and Purdue. This March, Tennessee is back to try again
Can North Florida transfer Chaz Lanier thrive as a go-to scorer late in close games on an NCAA tournament stage? Can Tennessee string together enough good outside shooting performances to advance deep into a single-elimination tournament? The Vols are capable of their program’s first-ever Final Four run, but their propensity to go cold from the field also makes them a potential upset candidate.
7. St. John’s (30-4) | W2 vs. Omaha
8. Michigan State (27-6) | S2 vs. Bryant
To make it to San Antonio, either St. John’s or Michigan State would have to buck history. A top-two NCAA tournament seed has never made a Final Four if they began the year outside the preseason AP Top 25, according to research from Ken Pomeroy.
That streak could end in a couple weeks the way that St. John’s and Michigan State closed out the regular season.
The foundation of Rick Pitino’s success at St. John’s this season is championship-level defense that forces turnovers, protects the rim and minimizes second-chance opportunities. How far the Johnnies go in this NCAA tournament will depend whether a team ranked 338th in the country in 3-point shooting can knock down enough shots.
Michigan State is a vintage Tom Izzo team that defends relentlessly and bludgeons opponents on the glass. Izzo unleashing freshman guard Jase Richardson over the second half of the season has helped the Spartans blossom from good to elite.
9. Texas Tech (25-8) | W3 vs. UNC Wilmington
10. Maryland (25-8) | W4 vs. Grand Canyon
Eagle-eyed readers will have noticed that Maryland is the fourth West region team to have cracked the top 10 in this list. The West is loaded, maybe more than any other region.
Before Maryland has the luxury of worrying about the likes of Florida, St. John’s or Texas Tech, it first has to survive some potentially tricky opening-weekend matchups. Grand Canyon has an elite isolation scorer and the size to protect the rim. Memphis has an elite isolation scorer and the size to protect the rim. And Colorado State has been one the hottest teams in the country for two months.
That’s a tough path, but then again those teams have to deal with Derik Queen and the rest of the Crab Five too.
11. Wisconsin (26-9) | E3 vs. Wisconsin
12. Arizona (22-12) | E4 vs. Akron
13. Kentucky (22-11) | MW3 vs. Troy
[Region-by-region breakdowns: South | East | West | Midwest]
14. Gonzaga (25-8) | MW8 vs. Georgia
Even though Gonzaga hasn’t performed up to the program’s recent standards this season, this is not the No. 8 seed anyone wanted to draw. The Zags are a top-10 team in every major predictive metric. They appear to be peaking entering March. Three of their eight losses came in overtime. The other five were by a combined 24 points.
Gonzaga enters March having made nine straight Sweet 16s, matching North Carolina (1985-1993) and Duke (1998-2006) for the longest streaks since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams. Ryan Nembhard, Graham Ike and their teammates would have to survive Georgia and most likely topple Houston to extend that streak another year.
Unlikely …
But not impossible.
Dusty May and the Michigan Wolverines didn’t seem to get rewarded for winning the Big Ten championship game on Sunday afternoon. (Michael Reaves via Getty Images)
15. Michigan (25-9) | S5 vs. UC San Diego
Michigan had more reason to complain on Selection Sunday than any other team that made the NCAA tournament field.
It wasn’t just that the committee ignored the Big Ten tournament and awarded the Wolverines a lesser seed than the three teams they had just defeated. It was also that the committee pitted Michigan against a dangerous 12 seed capable of exposing the Wolverines’ biggest weakness.
Michigan turns the ball over roughly 1 in 5 possessions, a turnover percentage that ranks 328th in the nation, per Ken Pomeroy. Seven-footers Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf have carried the offense but have struggled to deal with traps and double teams, exacerbating the Wolverines’ season-long turnover issues.
UCSD is among the leaders nationally in percentage of turnovers forced and in turnover margin. Expect the Tritons to aggressively test Michigan, especially notorious pickpockets Hayden Gray and Chris Howell.
16. Texas A&M (22-10) | S4 vs. Yale
17. Iowa State (24-9) | S3 vs. Lipscomb
Only minutes after his team’s No. 3 seed in the South region was secure, Iowa State coach TJ Otzelberger revealed Sunday evening that the Cyclones will be without one of their top players for the entirety of the NCAA tournament. Keshon Gilbert, Iowa State’s second-leading scorer, had missed four of the team’s previous seven games with a groin injury.
With a healthy Gilbert and fellow perimeter standouts Curtis Jones and Tamin Lipsey, Iowa State emerged as a potential national title contender during the first half of the season. The Cyclones were once 15-1 and ranked in the top five, their lone loss coming by two against future No. 1 overall seed Auburn.
Iowa State hasn’t collapsed down the stretch, but injuries to Gilbert and other key players have taken their toll. The Cyclones went just 7-7 during the second half of the season and have struggled at times offensively, a big reason why they’re perceived as one of the more vulnerable top-three seeds and unlikely to make a deep NCAA tournament run.
18. Clemson (27-6) | MW5 vs. McNeese
19. Illinois (21-12) | MW6 vs. Texas/Xavier
20. BYU (24-9) | E6 vs. VCU
Only a month ago, BYU was on the fringes of the NCAA tournament bubble. The Cougars had followed an underwhelming non-conference performance with a 6-6 start to Big 12 play. They entered the second week of February with one win over an NCAA tournament-caliber opponent and four losses against teams who didn’t sniff the field of 68.
Since then BYU has caught fire, reeling off nine wins in 10 games. The lone loss came against juggernaut Houston in Friday’s Big 12 semifinals. That streak rocketed BYU from outside most bracket projections to a No. 6 seed. Among the teams that it beat: Iowa State, Kansas, Arizona and West Virginia.
BYU is one of a handful of elite offensive teams in the East region. Richie Saunders, Egor Demin and the rest of BYU’s guards will be tested in the opening round by a VCU team that prides itself on its defense.
21. Oregon (24-9) | E5 vs. Liberty
22. Louisville (27-7) | S8 vs. Creighton
23. Missouri (22-11) | W6 vs. Drake
Drake will be a trendy pick in office pools, but Missouri can pose problems for the Bulldogs that opponents in the Missouri Valley could not. The Tigers can throw Anthony Robinson and an array of other strong, athletic point-of-attack defenders at Drake star Bennett Stirtz.
How does Stirtz handle that? Can he still create separation and get to the rim? That will decide this game and foreshadow Stirtz’s chances of carving out a role in the NBA.
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24. Purdue (22-11) | MW4 vs. High Point
Purdue boasts an elite offense headlined by the most dynamic point guard in the country, but not even Braden Smith abusing all sorts of ball-screen coverages may be enough to hide his team’s defensive weaknesses. The Boilermakers are struggling to find a way to protect the rim without a traditional rim protector.
With Zach Edey gone to the NBA and 7-foot-4 freshman Daniel Jacobsen lost to a broken leg, Purdue lacks a center capable of altering shots in the paint or deterring opposing players from attempting them. Opponents are shooting a blistering 56.4% from inside the 3-point arc against the Boilermakers, 350th nationally per KenPom.
Exacerbating Purdue’s already inadequate rim protection is the fact that Smith and fellow guard Fletcher Loyer aren’t exactly known for their on-ball defense. The Boilermakers might be able to paper over this issue against High Point, but this team is too flawed defensively for a deep NCAA tournament run.
25. Creighton (24-10) | S9 vs. Louisville
26. UConn (23-10) | W8 vs. Oklahoma
UConn’s season tipped off more than four months ago with Dan Hurley complaining about the two-time reigning national champs being ranked only No. 3 in the AP poll. Then the Huskies went to Maui and dropped three games in three days. Then they hit another rough patch early in conference play and fell out of the AP Top 25 altogether.
This is nowhere near as formidable a UConn team as the previous two — especially defensively — but the back-to-back national champions are still a scary draw as a No. 8 seed. They have an array of shooters, a sharp coaching staff and the unfailing belief that this program can never be counted out in the NCAA tournament.
As Hurley said recently, “It’s March, and this is when we play our best at UConn.”
27. Memphis (29-5) | W5 vs. Colorado State
Why is 12th-seeded Colorado State a 2.5-point favorite over Memphis? A big reason is that the Tigers could be without one of their key players. Guard Tyrese Hunter wore a walking boot during the AAC tournament and needed help climbing the ladder to snip a piece of the net after the title game.
Really special moment after tonight’s Tigers win.
Coaches helped Tyrese Hunter get up the ladder and cut off a piece of the net. One of the leaders of this squad getting the moment he deserves. @WMCActionNews5 pic.twitter.com/PhGWTARKeZ
— Griffin S. DeMarrais (@GDeMarraisTV) March 17, 2025
28. Kansas (21-12) | W7 vs. Arkansas
A Kansas team ranked No. 1 before the season tumbled out of the AP Top 25 in February and has not returned. The reinforcements that Bill Self brought in via the transfer portal have been disappointments with the exception of Zeke Mayo. Kansas has never been worse than a No. 4 seed in the NCAA tournament under Self. This year, the Jayhawks were fortunate to land a No. 7 seed.
Now this group of Jayhawks gets one final chance to rewrite their legacy. There’s enough talent and experience for Kansas to make a run, but the pieces have never seemed to properly fit together.
29. Marquette (23-10) | S7 vs. New Mexico
The first-round scoring duel between playmaking guards Kam Jones and Donovan Dent will be all kinds of fun.
Kam Jones back to back creative finishes, never rushed for a millisecond.
Kam has shot 66% at the rim on, incredibly, 581 attempts in his career. Likely unprecedented among guards in the last decade. @mikegrib8 @DraftPow others come to mind?
Modern McConnell with range? Maybe. pic.twitter.com/rAFRVpB2Kp
— Chucking Darts NBA & Draft Podcast (@ChuckingDarts) March 15, 2025
30. Ole Miss (22-11) | S6 vs. North Carolina/San Diego State
31. Saint Mary’s (28-5) | E7 vs. Vanderbilt
32. UCLA (22-10) | MW7 vs. Utah State
33. UCSD (30-4) | S12 vs. Michigan
In its first year of NCAA tournament eligibility since transitioning from Division II, UC San Diego has produced a historic season. The Tritons are in the top 40 in the major predictive metrics after winning 30 games, pulling an upset at Utah State in non-league play and sweeping the Big West regular-season and tournament titles.
34. North Carolina (22-13) | S11 vs. San Diego State (First Four)
Lost amid all the talk of whether North Carolina deserved its NCAA bid is the fact that the Tar Heels have a real chance to advance a round or two. The part of the draw they landed in is ripe for a double-digit seed to do some damage, whether that’s North Carolina or San Diego State.
If the criticism and lawsuits light a fire under North Carolina … watch out!
35. VCU (28-6) | E11 vs. BYU
Here’s a stat, courtesy of The Virginian-Pilot’s David Teel, that exemplifies VCU’s remarkable culture and consistency: Ryan Odom is the sixth straight coach to take VCU to the NCAA tournament, joining Jeff Capel, Anthony Grant, Shaka Smart, Will Wade and Mike Rhoades.
36. Mississippi State (21-12) | E8 vs. Baylor
37. Drake (30-3) | W11 vs. Missouri
When Drake hired Ben McCollum last spring, he brought along four starters from Northwest Missouri State. Those Division II transfers have fueled one of college basketball’s best stories so far this season as the Bulldogs toppled Vanderbilt, Kansas State and Miami in non-league play and swept the Valley regular-season and tournament titles.
Bennett Stirtz is Drake’s do-everything star and has averaged 19.1 points, 5.7 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game this season. (Mitchell Layton via Getty Images)
38. Colorado State (25-9) | W12 vs. Memphis
39. Baylor (19-14) | E9 vs. Mississippi State
40. Georgia (20-12) | MW9 vs. Gonzaga
41. Arkansas (20-13) | W10 vs. Kansas
42. New Mexico (26-7) | S10 vs. Marquette
43. Xavier (21-11) | MW11 vs. Texas (First Four)
44. San Diego State (21-9) | S11 vs. North Carolina (First Four)
This is far from the best San Diego State team of Brian Dutcher’s tenure, but don’t count out another NCAA tournament run from the Aztecs. They’re one of four teams all season that toppled Houston. They also own non-league wins over Creighton and UC San Diego. They won 14 Mountain West games, including a regular-season sweep of Boise State and home wins over Colorado State and New Mexico.
San Diego State’s section of the draw is favorable if it can survive a First Four matchup with North Carolina. Can the Aztecs take advantage?
45. Oklahoma (20-13) | W9 vs. UConn
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46. Utah State (26-7) | MW10 vs. UCLA
47. Vanderbilt (20-12) | E10 vs. Saint Mary’s
48. Texas (19-15) | MW11 vs. Xavier (First Four)
Rodney Terry’s job remains in jeopardy despite narrowly leading Texas to the NCAA tournament for a third straight year. The Longhorns have higher expectations than the First Four and athletic director Chris Del Conte has a history of swinging big.
49. Yale (22-7) | S13 vs. Texas A&M
Rebounding will be the key to Yale’s first-round upset hopes. Texas A&M makes up for its wayward perimeter shooting by bludgeoning opponents on the offensive glass and generating extra possessions. Yale has been an outstanding defensive rebounding team all season … but the Ivy League champs also haven’t faced anything quite like the strength and athleticism the Aggies will throw at them.
Nine years ago, Yale faced another rebounding powerhouse from the state of Texas and the outcome was this viral press conference moment.
Could history repeat itself this week?
50. Liberty (28-6) | E12 vs. Oregon
51. McNeese (27-6) | MW12 vs. Clemson
One of the can’t-miss games of the first round pits Will Wade against his alma mater. Wade told reporters Sunday that he still follows the Clemson football program very closely.
“We don’t practice when they play football,” Wade said with a laugh.
52. Grand Canyon (26-7) | W13 vs. Maryland
Maryland is a popular Final Four dark horse, but a Grand Canyon team loaded with high-major size and talent is a difficult first-round matchup for the Terrapins. Tyon-Grant Foster is a big-time scorer capable of going off for 25-plus and getting opponents in foul trouble. That’s a problem for a Maryland team heavily reliant on its “Crab 5” starting lineup.
53. High Point (29-5) | MW13 vs. Purdue
High Point had a larger, more enthusiastic crowd for the selection show than a lot of teams get for big games. The Panthers, like all the 13 seeds in this bracket, are not an easy draw.
54. Akron (28-6) | E13 vs. Arizona
55. Lipscomb (25-9) | S14 vs. Iowa State
56. Troy (23-10) | MW14 vs. Kentucky
57. UNCW (27-7) | W14 vs. Texas Tech
58. Robert Morris (26-8) | E15 vs. Alabama
59. Bryant (23-11) S15 vs. Michigan State
This is not your average 15 seed. Bryant plays lightning-fast, starts five players 6-foot-6 or taller and has two former high-major players leading the team in scoring. St. John’s transfer Rafael Pinzon and onetime top-40 recruit Earl Timberlake will be a handful for Michigan State.
60. Montana (25-9) | E14 vs. Wisconsin
61. Wofford (19-15) | MW15 vs. Tennessee
America, get ready to fall in love with Wofford center Kyler Filewich. The SoCon tournament MVP shoots all his foul shots granny style despite, uh, modest success. He has made 31.8% of his foul shots this season.
62. Norfolk State (24-10) | W16 vs. Florida
A 16-versus-1 upset is especially unlikely this year given the unusual strength of the top teams, but Norfolk State is the team best equipped to do it. The MEAC champs beat High Point and James Madison during non-conference play, didn’t get embarrassed at Tennessee and had the ball down three in the final 90 seconds at Stanford.
“It is a travesty to get a 16 seed,” Norfolk State coach Robert Jones posted to X late Sunday night, “but we will be ready!”
63. Omaha (22-12) | W15 vs. St. John’s
There might not be a trash can left undemolished at the Amica Mutual Pavilion if Omaha pulls the upset and topples St. John’s.
Omaha getting picked eighth then winning the Summit League title while having this ridiculous, absurd, incredible tradition of beating the hell out of a trash can is everything that makes this ridiculous sport amazing. pic.twitter.com/WvLVxXddB8
— Rob Dauster (@RobDauster) March 2, 2025
64. SIU Edwardsville (22-11) | MW16 vs. Houston
SIU Edwardsville coach Brian Barone produced one of conference tournament week’s most heartwarming moments.
When he was hired six years ago, Barone placed scissors in a case above his team’s locker room door to serve as motivation for a program that was struggling to find its footing in Division I. Barone, at last, broke out those scissors to cut down the nets on March 8 after SIU Edwardsville won the Ohio Valley Conference title game.
SIUE coach Brian Barone put a framed pair of scissors above the locker room door six years ago. Now, the Cougars get to cut down the net and go dancing. “People didn’t think we were going to be able to do it … We’ve been waiting six years.”
March has arrived! Gotta love it! pic.twitter.com/arft6dJqeX
— Trevor Hass (@TrevorHass) March 9, 2025
65. American (22-12) | E16 vs. Mount St. Mary’s (First Four)
66. Mount St Mary’s (22-12) | E16 vs. American (First Four)
67. Alabama State (19-15) | S16 vs. Saint Francis (First Four)
68. Saint Francis (16-17) | S16 vs. Alabama State (First Four)
Saint Francis coach Rob Krimmel has spent 29 years at this tiny Pennsylvania school, first as a point guard, then as an assistant coach and now as a head coach. For the first time, he will experience the NCAA tournament.
