Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.

Welcome to The Athletic’s 2025 Men’s NCAA Tournament projections, where you’ll find every team’s chances of advancing through each weekend of March Madness and cutting down the nets in San Antonio on April 7. These projections are based on 200,000 simulations of the 68-team bracket, which factors in a team’s projected strength as well as its path to the national title. All projections are rounded to the nearest whole number. You can read more about the model at the bottom of the page. The projections will be updated after the completion of every tournament game.

The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; Jacob Kupferman, Alex Slitz / Getty Images)