The ball is tipped — but three games remain until men’s college basketball receives its one shining moment.
The NCAA Tournament’s Final Four begins Saturday with semifinal matchups between Houston and Duke and an all-SEC matchup featuring Florida and Auburn, with the winners facing off Monday in the national championship from San Antonio’s Alamodome. All four schools remaining started the tournament as top seeds in their region, only the second time that has happened in tournament history, and the first since 2008.
NBC News breaks down the factors that could decide the next national championship.
All four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four. Is that a good or bad thing for the game?
Greif: For the past decade there hasn’t exactly been a dearth of lower-seed Cinderellas to make the Final Four, and college basketball’s best attribute is its parity. Now, I’ll step down from my soapbox to say this: That hasn’t always led to compelling games once in the Final Four, however. And this season, with Florida, Duke, Auburn and Houston all looking a cut above during various stretches, the best basketball outcome fans could have received was watching these strength-on-strength semifinals.
Who doesn’t want to watch Duke’s historically efficient offense try to solve Houston’s top-ranked defense, or Auburn’s veteran-laden roster (led by player of the year candidate Johni Broome) attempt to derail Florida’s special season?
Nadkarni: Yes, it is good, especially for the men’s game. The one-and-done and the transfer portal have wreaked havoc on this sport, which is barely recognizable compared to what it was 20 years ago. Teams turn over their rosters too quickly for us to have any familiarity with who is on the floor, and the tournament was already plagued by a bunch of bad basketball and poor displays of shot making. At the very least, we deserve a Final Four with the best possible talent on the floor.
Which star are you most excited to watch and why?
Greif: L.J. Cryer, Houston.
What, expecting Duke star and presumptive No. 1 NBA draft pick Cooper Flagg? Cryer has already won a national championship with Baylor and his nearly 42 percent shooting on 3-pointers has injected badly needed offense into a Cougars team that has struggled to score in big moments under coach Kelvin Sampson. Cryer isn’t the biggest name left in the tournament, but he knows like few others left what it takes to win.
Nadkarni: Walter Clayton Jr., Florida
Clayton Jr. has been on an absolute heater so far this postseason. He scored 23 points in each of the Gators’ first two tournament games before dropping 30 in the Elite Eight. Clayton Jr.’s performance in Florida’s comeback win over Texas Tech was breathtaking, especially his late barrage of 3-pointers to seal it for the Gators. When it comes to this time of year, I want to watch a player who can catch fire and shoot the lights out of the ball. Clayton Jr. fits the bill, and Auburn will have its hands full trying to slow him down.
Team I’m most worried about
Greif: Florida. With just one loss since Feb. 1, the Gators might be the most talented team left. They also might be the one most likely to drive up its fans’ blood pressure, having flirted with disaster already twice in the tournament while trailing Connecticut late in the Sweet 16 and Texas Tech by double digits in the final minutes of the Elite Eight. That they emerged victorious is a credit to their resiliency and the playmaking under pressure of stars like star guard Clayton Jr., but it’s a worry they were in that position to begin with.
Nadkarni: Sorry, Houston, but good luck dealing with a Duke team loaded with NBA talent. The Blue Devils have been dominant this tournament, winning three of their four games by at least 20 points. Duke has more ways to beat opponents than anyone else left in the bracket.
For example, four starters had at least 14 points for the Blue Devils in their win over Arkansas. The much-hyped Flagg wasn’t even the team’s leading or second-leading scorer. Even if the Cougars stop Flagg, can they still stop Kon Knueppel or Khaman Maluach or even Tyrese Proctor from going off?
Final Four and title game prediction
Greif: Duke beats Houston 82-71 and Florida beats Auburn 75-73 in the Final Four.
Duke defeats Florida 90-82 to win the national championship.
Offenses don’t get more explosive than Duke, and the Blue Devils are deeper than just Flagg.
Nadkarni: Duke beats Houston 90-75, while Florida holds on to beat Auburn 79-76.
Then the Gators — yes, the Gators! — pull off the big upset and win 86-80 in the national championship.
Andrew Greif
