It’s the year of the No. 5 seed. The No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchups were the best of the bunch in the first weekend of NCAA tournament action, and three of the No. 5 seeds advanced to the Sweet 16. Alabama nearly made it a full sweep, falling short in a double-overtime thriller that will be difficult to top.
It’s been a chalky field so far. The No. 5 seeds are the lowest to reach the second weekend, making it the first time since at least 2017 that the Sweet 16 field has not featured a team seeded sixth or lower. A year ago, No. 7 Duke made it through. In 2023, it was No. 8 Ole Miss and No. 9 Miami. The last field to include double-digit seeds was in 2022, when Creighton and South Dakota State advanced. The closest comparable field is 2021, when three No. 6 seeds and three No. 5 seeds made it through during the fully neutral-site tournament held in San Antonio.
The good news is as the field filters out to the top-tier teams, fans are in for more closely contested matchups. Tobacco Road rivals North Carolina and Duke will meet for the first time on the NCAA tournament stage, for the third time this season. They split in the regular season. No. 5 seed Tennessee has a second shot at SEC foe Texas, which it came within a few possessions of upsetting. And Notre Dame can redeem its loss to TCU with an Elite Eight berth on the line.
The bad is the tournament will go on without JuJu Watkins, who tore the ACL in her right knee in the first quarter of USC’s second-round win over Mississippi State. Watkins missing the rest of the tournament significantly alters the national championship landscape. More than that, it’s a blow to the sport and the beauty of March.
Who will be cutting down the nets in Tampa in April? (Taylor Wilhelm/Yahoo Sports)
(In parentheses: region and seed | record | NET rank)
Up next: Oklahoma
Yes, Geno, we know you’re not exactly beating the Lakers. Still, the Huskies impressed in wins over Arkansas State and South Dakota State. They came into the tournament with one of the most loaded rosters in the game and delivered performances reminiscent of UConn’s vintage juggernauts. UConn is the only non-Power Four conference squad left in the field.
Paige Bueckers breaking out in her final game at Gampel Pavillion is what powered Connecticut up a spot in the power rankings. That leadership, experience and ability to take over in big games is nearly unmatched in this field. A potential Watkins-less USC team won’t be much resistance in the Elite Eight, should it go chalk.
Up next: Maryland
The Gamecocks’ closely contested second-round win over Indiana isn’t overly concerning, but it is a reminder every team has their weaknesses. This group, which is stellar at answering losses and poor play, will grow from it and, it always locks in defensively. The pathway to a Final Four is still favorable, while their bench and unrelenting waves of talent remain an unparalleled strength.
One player to watch is forward Chloe Kitts, the only starter to average double digits (10.1 ppg) and the team’s leading rebounder (7.9 rpg). A strong start from the SEC tournament Most Outstanding Player will set the necessary tone and allow for star reserves Joyce Edwards (13.2 ppg, 55 FG%) and MiLaysia Fulwiley (11.8 ppg, 1.6 spg) to open up a lead.
Up next: TCU
Not even another injury could derail Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish won their first two games against Stephen F. Austin and Michigan by an average of 36.5 points. The production extended beyond their star-laden backcourt to Liza Karlen and Liatu King. The transfers give Notre Dame depth they’ve been missing over an injury-riddled stretch in head coach Niele Ivey’s tenure.
Olivia Miles’ ankle injury sustained in the first game is still a concern. Extra days of treatment should help heading into the Sweet 16, but the competition levels up from here. The Fighting Irish can redeem their Thanksgiving week tournament loss to TCU to reach the Elite Eight. Their defense disappeared that week, allowing Sedona Prince and Hailey Van Lith to combine for 41 points while shooting 53%.
Up next: Tennessee
Texas answered the critiques of its offense as one of a record six teams to break the century scoring mark. Madison Booker led the offense with 20 points in each win. Like most of the teams on the winning end of blowouts, Texas received a nice boost from its bench in a welcome sight ahead of a long tournament.
This is a team centered on defense and that can take them deep into the bracket. A matchup with Tennessee, a team they beat by four points in January, could prove problematic, and either Notre Dame or TCU awaits in the Elite Eight. The Longhorns’ path is potentially the toughest of the No. 1 seeds. Still, they have the pieces to ride it out.
Up next: Ole Miss
Richmond created a second-round matchup problem for UCLA until the Bruins guards erupted out of the half, the Spiders ran out of gas and Lauren Betts became the first player in program history with a 30-point, 10-rebound game in the NCAA tournament.
The attention turns to Ole Miss, one of the best and stingiest defenses the Bruins have faced this season. LSU or NC State could also cause problems, and if the Bruins make it through, the dazzling Huskies could await in the Final Four.
Up next: NC State
The Tigers rode into the Sweet 16 with success beyond their big three, leading to a rise in Final Four potential. They’re one of the most dangerous teams in the tournament and they’re peaking at the right time. Plus, they love the underdog role. The first weekend was a reminder never to count out a Mulkey team in March.
Up next: LSU
Good luck shutting down NC State’s guards. The group lit it up from deep to score a program-best 15 3-pointers in a second-round wire-to-wire win over Michigan State.
One major reason to buy into the Wolfpack is their starters have three years of experience with each other and are coming off a Final Four berth a year ago. Freshman Tilda Trygger has to hold her own in the paint for the Wolfpack to keep dancing.
Up next: Texas
The best version of Tennessee showed up for the NCAA tournament after a crushing end to the regular season and SEC tournament. The Lady Vols forced turnovers against South Florida and Ohio State at a high clip (24 and 23 turnovers, respectively), an issue Buckeyes head coach Kevin McGuff said caused mental fatigue and frustration late.
If the Lady Vols keep hitting 3s early and often, the matchup with Texas, which averages around three 3s per game, is advantageous. Tennessee lost by four in Austin, Texas, in January. If the Lady Vols do go up on the No. 1 seed, they need to keep their foot on the gas. They’re known to blow large leads.
Up next: Notre Dame
Van Lith kept the offense humming in the win over Louisville, where she starred for three seasons. Drawing production from Agnes Emma-Nnopu and Donovyn Hunter, each of whom averaged around six points this season, is a positive sign moving forward.
Van Lith has the most tournament experience of any active player, reaching the Elite Eight all four seasons of her career. TCU is starting to feel like the transfer-fueled 2023 LSU title team peaking at the right time. But that regional is tough.
Up next: North Carolina
Duke’s defense is its bread and butter, and it came out stale in the second-round escape over Oregon. It can’t afford a lapse defensively or the late-game miscues it had in the win. Even considering the first-round domination, allowing Lehigh 25 points total, the Blue Devils’ performance instills the least confidence of the top-two seeds. They do receive a pass for being without freshman Toby Fournier (13.4 ppp, 53.2 FG%), whose absence due to illness underlined her importance.
Up next: UCLA
Never overlook Ole Miss in March. The Rebels have the defense to cause UCLA problems, but the offense isn’t always there. And they’ve struggled against the best. They’re 0-6 against teams that went on to secure No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the tournament field.
Up next: USC
Kansas State’s win over Kentucky was the game of the tournament until the 5-6 matchup between Maryland and Alabama. There was plenty of offense and little defense, hence a lower ranking, even though the road to the Elite Eight opened up late on Monday. If USC is without Watkins, the Wildcats have the size and shooting to break through.
Up next: Kansas State
Replacing an injured superstar at this stage of the season is a tall order for any team. But for USC to replace the contributions of JuJu Watkins? It’s almost unparalleled.
Watkins rarely leaves the court (35 minutes per game), ranks second in the nation in scoring average (24.6 ppg), leads the team in steals (2.3) and is a top-three contributor on the boards (7 rpg) and in blocks (1.8). The largest knock on USC this season was it would go quarters at a time without anyone except Watkins in the scoring column. The Trojans would become a Cinderella story if they made it past UConn.
Up next: Duke
North Carolina is a sneaky solid defensive team. The Duke-UNC rivalry games are often low-scoring, rough affairs, and this Sweet 16 game might come down to who makes the final defensive stop.
Up next: UConn
The Sooners made quick work of Cinderella-wannabe Iowa in the second round. Much of their early success came without leading scorer Raegan Beers. That’s unlikely to be the case against the Huskies in the Sweet 16.
Up next: South Carolina
Maryland won a second-round game for the ages, but there was nothing from it that elicited confidence with a matchup against South Carolina on deck. The Terps needed to climb back from 17 down to force overtime, and that’s not the kind of thing the Gamecocks defense allows. Certainly not in March.
