Region: East
Record: 22-12
Tournament ceiling: Elite Eight
Welcome to college basketball’s most confusing miniseries. At the beginning of the year, the Wildcats were 4-5 — although those five losses came against NCAA tournament teams (Wisconsin, West Virginia, Oklahoma, UCLA, Duke). They found themselves again and rattled off 13 wins in 14 games to sail to the top of their new conference, the Big 12. It didn’t last. Caleb Love (16.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.5 APG) and his teammates lost five of their final eight regular-season games. In that slump, they were one of the worst defensive teams from a major conference (92nd in adjusted defensive efficiency) and they also made just 29% of their 3s, per BartTorvik.com. Those late-season struggles have cost Arizona the momentum it craved entering the dance.
Purdue Boilermakers
Region: Midwest
Record: 22-11
Tournament ceiling: Elite Eight
The Boilermakers lost two-time Wooden Award winner Zach Edey off a squad that lost to Connecticut in the national championship game last season. Few teams immediately bounce back under those circumstances. But the Boilermakers may be equipped for it — if they can erase the memory of a late-season slide. Braden Smith, the Big Ten player of the year, is one of the best guards in the country and Trey Kaufman-Renn (19.7 PPG) has done an admirable job filling the void created by Edey’s absence. And yet, Purdue’s defense has suffered. What was one of the best defenses in the country last year ended the 2024-25 regular season winning just two of seven games and fell to 159th in adjusted defensive efficiency per BartTorvik.com. The sloppy finish has reduced some of the optimism about the Boilermakers’ dreams, but their early-season victory over Alabama has also proved the Boilermakers can play with any team in the country.
Maryland Terrapins
Region: West
Record: 25-8
Tournament ceiling: Final Four
If you’re looking for a Final Four sleeper, you’ve found one. Freshman Derik Queen (15.7 PPG, 9.2 RPG), a projected lottery draft pick with an old-school game, and Julian Reese (13.2 PPG, 9.3 RPG), the brother of WNBA standout Angel Reese, lead a team that won 11 of 13 games to end the regular season. The Terps also went 39% from 3 in that stretch. They’re a strong squad that found a rhythm late, which isn’t unusual when you consider they were starting a true freshman and three transfers. If point guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie can limit his turnovers, he can help the team with the ninth-best adjusted defensive efficiency make its first Final Four appearance since 2002, the year the Terps also won their first and only national championship.
5-seeds
Michigan Wolverines
Region: South
Record: 25-9
Tournament ceiling: Final Four
Even Vladislav Goldin (16.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.7 BPG) and Danny Wolf (12.9 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 1.4 BPG) did not think a pairing of two 7-footers — who together run pick-and-roll action and lead the Michigan offense — would work at first. The Wolverines quickly became one of the most balanced teams in the country and a Big Ten title contender, sitting at 20-5 overall and 12-2 in conference play on Feb. 16 before their season took in the final three weeks of the regular season, falling from top 40 to sub-230 in adjusted offensive efficiency and making just 22% of their 3-point attempts. Still, they played like a team capable of winning multiple games in March for much of the season. And they have a unique scheme with Wolf and Goldin — both All-Big Ten second-team selections — who will create problems for most opponents.
Oregon Ducks
Region: East
Record: 24-9
Tournament ceiling: Sweet 16
Dana Altman’s team had an odd first season in the Big Ten, finishing 10th in offensive efficiency and ninth in defensive efficiency within the league, but still managing to finish 12-8 in conference play. The Ducks introduction did come with a few privileges: They played Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois and Maryland only one time each, helping them carry a seven-game winning streak into the Big Ten tournament. And while the Ducks don’t have many sexy metrics, they did have the wins to warrant a solid seed, including over Alabama and Texas A&M. Ultimately, the Ducks successfully navigated one of the country’s best conferences and rallied down the stretch — do what you want with that information.
Clemson Tigers
Region: Midwest
Record: 27-6
Tournament ceiling: Elite Eight
Brad Brownell is now the ACC’s elder statesman, with Leonard Hamilton announcing his resignation earlier this season. For years, Brownell was at the center of hot seat rumors, but he signed a five-year contract worth $20 million after taking the Tigers to the Elite Eight last season. He no longer has veterans Joe Girard III and PJ Hall (now in the G League), but successfully hit the reset button through bigger roles for returnees Chase Hunter (16.0 PPG, 41% shooting from beyond the arc) and Ian Schieffelin (12.9 PPG, 9.3 RPG) as well as key contributions from transfers Viktor Lakhin (11.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 38% from 3) and Jaeden Zackery (11.3 PPG). Clemson won 14 of its final 15 regular-season games, including a win over Duke.
Memphis Tigers
Region: West
Record: 29-5
Tournament ceiling: Sweet 16
Penny Hardaway had an eventful preseason — he built a new staff after dismissing multiple assistants, an anonymous letter alleging major NCAA violations was sent to the school and customized shoes were stolen from his porch — but the drama didn’t follow the Tigers into the season. Led by American Athletic Conference player of the year PJ Haggerty and all-AAC first-team selection Tyrese Hunter, this group has given Hardaway his best chance in seven seasons at the helm to lead this program to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2009. (But erase all of this if Hunter, who was in a boot after suffering an injury in the AAC tournament semifinals, is unavailable to play this week.) As a player, Hardaway was the leader of a Memphis team that reached the Elite Eight — and this squad arguably has that potential. The Tigers have star power, a respectable top-50 defense and a bunch of shooters (39% from beyond the arc, No. 6 in the country). They could again make history with Hardaway, the AAC’s Coach of the Year.
6-seeds
Ole Miss Rebels
Region: South
Record: 22-11
Tournament ceiling: Sweet 16
The Rebels are top-30 in offense and defense entering their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2019. But there are concerns. They have one of the smaller teams in the field. And, “there aren’t enough ball-dominant players in this lineup,” according to EvanMiya.com. “This lineup may struggle to create offense.” The 84th-ranked team in scoring (77.8 PPG) has dealt with offensive droughts, but it’s also compensated with a careful approach to every possession. Ole Miss is ranked third nationally in turnover percentage (8.9 per game). It has wins over BYU, Louisville, Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee this season. And Chris Beard’s starting lineup of Jaylen Murray, Matthew Murrell, Dre Davis, Malik Dia and Sean Pedulla has an “A-minus” grade on defense, and a “B-plus” grade overall, on EvanMiya.com.
BYU Cougars
Region: East
Record: 24-9
Tournament ceiling: Elite Eight
The Cougars aren’t waiting for the arrival of A.J. Dybantsa — the No. 1 recruit of the 2025 class, who reportedly signed an $8.5 million NIL deal — to pursue a national title. In Kevin Young’s first season at the helm, the former Phoenix Suns assistant has successfully molded a program that has emerged as one of the country’s best over the past month: Between Feb. 11 and Thursday, when BYU beat Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals, the Cougars had the No. 1 offense at BartTorvik.com with 61.2% shooting from inside the arc and 39.2% from beyond it. All-Big 12 first-team honoree Richie Saunders (16.0 PPG, 44% from 3) led this late-season surge, while the 6-foot-9 Egor Demin (10.8 PPG, 5.6 APG) has grown more comfortable running point.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Region: Midwest
Record: 21-12
Tournament ceiling: Elite Eight
Illinois lost every key player from a group that made a run to the Elite Eight last season, including AP All-America third-team selection Terrence Shannon Jr. Yet, Brad Underwood put together another top-15 offensive unit that also actually plays better defense (40th in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom). This year’s star is Kasparas Jakucionis (15.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 4.7 APG), a 6-6 guard who is a projected lottery draft pick. Will Riley, a 6-8 forward, is a projected first-round pick, too. A late-season four-game winning streak that ended in the Big Ten quarterfinal has coincided with the return of Morez Johnson Jr. (7.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG) from a wrist injury that sidelined him for five games in February and March. But Underwood’s squad is healthy and connected at the right time.
Missouri Tigers
Region: West
Record: 22-11
Tournament ceiling: Elite Eight
Missouri’s 19-game losing streak to end the 2023-24 season now makes more sense. John Tonje, who is an All-America candidate at Wisconsin, was injured for most of his one season at Missouri. Caleb Grill (13.8 PPG, 40% from the arc) also missed most of last season due to injury. He’s back, the rest of the team has been healthy and Dennis Gates has orchestrated one of the greatest turnarounds in recent college basketball history. Grill, Duke transfer Mark Mitchell (14.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG) and Iowa transfer Tony Perkins (8.6 PPG) have anchored one of America’s best offensive teams (fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency) and helped this squad reach the NCAA tournament for the second time in three years. Wins over Kansas, Alabama and Florida were pivotal. Grill, Anthony Robinson and Tamar Bates all endured the losing streak a year ago and could have left but they didn’t. And they’ve been rewarded for that decision.
7-seeds
Marquette Golden Eagles
Region: South
Record: 23-10
Tournament ceiling: Sweet 16
You can look at Marquette’s 4-6 record over the last 10 regular-season games from one of two perspectives: Either the Golden Eagles hit a wall entering the toughest stretch of their schedule, with four matchups against St. John’s and UConn — or their weaknesses were exposed that could impact them in the NCAA tournament. This group has similarities to the Marquette teams that captured No. 2 seeds in the past two NCAA tournaments: It forces a lot of turnovers while not committing many itself, and it is efficient on offense (55% from inside the arc). It also doesn’t hurt that the Golden Eagles are led by an All-America candidate in Kam Jones (19.2 PPG, 6.0 RPG). But it’s worth noting that, entering the Big East tournament, this version of the Golden Eagles hadn’t defeated a top-50 KenPom team since Jan. 3 — and earlier statement wins over Wisconsin, Purdue and Maryland happened before Christmas.
Saint Mary’s Gaels
Region: East
Record: 28-5
Tournament ceiling: Sweet 16
Now in his 24th season, West Coast Conference Coach of the Year Randy Bennett will aim to lead the WCC regular-season champions to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2010. The Gaels’ top-15 defense will help, as will the trio that carried them to a 17-1 conference record: WCC Player of the Year Augustas Marciulionis (14.3 PPG, 6.1 APG), WCC Defensive Player of the Year Mitchell Saxen (10.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG) and WCC Sixth Man of the Year Mikey Lewis (8.5 PPG, 39% from beyond the arc).
UCLA Bruins
Region: Midwest
Record: 22-10
Tournament ceiling: Sweet 16
After falling to Michigan State at home en route to a 2-4 start to its first season in the Big Ten, Mick Cronin controversially called his team “soft.” But the Bruins responded with the resilience Cronin craved after a four-game losing streak in early January, winning 11 of their next 14 games to close the regular season and play their way into the NCAA tournament. Their résumé includes wins over Oregon, Arizona, Wisconsin, Gonzaga and Michigan State. And the Bruins rank inside the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency, forcing turnovers on nearly one-quarter of their opponents’ possessions this season. Tyler Bilodeau leads the team in scoring with 41% shooting from beyond the arc, while Kobe Johnson — brother of Atlanta Hawks standout Jalen Johnson — is the Bruins’ defensive star (1.7 SPG).
Kansas Jayhawks
Region: West
Record: 21-12
Tournament ceiling: Elite Eight
This is one of the most perplexing teams Bill Self has coached in Lawrence. The Jayhawks have all of the talent any coach would covet. Hunter Dickinson (17.6 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 1.3 BPG) should earn his third AP All-America spot. Veterans Dajuan Harris Jr. and KJ Adams Jr. were members of the 2022 national title team. Zeke Mayo, AJ Storr and Rylan Griffen were three of the top available transfers in the offseason. The preseason No. 1 team picked to win the Big 12 had a promising start featuring wins over Duke and Michigan State. But Kansas (60th in adjusted offensive efficiency since Feb. 1) ultimately finished sixth in the standings and lost to Arizona in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals, falling short of its ceiling. On paper, this is a national championship contender. But if you’ve watched Kansas at all this season, the Jayhawks look as disconnected as any edition out of Lawrence in recent memory.
8-seeds
Louisville Cardinals
Region: South
Record: 27-7
Tournament ceiling: Elite Eight
After Kenny Payne was fired following last season’s 8-24 finish, Louisville brass sought a new coach with the energy to restore the program and galvanize the fan base. It found the right person in Pat Kelsey, who spent the summer roaming the campus and urging students to come back to the YUM! Center to support the team. By the end of the year, the arena was packed, around a Louisville team that entered the ACC tournament with a 19-1 record in its previous 20 games. Star Chucky Hepburn, an all-ACC first team selection this season, has also enjoyed a turnaround (9.2 PPG at Wisconsin last season; 16.4 PPG at Louisville this year), while the Cardinals have sported a top-30 offense and defense all season — balance that’s fueled a tie for second place in the ACC standings behind Duke, just a year after they finished last.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Region: East
Record: 21-12
Tournament ceiling: Round of 32
Chris Jans has led Mississippi State to its third consecutive NCAA tournament for the first time since the early 2000s, when the program earned an invitation every year between the 2001-2002 and 2004-05 seasons. The Bulldogs don’t have any spectacular wins on their résumé, but they do have All-SEC second-team selection Josh Hubbard, who they will need a major effort from after finishing 8-10 in SEC play. He proved he is equipped for a starring role, averaging 17.3 PPG in those eight SEC victories. Another exceptional performance from Hubbard, who has scored 25 or more points in six games this season, could position the Bulldogs for their first NCAA tournament win since 2008.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Region: Midwest
Record: 25-8
Tournament ceiling: Elite Eight
A lot of this is familiar for the Zags. They won their 20th WCC tournament championship under Mark Few. They did it against rival Saint Mary’s — which had swept them in the regular season. What is not familiar is their path to the NCAA tournament. The Bulldogs were just 4-6 against top-50 KenPom teams this season. Three of those victories, against Baylor, Indiana and San Diego State, happened in November. The Zags have had few impressive moments since. Gonzaga just hasn’t resembled a legitimate national title contender. Working in its favor however are 58% 2-point shooting (a top-15 mark nationally) and a top-30 defense. It clearly has the personnel — Nolan Hickman, Graham Ike and Ryan Nembhard are all-WCC first-team selections — but hasn’t enjoyed the dominance of past iterations. This is, frankly, a difficult team to assess.
UConn Huskies
Region: West
Record: 23-10
Tournament ceiling: Elite Eight
UConn has been one of the wildest TV dramas of the season. The back-to-back national champions endured surprising losses, injuries and outbursts from head coach Dan Hurley — and that was all just during November’s Maui Invitational. The Huskies’ pursuit of a third consecutive title, which no team has done since John Wooden’s UCLA squads in the 1960s and 1970s, has been complicated by a massive drop in defensive efficiency: UConn fell from inside the top 10 in championship seasons into the 80s after losing multiple players to the 2024 NBA draft. They have seen improvement since the return of NBA draft prospect Liam McNeeley (14.5 PPG) from injury on Feb. 7, with opponents connecting on just 46% of their shots inside the arc over the past five weeks (35th in the country). With sophomore Solo Ball (14.7 PPG) and veteran Alex Karaban (14.6 PPG) also in the mix, UConn’s three-peat dream has not died yet.
9-seeds
Creighton Bluejays
Region: South
Record: 24-10
Tournament ceiling: Elite Eight
Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner (19.8 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.7 BPG) matched Patrick Ewing as the only other player to win the award four times, also passing the former Georgetown star in career blocks in conference play (248 to 247). After the team lost Pop Isaacs to a season-ending knee injury hours after he had scored 27 points in a Dec. 4 win over Kansas, Kalkbrenner and Steven Ashworth (16.5 PPG, 7.0 APG) stabilized a Creighton team that regrouped to secure Doug McDermott’s fifth consecutive NCAA tournament appearance. Rick Pitino deserved his Big East Coach of the Year honors, but McDermott’s rally — a year after losing his top-two scorers from a Sweet 16 team and months after his most promising transfer suffered a major injury eight games into this season — is also noteworthy.
Baylor Bears
Region: East
Record: 19-14
Tournament ceiling: Second Round
On paper, the Bears have it all this season. It just hasn’t worked as expected. VJ Edgecombe is a projected top-five pick in the upcoming NBA draft; the freshman just hasn’t been able to lift this team out of its valley. Jeremy Roach transferred to Baylor after a strong run with Duke; he’s dealt with injuries and has also been inconsistent. (No longer a starter, he scored just seven points in the Bears’ final two regular-season games.) The Bears have an abundance of talent on their roster. Norchad Omier (15.6 PPG, 10.7 RPG) is an all-Big 12 first-team selection, and Robert Wright III (11.7 PPG, 4.5 APG) joins Edgecombe on the all-Big 12 freshman squad. They also have an early-season victory over St. John’s. Still, they finished 10-10 in the Big 12 and snuck into the Dance.
Georgia Bulldogs
Region: Midwest
Record: 20-12
Tournament ceiling: Round of 32
Asa Newell (15.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG) is just 19 years old, but he has displayed a maturity that has allowed him to excel in America’s toughest conference. The 6-11 forward is a projected first-round draft pick for a reason. He’s a capable finisher at all spots on the court and he’s rated as an “Excellent” offensive performer (against man, against zone, in transition) and a “Very good” defender, per Synergy Sports data. He has been the catalyst for a Georgia team that beat St. John’s, Kentucky and Florida this season and won its final four games before falling to Oklahoma in the first round of the SEC tournament. During that winning streak, the Bulldogs were the No. 2 team in America on barttorvik.com. It appears Georgia has peaked at the right time to secure its first NCAA tournament appearance in a decade.
Oklahoma Sooners
Region: West
Record: 20-13
Tournament ceiling: Round of 32
Oklahoma picked a tough year to join the SEC, but it has still found a way to remain competitive, thanks to Jeremiah Fears, a projected top-10 draft pick. Yet, despite the presence of a lottery pick and quality nonconference wins over Arizona, Louisville and Michigan, the Sooners finished 6-12 in the SEC and needed their season-ending victory over rival (and fellow bubble team) Texas to seal the program’s first NCAA tournament appearance since 2021. That’s how tough the SEC has been this season: The Sooners had a defense that was ranked 14th in the 16-team SEC. Is Oklahoma a good team in a great conference or just an average team that got a few good wins earlier this year? We may find out soon.
10-seeds
New Mexico Lobos
Region: South
Record: 26-7
Tournament ceiling: Sweet 16
Rick Pitino wasn’t the only member of his family to win an award this season — his son, Richard Pitino, won Mountain West Coach of the Year after leading the Lobos to their first regular-season conference title since 2013 and first NCAA tournament appearance in a decade. And he did it despite losing Jamal Mashburn Jr. (22.0 PPG at Temple) and JT Toppin (18.4 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.3 BPG at Texas Tech) to the transfer portal in the offseason. Mountain West Player of the Year Donovan Dent (20.2 PPG) and Nelly Junior Joseph (13.8 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 1.6 BPG) were the returning sparks the Lobos needed for a 26-7 campaign that featured six wins against top-50 KenPom teams. They also own the conference’s top defense and are top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency nationally.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Region: East
Record: 20-12
Tournament ceiling: Round of 32
Mark Byington’s team did not do itself any favors with its loss to Texas in the first round of the SEC tournament. The Commodores also lacked any signature nonconference wins, though their league slate gave them opportunities to boost their résumé with victories (against Tennessee, Kentucky and Missouri) that few bubble teams could match to earn a trip to their first NCAA tournament since 2017. But their chances to advance beyond the opening weekend depend on a few factors. Can they improve their SEC-worst defense? Can they win if they don’t get prolific output from Jason Edwards (17.0 PPG)? And will turnovers continue to be a problem, with AJ Hoggard committing one on one-fifth of his possessions this season? There seem to be more questions than answers.
Utah State Aggies
Region: Midwest
Record: 26-7
Tournament ceiling: Round of 32
Every team in the country has been forced to rebuild its program year after year in the turbulent climate created by the transfer portal and NIL. It’s a more difficult task for the mid-majors, which often lose their best players to the power conferences. Jerrod Calhoun has found a way to keep succeeding. He has led Utah State to its third consecutive NCAA tournament appearance in his first season in Logan. It’s a quick recovery for a group that lost former head coach Danny Sprinkle and 2023-24 Mountain West Player of the Year Great Osobor, among others, from those tournament teams. But returnees Ian Martinez (16.9 PPG, 38% from 3) and Mason Falslev (14.7 PPG, 41.5% from 3) helped this team win its first 10 games as one of the top offensive units in America (16th in adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom). Considering the challenges most first-year coaches face, Utah State’s journey to the Big Dance has impressed.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Region: West
Record: 20-13
Tournament ceiling: Round of 32
John Calipari’s move from Kentucky to Arkansas was, by far, the biggest offseason story in college basketball. Equipped with one of the largest NIL budgets in the country, he assembled a team full of five-star prospects and elite transfers such as Johnell Davis, who led Florida Atlantic to the Final Four in 2023. But early injuries decimated the roster to the point the team couldn’t hold full practices before the season began. It lost Boogie Fland to a season-ending thumb injury in January (although Fland will reportedly try to play in the NCAA tournament after a miraculous recovery), and Adou Thiero has been dealing with a knee injury (they are the Hogs’ top two scorers). As a result, the Razorbacks had a bumpy ride, going 8-10 in the SEC — just sufficient to keep them in bubble territory. Despite making the tournament, the consensus is that Arkansas has, thus far, failed to meet expectations after one of the top coaches of the era accepted this job.
11-seeds
San Diego State Aztecs
Region: South
Record: 21-9
Tournament ceiling: Sweet 16
In a 73-70 overtime loss to San Diego State in the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas in November, Houston made 46% of its 3-point attempts and collected 41% of its second-chance opportunities. Normally, those kinds of numbers work in a team’s favor. Not that time. San Diego State forced 12 turnovers and corralled the Cougars, allowing them just 32% shooting from inside the arc, their lowest mark of this season. That’s how good this Aztecs defense can be. Behind top scorer Nick Boyd (13.2 PPG), one of Florida Atlantic’s Final Four heroes from 2023, the Aztecs have forced turnovers on one-fifth of their Mountain West opponents’ possessions this season. But Brian Dutcher’s squad was also a middle-of-the-pack offensive team in league play, which could be a problem for the Aztecs.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Region: South
Record: 22-13
Tournament ceiling: Round of 32
From 1975 to 2009, North Carolina went to all but two NCAA tournaments. But the Tar Heels entered this year’s ACC tournament facing the possibility that they might miss the Dance for a second time in three years — an unprecedented moment for a program of their standing. These Tar Heels have not lived up to preseason expectations, even with RJ Davis (17.3 PPG), the nation’s only returning AP first-team All-American. They have been mostly average since five-year standout Armando Bacot graduated, and Hubert Davis failed to sign another elite big man from the transfer portal in the offseason to replace him. They did win six of their last seven conference games and two ACC tournament games — which also isn’t saying much as this is one of the worst years for the ACC in recent memory. No matter what happens next, North Carolina appears to be at a crossroads.
VCU Rams
Region: East
Record: 28-6
Tournament ceiling: Second Round
Seven years ago, Ryan Odom’s life changed when he led UMBC to an upset over Virginia, the first time a 16-seed defeated a 1-seed — the No. 1 overall seed, too — in NCAA tournament history. The 50-year-old head coach has had the Midas touch since. VCU is the third Division I and fourth collegiate program (including Division II Lenoir Rhyne) he’s led to the NCAA tournament. The Rams, who own the Atlantic 10’s best offense and defense, won their second conference tournament championship since 2015. Entering the Atlantic 10 tournament title game, the team held its opponents to a 44.7% clip inside the arc (11th in the country, per barttorvik.com) after Luke Bamgboye (2.1 BPG) entered the starting lineup in late December.
Texas Longhorns
Region: Midwest
Record: 19-15
Tournament ceiling: XX
Similar to Oklahoma, Texas entered the SEC in a historic year for the league. The Longhorns had a 6-12 record in SEC play and won just five of 18 games against top-50 KenPom teams in the regular season. They lacked the quality wins the Sooners had accrued. And the loss to their rivals in the final game of the regular season was billed as an elimination game in the NCAA tournament conversation. Yet, they did enough in the SEC tournament to convince the selection committee to offer up an invitation. A sub-50 team in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, Texas does have Tre Johnson (20.2 PPG, 40% from beyond the arc), a 6-6 guard who is a projected lottery draft pick and will be a handful for any opponent.
Xavier Musketeers
Region: Midwest
Record: 21-11
Tournament ceiling: Sweet 16
From Jan. 28, 2023 to Nov. 4, 2024, 6-9 standout Zach Freemantle didn’t play college basketball because of a lingering foot injury. “It gets pretty dark,” Freemantle told reporters at Big East media day in the preseason. “You’re watching your team every day. You’re watching them lose. You’re working out every day, but you’re not doing what you want to do. It gets hard.” But, he’s been healthy this season, which has been great news for Xavier. Freemantle averaged 19.8 PPG during the Musketeers’ seven-game winning streak to end the regular season. And the X-men are now making their second trip to the NCAA tournament in three years under Sean Miller. They have also been one of America’s top 3-point shooting teams (39%). This group beat UConn and Marquette in league play, and since Feb. 1, has also played top-25 defense.
Drake Bulldogs
Region: West
Record: 30-3
Tournament ceiling: Sweet 16
Just like the guy beefing with Kendrick Lamar, this Drake team has encountered adversity, with both head coach Darian DeVries (two-time coach of the year in the MVC) and his son Tucker (back-to-back MVC player of the year) leaving for West Virginia in the offseason. And yet, unlike the Canadian rapper, the Bulldogs found a way to succeed. Under first-year head coach Ben McCollum — who came over from D-II and was named MVC Coach of the Year this season — the Bulldogs won 30 games and earned legit Cinderella status ahead of the NCAA tournament. They’ve been a top-40ish defensive team since early January. They’ve also forced turnovers on 22% of their opponents’ possessions over the past two months. Bennett Stirtz, who followed McCollum from D-II Northwest Missouri State, is a star. And they have a double-digit win over Vanderbilt, proof that they can compete with power-conference foes.
12-seeds
UC San Diego Tritons
Region: South
Record: 30-4
Tournament ceiling: XX
On Jan. 19, Saquon Barkley rushed for 205 yards in the Philadelphia Eagles’ 28-22 win over the Los Angeles Rams in the NFL playoffs. That was also the last time UC San Diego lost a game. The Tritons will enter the NCAA tournament on a 15-game winning streak, tied for the nation’s longest, after defeating UC Irvine in the Big West tournament championship. Picked to finish third in the league’s preseason poll, they instead won the Big West regular season and conference tournament championships. Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones (19.7 PPG), a 6-6 guard from New Zealand, is the Big West Player of the Year and the leader of a team that finished with the league’s top offense (57.1% clip inside the arc) and defense (forcing turnovers on 23.7% of their opponents’ possessions in league play).
Liberty Flames
Region: East
Record: 28-6
Tournament ceiling: First Round
Ritchie McKay’s coaching career began as an assistant at Washington in 1988. Nearly 40 years later, he’s enjoying his most fruitful chapter yet, in his second stint at Liberty (he was head coach from 2007-2009, too). The Flames team sealed their sixth conference regular season championship in seven seasons with a 79-67 victory over Jacksonville State, with Kaden Metheny and Taelon Peter combining to score 41 points. But they almost lost the chance; Saturday’s game was delayed for nearly an hour after a leaky roof during a major storm in Huntsville, Alabama, left officials scrambling. Once the teams returned to the floor, however, Liberty (No. 5 in 3-point shooting at 40%) subsequently finished 12-for-20 from beyond the arc.
McNeese Cowboys
Region: Midwest
Record: 27-6
Tournament ceiling: Sweet 16
Three years ago, Will Wade was ostracized from the sport after LSU fired him following allegations of major NCAA violations. He has restored his career at McNeese, where he has led the program to 57 wins over two years and its second consecutive Southland tournament championship and NCAA tournament berth. McNeese swept all of the conference awards again, too: Coach of the Year (Wade), Player of the Year (Javohn Garcia, averaging 13.0 PPG and 1.5 SPG) and Defensive Player of the Year (Christian Shumate, averaging 1.3 BPG). In league play, McNeese had the best offense (39% from beyond the arc) and defense (forced turnovers on 22.4% of its opponents’ possessions, per KenPom), too. All of this could lead to another high-major job offer for Wade, and soon.
Colorado State Rams
Region: West
Record: 25-9
Tournament ceiling: Sweet 16
After losing to New Mexico on Dec. 28, Colorado State lost just three games — all to top-60 KenPom teams on the road — and challenged the Lobos for the Mountain West regular-season championship. Niko Medved’s team has also had one of the best offenses since New Year’s Eve, shooting 58% from inside the arc (17th nationally) and 40% from 3 (sixth nationally). They were the third-best defensive team in the Mountain West, impressive considering the two best teams — UNM and San Diego State — are both top-20 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. If Colorado State continues to excel in the postseason, Nique Clifford, a 6-6 wing who’s averaging 18.4 PPG, 9.7 RPG and 4.4 APG while connecting on 39% of his 3-point attempts, could become a household name.
13-seeds
Yale Bulldogs
Region: South
Record: 22-7
Tournament ceiling: Round of 32
In 2017, the Ivy League decided to make the switch from awarding its regular-season champion the automatic berth to hosting its own tournament to determine its NCAA tournament representative. Since then, Princeton and Yale have won every year, except one (Penn, 2018). Which is why it’s no surprise that Yale, the Ivy League regular season champion, has secured its third NCAA tournament berth over the past four seasons under James Jones. Last season, the Bulldogs beat Auburn in the first round. And although the star of that team Danny Wolf transferred to Michigan, Bez Mbeng (13.4 PPG,. 5.4 RPG, 5.9 APG, 1.8 SPG) was named Ivy League player of the year — and he’s not even their top scorer. Both John Poulakidas (19.3 PPG) and Nick Townsend (15.4 PPG) are also averaging double figures this season.
Akron Zips
Region: East
Record: 28-6
Tournament ceiling: Round of 32
For the third time in four years, Akron head coach John Groce has led his team to the NCAA tournament. But this trip might be bittersweet for the 53-year-old head coach, who had to outduel his brother, Miami (OH) coach Travis Steele — yes, his actual brother — to win the MAC’s automatic bid. Family drama aside, Akron has only lost one game since Dec. 30. During that 21-1 rally, the Zips have made 60% of their shots inside the arc (a top-three mark in America) and 38% of their 3-point attempts. They also won 11 conference games by double digits. With Nate Johnson — the MAC player of the year who’s scored 19 points or more in eight games this season — Akron will be a tough matchup for any opponent in the field.
High Point Panthers
Region: Midwest
Record: 29-5
Tournament ceiling: Sweet 16
This is the kind of dangerous double-digit seed that will give opposing coaches nightmares. After winning the Big South regular-season title a year ago, the Panthers fell short of a berth with an overtime loss to Longwood in the conference tournament semifinals. This year, however, they finished the job under second-year head coach Alan Huss (Big South Coach of the Year) and won both the conference’s regular-season championship and the tournament. Led by Kimani Hamilton (13.4 PPG) and Kezza Giffa (14.8 PPG), both all-Big South first-team selections, High Point enters the NCAA tournament with the nation’s longest winning streak at 14 games. During the streak (they last lost two weeks before the Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis trade), the Panthers connected on 60% of their 2s and 37% of their 3s, per barttorvik.com.
Grand Canyon Lopes
Region: West
Record: 26-7
Tournament ceiling: Round of 32
Bryce Drew has lived a few lives. He was the hero who made a miraculous shot to lead Valparaiso to a win over Ole Miss in the 1998 NCAA tournament. He then was a professional player in the NBA and overseas. Then he worked his way up to earn the Vanderbilt job, but was dismissed in 2019. Today, he’s one of the most consistent and successful non-power conference coaches in the country. With his team’s win over Utah Valley in the WAC tournament championship game, Drew is now responsible for every WAC regular season title (two) and WAC tournament championship (three) in Grand Canyon history. After last year’s win over Saint Mary’s in the first round, all-WAC first team selection Tyon Grant-Foster (14.6 PPG, 1.5 BPG) and a Grand Canyon team with a top-60 defense hope to advance again.
14-seeds
Lipscomb Bisons
Region: South
Record: 25-9
Tournament ceiling: First Round
Lennie Acuff, Lipscomb’s 60-year-old head coach, has found success at the NAIA, Division II and Division I levels. He’s an eight-time Gulf South Conference (D-II) Coach of the Year. He’s also made three trips to the Sweet 16 and two trips to the Elite Eight at the Division II level. This season, he’s helped the Bisons — yep, with an “s” — reach the Division I NCAA tournament for just the second time in school history after winning the Atlantic Sun tournament. If we’re being honest, there isn’t a lot of convincing evidence to believe they’ll advance. In their two matchups against power-conference teams this season, Arkansas and Kentucky, they lost by a combined 45 points. Then again, they’ve also been red-hot since Feb. 1 (11-1), making 57% of their shots inside the arc and 41% from beyond it.
Montana Grizzlies
Region: East
Record: 25-9
Tournament ceiling: Sweet 16
If you’re looking for possible Cinderellas, you should pay attention to teams that recently turned a corner. Montana fits that bill, winning 14 of its past 15 games. Travis DeCuire, who was a star for the Grizzlies in the early 1990s, has led his team to its third NCAA tournament appearance since he was hired in 2014. His starting lineup — All-Big Sky first-team honoree Joe Pridgen, Brandon Whitney, Malik Moore, Kai Johnson and Te’Jon Sawyer — has registered 125.7 points per 100 possessions. (For contrast: The Cleveland Cavaliers, the NBA’s top offense, are at 121.8.) That output has flipped the Grizzlies into one of the country’s top offensive units entering the tournament: Since Jan. 20, they have been a top-40 offense, making 60.9% of their shots inside the arc and 42.1% from beyond it — both the No. 2 marks nationally at BartTorvik.com over that stretch.
Troy Trojans
Region: Midwest
Record: 23-10
Tournament ceiling: First round
In 2018, UT Arlington fired Scott Cross following a 12-year reign. The school said it needed new “energy,” even though Cross had won 72 games in his last three seasons with the program and led it to its only NCAA tournament appearance in school history. This year, Cross led Troy, his new team, to a share of the Sun Belt regular-season title and the third NCAA tournament appearance in that school’s history. Tayton Conerway, Sun Belt Player of the Year, has been Superman for a program that held its opponents to a 42.3% clip inside the arc (No. 5 in America) over the final month of the season. Meanwhile, UT Arlington has had just one 20-win season since Cross left. So it’s all worked out for Cross, who is now with a Troy squad that has lost just one game since Feb. 8 and won its conference tournament games by an average of 16 points.
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Region: West
Record: 27-7
Tournament ceiling: Round of 32
At just 38 years old, Takayo Siddle has had a strong start to his head coaching career. He won just seven games in his first year (2020-21) at UNCW, but followed that pandemic season with four consecutive campaigns of at least 21 wins, for a 99-victory tally punctuated with the program’s first CAA tournament championship and NCAA tournament appearance in eight years. The Seahawks have been a top-60 offensive team (56% clip inside the arc) since Jan. 16, the start of a 15-2 stretch, according to barttorvik.com. This berth is a major achievement for guard Donovan Newby (14.6 PPG) and his teammates. It could also be the last time Siddle coaches that roster: expect offers this offseason for one of the top coaches in the country under the age of 40.
15-seeds
Bryant Bulldogs
Region: South
Record: 23-11
Tournament ceiling: First round
Thirty years ago, Phil Martelli began his coaching journey at St. Joseph’s, where he led the Hawks to the Elite Eight (2004). In 2025, his son Phil Martelli Jr. will enjoy his first postseason run as Bryant’s head coach. In just his second season in Smithfield, Martelli has led Bryant to the NCAA tournament for the second time in program history since it first became eligible as a Division I team. He was named America East’s coach of the year after the Bulldogs defeated opponents by an average of 12.8 points, holding them to 68.7 PPG (the league’s No. 1 scoring defense). In the conference championship game, St. Bonaventure transfer Barry Evans — America East newcomer of the year — finished with 19 points and seven rebounds.
Robert Morris Colonials
Region: East
Record: 26-8
Tournament ceiling: First round
Twelve years ago, Andy Toole led Robert Morris to an NIT victory over Kentucky, a year after the John Calipari-led Wildcats won the national title. This year, the Horizon League Coach of the Year snapped the program’s 10-year NCAA tournament drought, with Alvaro Folgueiras, a 6-9 forward and league Player of the Year (14.3 PPG, 42% from 3) anchoring the Colonials’ 10-game winning streak entering Selection Sunday. On EvanMiya.com, Folgueiras’ BPR — a measurement of a player’s impact on offense and defense when he’s on the court — is higher than that of Georgia star Asa Newell, Memphis star PJ Haggerty and projected lottery draft pick Ace Bailey (Rutgers). Folgueiras could also be the catalyst for another Horizon League postseason victory: The conference has claimed an NCAA tournament win in two of the past three editions.
Wofford Terriers
Region: Midwest
Record: 19-15
Tournament ceiling: First Round
A 51-point loss at Duke on Nov. 16 was Wofford’s worst of the season. But in that game, Corey Tripp, a 6-3 point guard, and Kyler Filewich, a 6-9 center, combined to score 24 points (9-for-15) in the defeat to one of America’s best. Perhaps those stats gave the duo confidence, because Tripp earned all-Southern Conference second-team honors and Filewich all-Southern Conference third-team honors on the way to leading Wofford to its first conference tournament championship and NCAA tournament appearance since 2019. The Terriers were hot and cold in conference action and never won more than three games in a row. During the SoCon tournament, however, they made 44% of their 3s — an improvement from 34% in league play. They were also dominant down the stretch, and won their conference tournament games by an average of 13 points.
Omaha Mavericks
Region: West
Record: 21-12
Tournament ceiling: First round
Omaha left no doubt about its status as the Summit League’s representative in the NCAA tournament with its 85-75 victory over St. Thomas-Minnesota in the conference championship game. Entering the matchup, it had already earned the NCAA tournament berth because St. Thomas is still going through its four-year Division I transition and not yet eligible. Now that the Mavericks are in the field, they will be easy to root for in their first Division I NCAA tournament appearance. Picked to finish eighth in the nine-team Summit League, they have Marquel Sutton, a 6-8 forward who averaged 19.1 PPG and 8.0 RPG on the way to being named the conference player of the year. Don’t be surprised if you see news of head coach Chris Crutchfield, the Summit League Coach of the Year, being pursued by schools with open jobs this offseason.
16-seeds
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash
Region: South
Record: 16-17
Tournament ceiling: First Round
Every year the field is stacked with storylines worthy of a Disney movie. But head coach Rob Krimmel and his Red Flash are the most interesting. Let us explain: Krimmel was a guard for St. Francis (1996-2000) who shot 40% from the 3-point line. Then he became an assistant coach at his alma mater for the next 12 years. Then he was hired as head coach in 2012. He has since worked to lead his team back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1991. This season, after nearly three decades with this program, he has achieved his dream. Riley Parker (13.6 PPG, 40% from 3) leads a group that upset the favorite to win the NEC tournament championship — extending a six-game winning streak — after being picked to finish last in the conference entering 2024-25.
Alabama State Hornets
Region: South
Record: 19-15
Tournament ceiling: First Round
Along with Penny Hardaway, another member of Memphis’s 1992 Elite Eight group will be a head coach in the NCAA tournament this year. Tony Madlock averaged 9.4 PPG and started all 34 games for those Tigers and though his Hornets this season didn’t have the same overwhelming talent, its sheer will helped with a massive season turnaround. On Feb. 8, the Hornets were 9-14 overall, and 5-5 in the SWAC, before winning 10 of their next 11. Madlock will enjoy this NCAA tournament trip with his son, starter and all-SWAC second team selection TJ Madlock (12.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG). This is also the Hornets’ first NCAA tournament for the first time since 2011.
Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers
Region: East
Record: 22-12
Tournament ceiling: First round
Donny Lind was the video coordinator for VCU when the Rams made their miraculous run to the Final Four in 2011. The 38-year-old head coach has now pulled off a few upsets of his own in his first season in Frederick County, including leading the Mountaineers to their first conference title in five years. Mount St. Mary’s had finished in a tie for fourth place in the regular season but defeated Marist and Merrimack in the quarterfinals and semifinals, respectively, before taking down Iona in the title game. Arlandus Keyes, a 6-2 guard, missed three games prior to the MAAC tournament due to injury. But he was the hero in the tournament, averaging 12.7 PPG and shooting 47% from 3.
American University Eagles
Region: East
Record: 22-12
Tournament ceiling: First round
Matt Rogers saved his best for last. In his first two years at American, the 6-9 center was a combined 2-for-24 from beyond the arc. Now, in his fifth season, he’s a certified sharpshooter (41%) who averaged 16.8 PPG and 5.5 RPG and was named to the all-Patriot League first team. He had 25 points in the tournament championship victory over Navy that earned the Eagles their fourth Division I NCAA tournament appearance, and their first since 2014. His emergence is one of the country’s greatest stories for a player. American’s success is also significant for coach Duane Simpkins, who arrived in D.C. last season and has his group shooting 76.1% from the free throw line.
SIU Edwardsville Cougars
Region: Midwest
Record: 22-11
Tournament ceiling: First round
There are a lot of stories about this one. Coach Brian Barone hung a pair of scissors above the team’s locker room when he was hired in 2019, in anticipation of the moment he and his team experienced last week when they won the Ohio Valley Conference tournament championship and made history. On top of that, SIUE’s success has been a family affair: 6-1 guard Ray’Sean Taylor was named OVC Player of the Year and finished with 20 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists in the 69-48 victory over Southeast Missouri in the conference tournament title game. His cousin, Brian Taylor II, earned a spot on the all-OVC second team after averaging 12.0 PPG. He is also one of America’s top shooters (47% from 3). This has been an incredible run for SIUE, which is making its first Division I NCAA tournament appearance, 17 years after it made the transition from Division II.
Norfolk State Spartans
Region: West
Record: 24-10
Tournament ceiling: First Round
It was a wild finish in Norfolk State’s 66-65 win over South Carolina State for the MEAC tournament title: SC State’s Caleb McCarty tied the score, but didn’t realize it, and immediately committed a foul, putting Norfolk State at the free throw line in the final seconds. That shouldn’t diminish what Robert Jones III’s team has accomplished this season. This is the Spartans’ third trip to the NCAA tournament under Jones over the past five years. Brian Moore Jr. (18.5 PPG, 41% from 3) is one of the best players Jones has had on his roster during his 12-year tenure. This season alone, Moore has had eight games with at least 24 points. Overall, the team has shot 57% from inside the arc during MEAC play. It’s also won 12 of its past 14 contests.
