As the NCAA March Madness college basketball tournament begins this week, millions of Americans will likely enter free bracket challenges for the chance to win thousands of dollars, with more substantial rewards for filling out the first perfect bracket, a feat the NCAA says has “absurdly overwhelming” odds.

No one has ever picked a perfect March Madness bracket, a feat the NCAA says has “absurdly … [+] overwhelming” odds.

NCAA Photos via Getty Images

Key Facts

ESPN is hosting its annual Men’s Tournament Challenge with several randomly drawn prizes, including 20 grand prizes of $5,000 to those who correctly pick the national champion, 25 prizes of $1,000 for participants with who fill out at least 25 brackets and a $10,000 prize for participants who created a group with 10 entrants or more.

USA Today Sports’ bracket challenge offers $1 million to contestants who fill out a perfect bracket—meaning they correctly choose winners for all 67 games—and a $25,000 prize for the entry with the best bracket.

The NCAA hosts a Bracket Challenge Sweepstakes that awards two tickets to the 2026 men’s Final Four to the participant with the best bracket, included in a four-night trip with hotel accommodations, in addition to $1,500 for airfare and $750 in spending money, with the same prizes offered for contestants who complete brackets for the women’s tournament.

Yahoo Sports’ Bracket Madness challenge awards $25,000 to the contestant who most accurately picks each of the tournament’s 67 games.

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Who’s Offering A Trip To Mars?

Elon Musk’s X launched a bracket challenge that claims it will award a trip to Mars on SpaceX’s Starship to anyone who completes a perfect bracket. The winner can opt to decline the trip for several prizes, which include $250,000, an opportunity to train like a SpaceX astronaut and a viewing of a Starship launch, among other rewards. A $100,000 prize will be handed out to the person with the best bracket if there are no perfect brackets. Musk, who previously said he wanted to send humans to Mars by 2024, said earlier this week he planned to send rockets to the planet by 2026 and humans sometime between 2029 and 2031.

What Are Some Women’s March Madness Bracket Challenges?

ESPN hosts a similar Women’s Tournament Challenge with the same rewards, including the same randomly drawn grand prizes of $5,000 to those who correctly choose the national champion and $1,000 prizes for participants who fill out at least 25 brackets. USA Today Sports’ Women’s College Basketball Bracket Challenge awards $1 million for a perfect women’s bracket and $25,000 to the entry with the best bracket. The NCAA’s Bracket Challenge Sweepstakes hands out two tickets to the 2026 women’s Final Four to the participant with the best bracket, including $1,500 for airfare and $750 in spending money.

What’s Warren Buffet’s Bracket Challenge?

Berkshire Hathaway’s billionaire CEO Warren Buffett told The Wall Street Journal he will award a $1 million grand prize to any employee across Berkshire’s companies who picks at least 30 of the tournament’s 32 first round games correctly. If none of the brackets pick 30 games correctly, the employee with the most correct picks will win the $1 million prize, with runners-up receiving $100,000 each. Buffett, the sixth-wealthiest person in the world with a fortune valued at $162.8 billion, previously offered $1 billion to anyone who picked a perfect bracket.

What Are The Odds Of Picking A Perfect March Madness Bracket?

If chosen at random or by flipping a coin, the odds of choosing all 67 tournament games correctly are one in 9.2 quintillion, according to the NCAA. If choosing each game with some knowledge of college basketball, the NCAA says the odds improve to about one in 120.2 billion. In comparison, the odds of winning the lottery are many times better: Winning the Powerball jackpot has odds of one in 292.2 million, while the Mega Millions jackpot has odds of one in 302.6 million. It’s also many thousands of times less likely than being struck by lightning, an event with odds of less than one in 1 million, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Who Is Projected To Win?

DraftKings has Duke University as the favorite to win the tournament with a betting line of +320, meaning a $100 bet will yield a $320 profit. The University of Florida, Auburn University and the University of Houston have the next-highest odds at +380, +400 and +600, respectively. In ESPN’s bracket challenge, about 25% of participants chose Duke to win, while nearly 21% chose Florida and 11.1% picked Auburn. For the women’s tournament, the University of South Carolina is favored at +240, followed by the University of Connecticut (+250) and the University of California, Los Angeles (+600).

When Does March Madness Start?

The first games of the men’s tournament officially tip off Tuesday night, starting with St. Francis of Pennsylvania taking on Alabama State in a First Four matchup at 6:40 p.m. EDT, with the winner getting slotted into a No. 16 seed. Most bracket competitions do not include First Four games, though, which are played among the last few teams selected to make the tournament field. The main action starts with the formal first round Thursday, with eight-seeded Louisville taking on nine-seeded Creighton on CBS at 12:15 p.m. EDT in the first game of the first round. The first round of the women’s tournament tips off at 11:30 a.m. EDT on Friday.

Further Reading

Powerball Jackpot Now $416 Million—Here’s What The Winner Could Take Home After Taxes (Forbes)