Updated: 10:08 AM ET March 23, 2025
As the first week of March Madness wraps up, it hasn’t really been mad at all. But that means we are due for an electric Sunday, when 8 second-round second-round games are on the schedule. The remaining Sweet 16 berths are at stake, so a lot is on the line.
Below is my mega parlay, and also check out our expert’s NCAA Tournament winner predictions.
Alabama –6.5 alternate spread (+100)
New Mexico +7.5 (-110)
Ole Miss ML (+190)
NCAA parlay odds: +1007
Alabama -6.5 alternate spread over Saint Mary’s (+100)
This contest in Cleveland marks an intriguing contrast in styles. Alabama ranks first nationally in pace of play (78.8 possessions per game); Saint Mary’s is No. 358 out of 364 teams in pace (65.6 possessions). Which team will dictate how this showdown is played? Well, normally the superior side is able to control things – and that would be ‘Bama. If the Crimson Tide are able to run their offense at anything close to their normal tempo, I expect them to turn this into a relatively high-scoring affair (which the Gaels certainly don’t want) and win by at least 7 points. The Tide kind of sleepwalked past Robert Morris on Friday, but that only means they should wake up and turn in a more convincing performance in round 2. Grant Nelson was able to play in the tournament opener, which was encouraging – and surprising. The star forward logged just 7 minutes off the bench, though, so he should still be well rested and presumably closer to 100 percent than he was earlier this week. Saint Mary’s has scored in the 50s in its last 2 outings dating back to the West Coast Conference Tournament; that’s not going to cut it against Alabama.
New Mexico +7.5 over Michigan State (-110)
New Mexico took care of Marquette in a 7-10 game on Friday and looked quite impressive in the process. Nelly Junior Joseph and Donovan Dent combined for 40 points, while CJ Noland and Tru Washington combined for another 23. This is not the Lobos’ first rodeo against Big Ten competition this season; their size and experience have already helped them pick up wins over UCLA and USC at neutral sites. They have been stellar defensively in recent weeks, ranking top 20 in adjusted efficiency and in the 98th percentile in defensive rating over the last five games. In the last month they are top 25 in forced turnover rate. Perhaps even more important is that New Mexico is among the best teams in the land at limiting offensive rebounds and second-chance points. The underdogs are capable of making this a low-scoring contest, which would obviously give them a better chance of covering. Michigan State let Bryant hang around for a while; the Spartans may allow New Mexico to hang around even longer. Give me the points.
Ole Miss ML over Iowa State (+190)
North Carolina looked like the North Carolina of old while humiliating San Diego State in the First Four. Then the Tar Heels ran into Ole Miss in the first round and looked like the Tar Heels of 2024-25. The Rebels jumped all over the Heels right from the tip and then held on down the stretch for a big SEC-over-ACC victory. Now the Rebs get to face an Iowa State squad that will be without second-leading scorer Keshon Gilbert for the entire tournament. Unsurprisingly, that wasn’t a problem against Lipscomb – but Ole Miss is an entirely different proposition. When you are less than 100 percent when going up against an opponent from the SEC, bad things tend to happen. Ole Miss is among the most experienced teams in the land and don’t be shocked if that helps them to an outright win and a spot in the Sweet 16.
